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This would probably be the least interesting by-election in the history of democracy.
Bit of a sleeper of a by-election, but big surprises often are.
In Seapray at the moment, and the mood down here (and in the local towns) leads me to the view that the Libs may pick this up on the back of the Green vote which is I’m expecting to be high (the Lib is currently pitching for former ALP voter preferences).
The contest between the two Coalition parties has some interest, but the Liberals have challenged the Nationals down this way several times, and come off second best (e.g. the Gippsland federal by-election).
I’d expect the “country Labor voter” demographic to be more sympathetic to the Nationals than the Liberals.
Nationals win comfortably, almost on primaries.
Liberal vote around 25%, around half of Labor’s vote has gone to the Greens.
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