Today’s blog post will be short. I’m creating this as an open thread to make your predictions about how the result will go.
I’ll be back with an open thread for election day tomorrow and there will be a liveblog on the night, although I will primarily be contributing to the Guardian’s results liveblog and seat-calling efforts. I’ll then be back with analysis on Sunday, and I’ll be recording a podcast with Kevin Bonham on Sunday afternoon to get out as quickly as possible.
I’d also like to throw in a plug for my Patreon. This has been a busy and intense election and I wouldn’t have been able to cover it the way I have without the support of Patreon donors – blog posts nearly every day and six pre-election podcasts. Patreon have levelled off now that I don’t have a paywalled federal election guide to view, but I do have my guide to the Victorian election and will soon have the guide to the NSW election. So if you’ve been thinking of signing up, now would be a great time to do it.
An absolute landslide for Labor. Lots of new ‘local’ Independents and Morrison and co battling to get 58/151. Then foolishly Dutton as leader of the Opposition.
14% of australians are in a union. labor keeps running candidates who are labor hacks. no wonder their primary vote keeps droppin
Whatever the results, I think they will be much closer to what the polls are saying this year. This will be a contrast to 2019, where the “failure” of the polls was quite possibly a “spin-off” from the fact that the pollsters were assuming that One Nation would run in every seat, whereas they only ran in 59 seats. The prediction was roughly 7% Nation-wide, but their actual was just over 3%.
Let’s a mug’s game of predictions. This is my genuine prediction.
Labor gains- Leichardt Brisbane Reid Robertson Braddon Bass Boothby Swan
Independent gains – Goldstein Hinkler
Line ball but I am sticking to Coalition holds – Page Ryan Longman Bennelong North Sydney Wentworth Chisholm Kooyong Pearce Banks
Wildcards where I expect no change but would not be shocked Parramatta Fowler Nicholls Werriwa Blair Lingari.
If Labor is going really well then nearly all of the line balls go to them or teals and none of the wildcats are in play. You could.rven see Hasluck Lindsey Dickson Flynn Deakin Casy come into it.
If I and most polls and analysts are wrong and Coalition is getting a majority or close to it due to thai suburban strategy then I expect Parramatta Blair Corangmite etc come into play. Labor would probably still win Brisbane, Leichardt and Reid but not much else though teals could still pick up several of their targets .
Again I don’t believe that. The first bit is my prediction.
Sorry about the typos. Rushed the above post.
Get the sense the bottom has really fallen out for the moderate liberals facing Teal challenges. Curtin, Higgins, mackellar, wentworth, north Sydney all seem like goners. Even kooyong looks shakey.
Too close to call.
As an outsider looking in, it looks like a narrow / BoP win for Labor, but I never underestimate the unthinking characteristic of the Australian public and it could be the same result for the Coalition.
I don’t say that as a put down that a certain percentage of the possible Coalition voters are unthinking, but after reading the book Thinking Fast and Slow, I realise that Morrison is a master of targeting the disengaged voter and he aims directly at our primal S1 Fast Thinking subconsciousness impulsive brain. Say the same message over and over and over again and soon enough it becomes ingrained into your subconscious brain that you believe it to be true, even though there may be no actual evidence to back it up. “There’s a hole in your bucket”.
My dream is for a Teal balance of power lower house and I don’t particularly care which of the two major parties they support, but I think they would be wiser for them to go with the coalition.
I have Labor anywhere from 71 to 78 seats depending on the swing. The Coalition anywhere from 63 to 71. So really the Coalition’s best night is Labor’s worst. If it’s a bad night for Labor (relative to polls and expectations) and they get as low as 71 seats, I’m giving gains to the Coalition in Corangamite and Parramatta. I’m also then taking out of few seats that independent’s are expected to win in. I’m only giving Independents Goldstein and Wentworth. Then it really comes down to independent’s and minor parties on the crossbench. That crossbench make up would make things interesting, and I think only a brave person would call it from there. Each would need five. Labor could rely on Adam Bandt and Andrew Wilkie as locks, and could maybe sway the likes of Helen Hains and Zali Steggall. But at this point, I’d rather be the Coalition who could rely on some traditionally Liberal held seat representatives to offer their support, with perhaps the guarantee of an integrity commission and stronger 2030 targets. But that’s a whole different question. Can they get that over the line with the Nationals? Thinking strategically, would the Coalition take the opportunity to ditch Morrison, leave Labor with the task of wrangling minority government for three years and then aim for 2025? Who knows at this point. I’m ready for it to be over.
As has already happened in the UK, the ALP & the conservatives are flipping demographics, so I expect the trend to continue here with the coalition picking up more and more of the working class suburbs, whilst former liberal strongholds will go to independents, greens & the ALP. My daughter lives in a London electorate equivalent to Warringah and it’s been solidly Labour for some time.
Personally, I’m hoping for a hung parliament with enough centrist independents to “keep the bastards honest” and to enforce a toothy federal ICAC and serious action on climate change. But I’m cynical and old enough that I’ll be unsurprised if the coalition falls over the line to win by a seat or two.
If it’s even slightly better than 71 for Labor, their chances improve, with the argument of a mandate from the people. This goes all the way to a great night for Labor where they can form majority Government with between 76-78 seats. If that happens, look for key seats to fall like Bennelong, North Sydney, Hasluck, Leichhardt and Longman.
the 1 thing i do see is the new seat of hawke actually turn to a NON-teal independent named jarrod james bingham who has spooked sam rae (lab) and needing to pull a lot of known local faces to help him
@neil flanagan>> being the teals are looking to remove the coalition i can not see them working with them and considering the teals have more in common with labor and greens they would most likely pref to work with them so if it was LNP had 71 and labor/greens 70 i would be sure that the indi would go across to the 70 just to remove the LNP if they were holding the power
@neil flanagan being the teals are looking to remove the coalition i can not see them working with them and considering the teals have more in common with labor and greens they would most likely pref to work with them so if it was LNP had 71 and labor/greens 70 i would be sure that the indi would go across to the 70 just to remove the LNP if they were holding the power
I have the sense that whoever loses this election will go with a whimper and not a bang. IMO I think we may expect there to be a greater sum of seats changing parties this year, but from who and to who is anyone’s guess. I imagine we will be having more discussions about the Lynton Crosby-esque reorientation of ‘red-wall’ style seats.
One thing for sure is that if Labor loses 51-49 there will be mass hysteria that Labor has lost its soul, and that Liberals on 51 is a resounding victory of a ‘triumphant’ and ‘untouchable’ PM.
Raymond, I would disagree with you on two points.
Firstly your assumption is that “the teals are looking to remove the coalition”. It is just my opinion, so it is no better or worse than your, but I think the Teals just seen the seats they are targeting as the lowest hanging fruit. They sense that many progressive voters (of the liberal and labor variety) want to see action on climate change and they calculate that their chances are much better in wealthy middle class seats where such luxuries of voting on climate change issues are possible, compared to other suburban seats where just getting by is the main concern. Because the Liberals have been so reticent to forcefully address this climate change issue – it makes such seats stand out as the “best” seats to target to maximise their vote / opportunity.
Similarly, I don’t think these Teal candidates are in it for 1 election cycle. They will want to get a second term and if they go all in with Labor this time, I can’t see them getting a second term. I have no doubt that the vast majority of these Teal candidates are all what I would describe as moderate Liberals and thus I think they would naturally feel more comfortable with a Coalition Government, but with the proviso that their core demands are acted upon. That will cause tension within the current Coalition Parliamentary grouping, but it depends on how strongly they wish to maintain power.
I personally believe that it will be a good election to lose. Whoever wins will face a lot of challenges and difficulties.
The goal of the teal independents seems to be to force the Coalition to be more proactive on establishing ICAC and dealing with climate change so I can see them giving confidence to the Coalition in exchange for more climate action policies and a stronger ICAC and maybe a moderate leader. It’s unlikely that they would support a Labor government since Labor already have those policies so they would look like de facto Labor members unless they manage to bargain for something like even more tax cuts.
My prediction:
Labor gains – Bass, Braddon, Chisholm, Boothby, Swan, Pearce, Longman.
Either Labor OR Greens gains – Brisbane, Higgins.
Independent gains – Wentworth, Goldstein, maybe Kooyong (50/50).
Liberals to hold North Sydney, Mackellar, Ryan, Leichhardt, Robertson, Deakin, Case, Latrobe, etc but make no gains.
That puts Labor on between 7-9 gains, Greens between 0-2 gains, independents between 2-3 gains; which amounts to between 9-12 losses for the Coalition.
Labor: 76-78 seats
Greens: 1-3 seats (Labor + Greens to total 79 in one of these combinations)
Coalition: 64-67 seats
Others: 8-9 seats
Either way, a slim Labor majority.
I seriously can see the Greens winning Griffith. Labor tried to go negative to sandbag South Brisbane last time and it was completely ineffective.
The made-up IBAC investigation combined with the misleading rhetoric that a Greens MP would theoretically back a Coalition government over Labor in a hung parliament is coming over as pathetic.
Combined with the fact Terri Butler is blocking anyone on Twitter who tries to tell her she’s literally lying (myself included) I would be worried about my chances if I were her.
I also think the Libs will hold onto Chisholm and Bass, because Labor’s campaigns against MPs in mostly lineball contests have completely tanked.
My Predictions:
Labor: 77 Seats
(Gains- Boothby, Reid, Robertson, Chisholm, Dickson, Flynn, Bass, Braddon, Pearce, Swan, Hasluck)
Coalition: 62 Seats
(Gains- Hunter, Shortland??)
Independents: 6 Seats
(Gains- Wentworth, Goldstein, Kooyong)
Greens: 4 Seats
(Gains- Higgins, Brisbane, Griffith)
KAP: 1 Seat
CA: 1 Seat
I’ll just add that I hope my prediction – which is pretty conservative – is a bare minimum; I’m hoping Labor actually do a lot better and also pick up seats like Latrobe, Hasluck, Flynn etc.
I would also love to see the Greens win Griffith.
I would also like to see the national UAP vote below 2%. 🙂
Labor gains: Bass, Boothby, Swan, Reid, Chisholm, Braddon (?), Longman, Higgins (?), Leichhardt (?), Robertson, and pretty much all the rest down the pendulum up to Bennelong are a possibility IMO, excepting Kooyong and probably Monash. Eye on Page to swing wildly.
Ind gains (assuming all crossbench except maybe Mayo to retain): Goldstein, Kooyong (close game here though), Curtin, Wentworth, Mackellar (maybe), not North Sydney.
Greens will not gain any seats, I don’t think the number of Labor moving to greens will outnumber the number of liberals moving to Labor in places like Ryan and Brisbane.
I’ve had the number 83 in my head for some time for Labor (this is where my analysis passes over into clairevoyance), I think this is where it will end up. Libs to fully strip themselves of the moderate baggage that pained them during the last sitting days of this parliament, entrenching teals for some time, to attempt to make inroads in the suburbs in 2025.
This election will be a reverse 1996, people have been refusing to write off Morrison because he won ‘the unlosable election’, as they did for Keating. We all know how that ended. Dutton seems the obvious replacement, but as was noted here a few months ago, I do not think Dutton will be the LOTO that leads the Liberals back into government. The “I can change” line, I thought, was very funny, since the Liberals chucked out their leader before the last 2 elections, Morrison is trying to replicate that “let’s give this new bloke a go” narrative by replacing himself with…himself.
Labor Majority.
I think the Teals would have been natural supporters of the Liberals in a hung parliament but the invective flung their way during this campaign will make it a difficult proposition now. I also cannot see the Teals working with Barnaby on any issue. Thos puts them in a difficult position.
My prediction:
Definite Labor gains: Boothby, Reid, Swan, Pearce
Tossup but leaning towards Labor: Bass, Bennelong, Chisholm, Hasluck, Longman, Brisbane, Casey
Tossup but leaning towards Coalition: Braddon, Banks, Kooyong, Higgins, Dickson, North Sydney, La Trobe, Lindsay, Robertson, Flynn, Tangney, Curtin, Ryan
Definite Coalition gain: None
Definite Independent Gains: Goldstein, Wentworth
Labor is leading in the polls and unlike in 2019, the Coalition winning the TPP is outside of the margin of error. Albanese also isn’t as unpopular as Shorten and Morrison’s popularity has sunk compared to 2019. However, it seems that the undecided voters are breaking strongly towards the Coalition so it could very well be a close contest. For the Coalition to win, it must limit its losses to the 4 seats I’ve mentioned as definite Labor gains as well as pick up a few seats like Paramatta/Gilmore/Eden-Monaro/Macquarie/Dobell though I think all 5 of them will be retained by Labor and get the backing of the Teal Indepdents, Sharkie and Katter. Not impossible for the Coalition to pull off another miracle win but Labor is much more likely to win.
One thing I’ve noted is that even in polls where Labor is looking great on a 2PP basis, their primary is still pretty low, struggling to get above mid 30s. They’re really depending heavily on the independents and Greens knocking over the Liberals in their own safer seats.
I was expecting the high independent/third party vote to decline as voters ‘broke’ to one or other of the major parties, but this doesn’t seem to be the case in the last polls. Both Coalition and Labor are hovering around 35% each, with the rest scattered among a wide range of parties. So unless we see a late break, it’s hard to find a clear decisive win for either side.
I’ll predict a hung parliament with Labor only a seat or two short, with them picking up the low hanging fruit but not much else. Coalition to lose a few more seats to independents or Greens…maybe gain 1-2 from Labor.
I have no evidence for this, but my gut feel that in a hung parliament scenario, the Liberals may not fight too hard to stay in office. A post-covid economic downturn plus dealing with a large and messy crossbench (especially if said crossbench was trying to drag them Left) might see them stand aside. I think Labor, having been out of office for a decade and leading for most of the last 12 months, will be much more eager to form government and be seen to “win”.
Labor majority, high-70s/low-80s. Gun to my head I’d say 79. All the teals flop — Rob Priestly runs it close in Nicholls but he can’t get enough leakage from Libs, he’ll be the closest non-incumbent indie.
I really doubt the Coalition will win — I think they’ll need a majority or something very close to it and I can’t see that happening. All the suggestions of winning back McEwen and Corangamite seem delusional to me, so I think that Liberal HQ is really just arranging deckchairs on the Titanic.
I’ve seen a lot of talk about a hung Parliament but the Libs would probably lose in that scenario (imagine Scott Morrison negotiating with crossbenchers, it’d be a shitshow) and honestly I think an emphatic Labor majority (90+) is considerably more likely than some sort of teal crossbench.
Labor gain – Bass, Brisbane, Boothby, Chisholm, Pearce, Reid, Swan
Greens or Labor gain – Higgins
Ind gain – Goldstein, Wentworth, and I’m going to be brave and predict Frydenberg loses his seat
Lineball – Bennelong, Longman, Ryan (possible Greens gain), North Sydney and Mackellar
Since I really only care about the Greens nowadays I’ll make some predictions about them specifically: they’ll get a bump in their vote in just about every jurisdiction with the possible exception of the NT. Queensland will have either the highest or second highest Greens vote out of the six states. The media will be amazed with this information and there will be lots of tedious commentary about how the ‘conservative Queensland’ stereotype is now just suddenly inaccurate. They’ll win between 5 and 6 senators and control the balance in the Senate.
If Kooyong holds then the leadership contest between Dutton and Frydenberg could go either way. It could be that Frydenberg’s votes evaporate after the election. If Dutton wins the Liberal Party will be fully committed to the path of authoritarian nationalism and pandering to right-wing culture war hysteria, and trans people will be the very first but certainly not the last target on their radar.
Labor will meekly triangulate on most of this, if not actively collaborate. Albo will lead a very mediocre government that will spend more time trying to prove to News Corp that they can stand up to the mean old Greens bullies and defiantly do nothing worthwhile, and you’ll see them join hands with the LNP to pass lots of very awful legislation just to prove that they can. Labor have every chance of facing a wipeout in 2025.
We are such a scary conservative group. It will be a very comfortable majority win to Labor with lots of Independents. Many more than the two at present The other cross bench members are party related. Honestly expect about 58/151 for the coalition without them picking up one additional seat anywhere. The Redistribution was kind to Labor abolishing a Liberal seat in WA as well as giving Victoria an additional Labor seat. Start celebrating.
@Neil Flanagan Good analysis. Just wanted to add to your comment about teals. They are actually not just running in the “lowest hanging fruit” seats – but that of course is where we are hearing about them, because yes, they have the best chances due to the demographics you describe. But there are similar candidates elsewhere – say, Hughes where Georgia Steele is running against both Craig Kelly and the Liberal candidate. Consider also climate-friendly Independents in Hume (Penny Ackery vs Angus Taylor) or my own seat of Grayndler (Sarina Kilham vs Anthony Albanese). Finally, if were have a BoP issue, while I would prefer the teals to back Labor, I understand they may follow their conservative constituencies. (Remember Tony Windsor got punished later for backing Julia Gillard – in spite of it being one of the highlights of Australian government!) The teals may not all do the same thing …
I’m really excited to watch the returns come in on Election Night. Anything could happen but I’d be surprised to see the Coalition returned to power. I’m going to lower my expectations past what some pollsters may say so as to not get my hopes up, so predicting a more modest Labor victory. Currently thinking:
Labor Gains: Swan, Boothby, Reid, Pearce, Chisholm, Casey, Hasluck, Robertson, Bennelong, and Brisbane (+10)
LNP Gains: Hunter (+1)
Greens Gains: Higgins (+1)
Independent Gains: Wentworth, Goldstein (+2)
Some of these are close 50/50 calls. For independents, Kooyong is likely 50/50 but I lean towards Frydenberg retaining, and Curtin, North Sydney, and Mackellar should also be close. For the Greens, I believe they have a decent chance in Brisbane, and in Ryan it depends on if the LNP can be surpassed on 2PP. Richmond, Griffith, and Macnamara are outside chances. For traditional ALP-LIB contests, I have the ALP losing Hunter because it just makes sense that they’d lose one somewhere and that’s where I think it’ll be. Parramatta, Corangamite, and Eden-Monaro should also be close. For possible ALP gains that I lean to the Libs retaining, I think Bass, Braddon, Tangney, Sturt, Deakin, La Trobe, Flinders, Page, Lindsay, Leichhardt, Longman, and Ryan are close but will ultimately go LNP. Excited to hear what others might think and to see how these predictions hold up on election night!
ALP insiders tell me that they have pulled resources out of QLD as they are not making gains there.
I live in Queensland and I can tell you that Labor is not doing well here. No gains in Queensland (forget about Longman Leichhardt, Brisbane, Dickson etc).
ALP has no chance in Robertson, Hasluck, Bennelong and North Sydney.
My prediction is ALP minority government with 74 (gaining Reid, Chisholm, Swan, Bass, Braddon). Coalition will win Indi, Hughes and Dawson back off independents/UAP. They will lose Goldstein to the teal but the others are safe – Coalition get to 71 seats. Cannot see ALP forming government with 73 seats or less.
Boothby has never fallen to the ALP and will not do so this time. Pearce has likewise never fallen to the ALP and will not do this time (redistribution noted). Libs will get frights in Wentworth, Kooyong and Higgins but that protest vote will not translate into losses.
All of this depends on Labor hanging on to Blair, Gilmore, Hunter, and Corangamite, which are in danger of Coalition gains and are also rural/semi-rural, where the Coalition are making gains at the expense of inner city seats. Fowler is also on the watch as the ALP have fielded a poor candidate there. If any one of these seats fall, then I cannot see ALP forming government.
@Neil Flanagan Good analysis. Just wanted to add to your comment about teals. They are actually not just running in the “lowest hanging fruit” seats – but that of course is where we are hearing about them, because yes, they have the best chances due to the demographics you describe. But there are similar candidates elsewhere – say, Hughes where Georgia Steele is running against both Craig Kelly and the Liberal candidate. Consider also climate-friendly Independents in Hume (Penny Ackery vs Angus Taylor) or my own seat of Grayndler (Sarina Kilham vs Anthony Albanese). Finally, if were have a BoP issue, while I would prefer the teals to back Labor, I understand they may follow their conservative constituencies. (Remember Tony Windsor got punished later for backing Julia Gillard – in spite of it being one of the highlights of Australian government!) The teals may not all do the same thing ..
This might sound like a bit of a weird thing to say, but I don’t think Labor will lose the Hunter for the sole reason that Daniel Repacholi is very tall and I feel like people have some sort of primal respect for that. If we were hunter-gatherers, he would lead the tribe based on strength alone, and I feel like that’s exactly the kind of guy Labor needs to win back Hunter. This is not a very rational thought, but it’s my gut thinking on Hunter. Labor will win because their candidate’s two metres tall.
Last time in 2022 I went against the grain and predicted the Coalition would win (although did not predict Labor would actually go backwards and lose net seats). Most in this thread seem optimistic Labor will prevail. I do not share their enthusiasm.
Labor gains:
– Swan
– Boothby
Independent gains:
– Goldstein
Coin toss:
– Wentworth (Ind/Lib)
– Kooyong (Ind/Lib)
– North Sydney (Ind/Lib)
– Reid (Lib/ALP)
– Bass (Lib/ALP)
– Chisholm (Lib/ALP)
– Gilmore (Lib/ALP)
– Parramatta (Lib/ALP) (well done Labor HQ for making this otherwise safe Labor seat ultra marginal!!!)
– Robertson (Lib/ALP)
– Leichhardt (LNP/ALP)
– Pearce (Lib/ALP)
– Bennelong (Lib/ALP)
Going to split the “Coin toss” category ~ 2/3 in favour of the incumbent.
End tally:
Labor +5 (74)
Liberal -7 (69)
Independents / minor parties (+2) (8)
Outcome: HUNG PARLIAMENT!
Ben, thanks as always for a great site, and good luck calling the day for Teh Grauniad tomorrow.
I’m looking forward to a lot of election night thrills and spills, cheers, tears, rah-rahs and raspberries…then after a week+ of recounting and horse-trading, ending up with much less change than all the transient flurrying announced. Say, something like LNP 73 (with Katter and Sharkie), ALP 74 (with Bandt and Wilkie)…and so Haines, Steggal, and (I reckon) Daniel and Spender calling the Treasury. And I can’t see any other outcome except…well, them backing the LNP back into minority government. My most likely (ultimately minimalist) swap scenario something like…:
LNP to ALP: Brisbane, Reid, Braddon, Boothby, Chisolm and Swan
LNP to Indy: Wentworth, Goldstein
ALP to LNP: Eden-Monaro, Gilmour…one of Lyons, Corangamite, Macquarie…(more/all, at a stretch)
As others point out lots of other seats (which I don’t know well) in play on a singular basis, so that kind of end result could easily come via a dozen different combinations. The ‘best’ I can see for the LNP would be say 75 (73+2). While if all the cards fall right their way – as I personally hope – the ALP could grab up to 80-82. But, on balance, I just doubt there’s quite enough mood/reason for change afoot to push either way (or any farther swung pendulum). Not across multiple different electorates. Not behind what I think’s been the relative ‘distraction’ of the Teals mixing it up, along with what’s been – again, FWIW, just what I think – an overcooked take on the supposed ‘anti-ScoMo sentiment’ in play. It’s not that the latter isn’t real, and broad enough to have registered solidly in gender-based polling. But it’s also fairly localised in ‘narrative’ origin (ie articulated by/from the media/political classes), and (outright hatred aside) there’s a lot of difference between not liking a leader much – or (importantly) agreeing to such a proposition when asked/push-polled – and actually not voting for them on that basis alone. In the booth it finally stops being a ‘thought experiment’ for the undecided (high % this year, this late) and the politically unengaged (always much, much higher % than the political classes ever want to admit). In this context, the realities of a rapidly deteriorating economy in prospect, and the absence of any truly compelling/exciting ALP alternative reason to change…will I suspect favour the incumbent, much more than any ‘preferred PM’ poll suggests. That, and the national electorate’s innate conservatism, will I think decisively tip the balance against change in seats as varied as Bennelong, Higgins, Kooyong, Robertson, Pierce, Sturt…and most of the Queensland ones in play. As Penny Wong said as the devastating 2019 result rolled in…it’s just really, really hard being a progressive party of governance in Oz.
BTW, by way of declaration I’m voting for the ALP in both houses, so I won’t be thrilled if my own predicted outcome obtains. It just feels at this point the ‘most likely’. Will be chuffed to be wrong. Finally…while Ben’s allowed us to bung on our Nostradamus specs…I also predict that part of the Teal’s LNP ‘supply deal’ will be Morrison gone by Xmas, for Frydenberg. Getting even more elaborately Gothic – yes, and silly – I can then further see the Dutton Camp (further emboldened by Qld’s sand-bagging efforts, yet again!) attempting to welsh on such a deal, if necessary by blowing up its own fragile government. Say around Nov, and into Christmas, with factional nonsense and pork-bribery a-plenty in those lost Teal/Indy ‘soft-Lib’ seats, maybe even jobs dangled to a Wilkie or Sharkie, to get some by-election actions happening. So I’ll call it here first, Ben: there’ll be another Fed election, for the first half of next year! Just getting silly. But you know, the Teals push has been a bit like puppies chasing cars, in a way: the key question, as always, is…what are they going to do with it if they DO catch it? As another example…what do the Teals do if – in a ‘careful what you wish for’ scenario – Wright does knock off Josh, as well? So then your Teal BoP has to decide whether to hand their electorates’ wealthy voters an Albo government – likely to go after their property, share, tax and Super breaks at ‘some’ point – or an LNP one, under…at some inevitable point…Dutton! In a tanking economy and a foreign policy brave new wonderland…
Any way you look at it, a super interesting election, and very interesting times beyond, whoever prevails. so good luck all candidates, and thanks again for all your great work, Ben.
1) Greens/left voters are perhaps more engaged in the political process than others. Those who love them have already decided to vote for Greens will indicate in polling but those who make up their mind on the day will be more likely to go for parties like UAP and ONE. This will distort the distribution of undecided by pollsters. Instead of undecided going 50/50, it will be more like 66/33 for the right. With 6% undecided, instead of 52/48TPP the result will be 50/50.
2) Melbourne will be a scare for Bandt. Without the Adani issue, Green votes will fall. Labor will finish ahead of the Liberals meaning the contest will be Green/Labor instead of Green Liberal. There will be a strong preference flow from Liberals and minor parties to Labor.
3) None of the new Teals will get up.
4) The demographics in the north of Greenway with new suburbs will result in it going Liberal.
5) Zali will win but it will be tight.
6) Keneally will win only just scrape in.
7) Labor minority.
Just reading everyone’s prediction. I think Neil Flanagan is on the money. Yes Morrison is smug and obnoxious. But he (somehow) does just enough to cut through to the disenchanted and disengaged voter. Too many in this chatroom have “tunnel vision” and don’t understand how effective Morrison can be on the subliminal level with the average voter.
Labor seized government from the Coalition only three times in past ~ 50 years. On each occasion they were led by a very charismatic leader, in Gough Whitlam, Bob Hawke and Kevin Rudd. I personally like Albanese. But he is so cautious and weary about not repeating the mistakes of Bill Shorten and 2019, that he has forgotten to craft out his own flair or vision.
Labor: 73-76
Coalition: 68-71
Greens: 1-2
CA: 1
KAP: 1
Current Independents: 3 (Haines, Steggall, Wilkie)
New “Teals”: 1-2
Very close election. I still expect a hung parliament or slim Labor majority.
Teals most likely will win one or two of the following: Goldstein, Wentworth, Hughes.
The Greens’ best chance will be Brisbane or Ryan.
Labor may be under threat in Fowler, Parramatta, Lingiari (seats with retiring MPs) and possibly in Eden-Monaro and Corangamite. I just had a look on Sportsbet. They don’t seem to suggest that Labor will lose seats to the Coalition.
Here it goes – reserve the right to change later if Newspoll tells us something…
LIB Loss / ALP gain: Reid, Robertson, Brisbane, Bass, Boothby, Swan, Pearce.
LIB Loss / TEAL gain: Goldstein
ALP Loss / Lib gain: Lingiari
ALP Loss: Hunter … maybeeee …
Right to the wire: Chisholm, Higgins, Kooyong, Wentworth, North Sydney, Longman – could go either way.
Libs to “hold” Hughes
Surprise packets – and I might be way wrong here: Richmond, Page, Hinkler, Canberra, Sturt, Lyons (only if Libs hold Bass – unlikely but possible), Moore.
ALP to hold Fowler – say 52%
Libs to hold by <1% or skin of their teeth – Bennelong, Banks, Casey, Monash, Ryan, Leichhardt, Herbert, Flinders, Hasluck
Can't see a Lib government at all and from that hard to see a comfortable ALP majority either unless they hold everything. They need to win a few roughies for a decent majority.
Feel that Swan, Boothby and Pearce most likely gains for ALP and that a Hung Parliament is very possible. i wonder if the Greens have a better change at Brisbane than Labor.
I am wondering at what number of Liberal seats won – if Labor do not have a majority – Scomo would consider staying on as LOTO. Especially if Frydenburg loses and some can’t stomach Dutton.
If Labor wins in minority, I would consider it a good result for Scott Morrison and he would most likely refuse to give up the Liberal leadership even if the hard right faction threaten a civil war. Of course if Labor wins in majority and Frydenberg loses, that’s a different story. A Dutton led Liberal Party would be great for Labor since the Liberal Party would become basically another One Nation and be unelectable in much of Melbourne and Sydney which may be why they are barely putting in any effort into Dickson even though it should be winnable.
@ angellanguage. Thanks for that compliment.
I agree that the teals may not all do the same thing. Much like all the other major parties, all we have heard from the different Teals thus far is high level statements that can mean anything or nothing to the person receiving the message – that is the way political messages are crafted these days. We will only really know what may shake out if they do get into a balance of power situation and then have to negotiate the hard nitty gritty details. However, I still think this is a “risk” (if you can call it that) worth taking. We have experienced the other way for a long period of time and an objective assessment would say that it is not working as well as it should. So for me the risk is minimal, if it all goes pear shape, we can revert back to type in 3 years time. It is not as though the last 3 years have been a period of radical reform, so at worst all we will have is the status quo.
I do wish that someone could have recruited Brittney Higgins to run as a Teal candidate in Cook (Morrison’s electorate). Now that would have been fun to watch and see the results.
My prediction is it A LP will be government but it will be very close and I hope that they will have a hard time negotiating with a hostile Senate. However the Senate must realise that the government that is elected is the government and not be too dogmatic. If Australian Labor Party Have announced the policy then Senators should allow the policy to be in the Implemented.
Without shadow of a doubt this election has left me with the worst choice I’ve ever had to make. Apart from the two majors I was offered two Extreme left wing groups or or three extreme right wing groups. Therefore no acceptable minors two unacceptable majors and 5 unacceptable majors.
Another roughy – for the ACT Senate – David Pocock plus Zed Seselja for the Libs. Pocock will be senator #1 and Zed will pick up enough preferences on the way to just squeeze into the second seat ahead of Katie Gallagher.
I actually think if Dutton became Liberal leader after the election it may not be good for Labor he will be obstructionist and not seek bipartisanship on matters such as climate change. Similar, to Tony Abbott after 2010. He will focus on being a wrecking ball. In hindsight if Peter Costello became Liberal leader after the 2007 he may have been able to work with the Labor Government to implement an ETS, take his party with him and the chaos between 2010-2013 could have been avoided and he may have provided competition to Labor early on as opposed to late in the term like Tony Abbott did in early 2010 causing Labor to panic and knife a sitting PM.
Thumping ALP majority on the cards.
No Lib gains
Definite: +11
TAS – Bass and Braddon
SA – Boothby
VIC – Chisholm
QLD – Brisbane and Longman
WA – Pearce and Swan
NSW – Reid, Robertson, Bennelong
Possible:
Leichhardt, Ryan, Higgins, Sturt, North Sydney ( yes, north Sydney)
Teal Gains
Wentworth, Mackellar, curtin, Goldstein
Final seat count, ALP to start with an 8, LNP to start with a 5.
The most interesting seat is North Sydney, whoever comes second is likely to cause an upset and win. Some think Tink, some reckon Renshaw for sure.
Labor internal polling is apparently 53/47, LNP polling is same, they know they’re shot. Late undecided female vote to break heavily towards Labor is the call by both camps. Rhetoric changing in MSM, no more calls of close contest and other BS.
Newspoll is inconsequential. Perrotet apparently wants Albo to win, word is hope they break their baseball bats on Scomo so more forgiving in March 23.
Hung parliament with Liberals forming majority
ALP to form majority government with some seats to spare. Not a landslide by any means, but comfortable.
Crossbench to increase by a net three or four or so, including some teal.
As for the senate:
NSW 3COAL, 2ALP, 1GRN (next most likely would be third COAL instead losing to ON)
VIC 3COAL, 2ALP, 1GRN (next most likely would be third COAL instead losing to ALP3 or a right-wing minor party, possibly ON)
QLD 2LNP, 2ALP, 1GRN, 1ON (this will be more straightforward than some may imagine)
WA 3LIB, 2ALP, 1GRN (next most likely would be third LIB instead losing to either ON, or, if it’s a particularly good night for them, ALP3)
SA 2LIB, 2ALP, 1GRN, 1MrX (MrX primary vote to be less than a quota, next most likely is him losing to either ALP3 or LIB3)
TAS 2LIB, 2ALP, 1GRN, 1JLN (next most likely would be JLN losing to either ALP3 or LIB3)
ACT LIB1 ALP1 (Or Pocock could take the seat from either major. Who knows, uncharted territories)
NT CLP1 ALP1
17COAL (13-19)
14ALP (13-18)
6GRN (6)
1ON (1-4)
1MrX (0-1)
1JLN (0-1)
0Pocock (0-1)
ShouldhavestuckwithGGG, interesting point about Perrotet.
I definitely think the outcome of this election will also impact the results of Victoria 2022 and NSW 2023:
NSW 2023 – If Albo is PM, Perrotet wins; If ScoMo is still PM, Labor wins.
VIC 2022 – Andrews wins either way, but if Albo is PM it’s a reduced majority and the Liberals have a chance to build a two-election plan for 2026; if ScoMo is still PM, it’s another Labor landslide (possibly more than 2018) and the Libs have no shot until 2030.
Hey Hans JLN will be two in Senate. Jacqui Lambie herself plus Tammy Tyrell this time ( exit Eric Abetz ). so two JLN from Tassie guaranteed.
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