The seats to watch in the SA election


In the lead up to Saturday’s election, I thought I would run through seats worth watching.

If you look at the pendulum, there are a handful of seats with slim margins.

The Liberal Party holds four seats by a slim margin. The Liberal margins in King, Adelaide and Elder are between 0.7% and 2.1%. The seat of Newland is held by a Liberal MP, but my redistribution calculations flipped the seat to a 0.3% margin for Labor.

Labor holds Mawson by a 0.7% margin, and Wright by 3.1%.

There are also a number of seats contested by independent MPs.

Newland, mentioned above as a very marginal Liberal vs Labor seat, is being contested by independent MP Frances Bedford, whose seat of Florey has been redrawn into a new area.

Independent MP Geoff Brock has jumped from his seat of Frome to the neighbouring Liberal seat of Stuart, following a majority of Frome voters in the Port Pirie area who vote strongly for Brock, so much that I’ve defined Stuart as a notional independent seat.

I’m sure there will be other seats that pop up on Saturday night but I think most interest will be in these races.

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  1. If the 56/44 opinion poll is correct.. then some lib seats with margins up to 10% could be 3 notionally safe liberal seats all with current independent mps have an excellent chance of re-electing those same. Mps.

  2. Thanks Ben for all the posts about the election. Looking forward to watching coverage tomorrow night! I agree those 6 marginal and 2 MP vs MP contests will be interesting to watch.

    I also have on my list Kavel (to see how Cregan goes, but feel like he’ll hang on), Finniss and Heysen. The latter two purely because they were so close on the 2CP for SA-Best last time and to see where the vote goes.
    Heysen has had SA-Best, Greens and Democrats over time come second in the 2CP. Although the Lib vote is just under 41% would theoretically puts it in the danger zone, but it just depends on Sophomore Surge vs general swing. I put this as a dark horse for the night.
    Finniss more curious to see how the Nationals go as they are contesting all the safe Lib seats, this being the seat with the lowest margin on the pendulum (a still healthy 14%).

    Let’s be honest… I’ll be watching all seats! Bring on tomorrow night (and Monday).


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