Next up on booth map of the day, I’m looking at two seats that were previously considered safe Labor seats, but were very narrowly retained against independent challengers: Bean in southern Canberra and Fremantle in Western Australia.
For each map I’ve shown the Labor vs Independent 2CP map (but no 2CP swing map), primary vote maps for the independent, Labor and Liberal, and primary vote swing maps for Labor and Liberal.
First, to Bean, where Jessie Price currently trails Labor’s David Smith by 599 votes, achieving 49.7% of the 2CP vote after a primary vote of 26.4%.
The 2CP map isn’t particularly convincing one way or the other. The election-day booths leaned towards Jessie Price, but no booth leaned much one way or the other. Labor tended to win booths at the northern and southern end of the seat, but (apart from Tharwa) no booth got above 55% either way.
There was a more interesting pattern looking at the Labor and Price primary vote maps. It seems like Labor had a higher vote along the eastern spine, while Price’s primary was higher in the west.
Labor lost primary votes almost everywhere, unsurprisingly, although some booths at the southern end around Tuggeranong did show small swings to Labor.
As for Fremantle, there’s a much clearer pattern on the 2CP map, with Hulett winning booths in the north-west, and Labor in the south-east. The centre of the seat is a mixed picture.
The same north-west/south-east pattern can be detected in the Labor and Price primary vote figures, and Labor suffered the biggest primary vote swings in Beaconsfield – these suburbs are in the north-west of the seat, but not right in the upper north-west around Fremantle itself.
@Ben, great maps, by the way. I was hoping I could zoom right out and see the Norfolk Island PPVC and Election Day numbers, but alas! they are not visible.
On another note, while it’s not Dixville Notch, New Hampshire, could a Norfolk Island psephologist (or journalist or hotelier) start up a “First in the Nation” tradition from the Burnt Pine polling place ( https://maps.app.goo.gl/Rn3NXN7eoscau5bF9 ) or the lobby of a nearby hotel from 6pm NI-time (1 hour ahead of the East Coast) for the 2028 election?
Both Hulett and Price would be wise to run again in 2028. Price would probbly benefit from the upcoming redistribution
At the same time, a second go at a seat invites more scrutiny so it’s not all one way traffic for independents. Caz Heise and Alex Dyson saw little change (slightly backwards for Heise). Ryan and Daniel ended up going backwards despite being incumbents.
they could be a good chance depending on what happens in the next 3 years
If the libs/Nats don’t sort themselves out then community independents in safe labor seats could offer a good alternative to voters that might want to keep Labor in check
Because the coalition weren’t the incumbent government. Bean is gonn get trimmed and the only place to do that is I the north. Il have a look at the numbers but an ideal place would be along the molongia River and along Hindmarsh drive would be ideal. Also