Fadden – Australia 2013

LNP 14.2%

Incumbent MP
Stuart Robert, since 2007.

Geography
Fadden covers northern parts of the Gold Coast. The seat stretches as far south as Ernest, Labrador and Biggera Waters, and extends north to the Logan River.

History
Fadden was created for the 1977 election as a seat straddling the southern fringe of Brisbane and the northern Gold Coast as a marginal Liberal seat. It has been won by the Liberal Party at every election bar one, and has become much safer through the 1990s as it contracted into the Gold Coast.

Fadden was first won in 1977 by Liberal MP Donald Cameron. Cameron had previously won the marginal seat of Griffith in 1966, and held it until Fadden’s creation in 1977. Cameron held Fadden for two terms, losing it in 1983 to Labor candidate David Beddall. Cameron won the neighbouring seat of Moreton at a by-election eight months later and held it until his defeat in 1990.

Beddall moved to the new seat of Rankin in 1984, which he held until his retirement in 1998. Fadden returned to the Liberal Party, electing David Jull, who had previously held Bowman from 1975 to 1983. Jull was appointed to John Howard’s first ministry in 1996, but was forced to resign as a minister in 1997 due to his failure to prevent travel rorts by other MPs. He remained  on the backbenches for the remainder of the Howard government, and retired in 2007.

The seat of Fadden was won in 2007 by Liberal candidate Stuart Robert, and he was re-elected as the LNP candidate in 2010.

Candidates

  • Patrina Maizey (Greens)
  • Jeremy Fredericks (Family First)
  • Jim MacAnally (Palmer United Party)
  • Bill Lawrence (Katter’s Australian Party)
  • Maurie Carroll (Independent)
  • Stewart Boyd (One Nation)
  • Nicole Lessio (Labor)
  • Stuart Robert (Liberal National)

Assessment
Fadden is a safe LNP seat.

2010 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Stuart RobertLNP42,92558.33+1.72
Rana WatsonALP20,11027.33-6.24
Graeme MaizeyGRN6,8639.33+4.92
Barrie NicholsonFF2,5133.41+1.36
Ian RossiterON1,1811.60+0.79

2010 two-candidate-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Stuart RobertLNP47,23664.19+3.76
Rana WatsonALP26,35635.81-3.76
Polling places in Fadden at the 2010 federal election. Central in blue, North in yellow, South in red, West in green. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Fadden at the 2010 federal election. Central in blue, North in yellow, South in red, West in green. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into four areas: central, north, south and west.

The LNP won a majority in all four areas, ranging from 58.3% in the south to 66.7% in the centre of the seat.

Voter groupGRN %LNP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
West8.4965.5519,39626.36
South11.8558.3215,17420.62
Central7.2866.6813,74418.68
North9.2462.594,3065.85
Other votes9.6365.8520,97228.50
Two-party-preferred votes in Fadden at the 2010 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Fadden at the 2010 federal election.

8 COMMENTS

  1. Surprised there’s not been any discussion here, yet.

    Any indication on how this seat is going to play, in terms of swing and primary votes? Are minor parties expecting strong performances here? I could certainly see PUP drawing a reasonable portion of the vote, for instance.

    My personal instinct is that we might see Labor gain a couple of points in primary vote (say, to 30%), Greens hold steady at 9%, FF maybe drop a point to 2.5%, and then PUP pick up the ON votes as well as another 3-4% for a total of around 5%. KAP should pick up a couple of points, too – let’s say 2%. This would leave the Liberals getting 51.5% primary vote.

  2. PUP vote might be higher here than the national and Qld average since it overlaps the state seat of Gaven, held by Alex Douglas who is PUP’s one state MP. That would mean PUP has a better chance of manning polling booths

  3. My parents live here, and they said the talk is PUP should poll. They are sick of the major two parties. But will they vote outside their comfort zone on polling day?

  4. No doubt that the LNP will hold this seat with an increased margin. I think PUP will get a respectable proportion of the vote (as they will across the Gold Coast), but no where near enough for the LNP to lose.

  5. No doubt they will hold it, Macca. Increased margin is less obvious, though. I actually think this will be a seat with some erosion in the margin due to the minor party vote – particularly, I think KAP will probably end up preferencing Labor here, and they’ll probably draw a respectable portion of the vote in the north and west. PUP should do well in the south and east, but we have no idea how their preferences will end up flowing. Overall, I think there will be a net swing to Labor of 1-2%, but only due to preferences – I think Labor’s primary vote will drop.

  6. I agree with most of your comments, particularly regarding Labor’s vote dropping. They haven’t been campaigning well here at all.

    I agree that KAP will do better in the north – but it’s only 6% of the seat’s votes, so even if they take 20% of the vote there, and assume all their votes come from the LNP and preferences flow to the ALP:LNP, it would still only represent a 1.2% swing seat-wide. They’re very generous (read: unrealistic) assumptions against the LNP and a decrease in Labor’s vote will probably result in a swing to the LNP greater than any losses caused by KAP.

    I think the vast majority of PUP preferences will flow to the LNP, so I can’t see too much in the way of losses there.

  7. Prediction in the Gold Coast Bulletin that Labor could fall to as little as 10% in Fadden.

    I find that hard to believe, but PUP does have a candidate with a broad profile and I could see Labor falling to between 15 and 20%.

Comments are closed.