- Liberal – 29
- Labor – 18
- National – 6
- Undecided seats – Belmont, Collie-Preston, Eyre, Kimberley, Midland, Warren-Blackwood
9:57pm – Looking back at the Legislative Council – the Greens are one vote behind the Liberals in North Metro. In South Metro it looks like the final seat is Labor easily beating the Greens – but the two parties end up on 1.87 quotas, and the Liberals vote is overinflated.
9:50pm – Looking at the seat of Kimberley – the Greens are currently on an incredible 26.5% – and the three booths yet to come in were not particularly good or bad ones in 2008. It seems possible that the Greens will be in the top two when this race is over.
9:41pm – A number of right-wing minor candidates are in with a chance. Shooters and Fishers could win two seats – beating Labor in Mining and Pastoral and beating a Liberal in Agricultural. Family First could beat a National in South West, on Greens preferences.
9:34pm – The numbers in South Metro currently have the Liberals winning 4 seats, with 60% of the vote. But the Liberals currently have only 47% in the lower house in those seats, so those numbers are far too high.
9:28pm – Antony Green has mentioned that Eyre and Warren-Blackwood are back in the race – both Lib/Nat marginals, one from each party.
9:21pm – It looks like Labor might be pulling away in Albany. By the way, the three seats in play are all regional seats. If Labor wins none of them, they will have no seats outside Perth (if you don’t count Mandurah).
9:15pm – In South Metro, the current numbers have the left only winning two seats, but overall the ALP has held 8/14 seats in that region, so that seems unlikely.
9:14pm – In contrast, there is a real shot at the Liberals winning four seats in North Metro, which would see the Greens lose a seat. At the moment the calculator has the Australian Christians being excluded, and preferences at that point originally from Family First and the Shooters giving the seat to the Greens.
9:12pm – In East Metro, with 5% of the vote counted – the calculator is giving 3 seats to Liberal, 2 Labor, 1 Greens. Current figures don’t give the Liberals enough for the right to win four seats, and if they don’t, the Greens are well ahead of Labor.
9:10pm – Before tonight, the Liberals only held 8/14 seats in North Metro. Now they hold twelve.
9:06pm – There are 14 Labor seats held by margins of less than 8.5% against the Liberals or Nationals. The ALP has retained 3, lost 7 to the Liberals, lost one to the Nationals, and three are still in play.
9:03pm – There’s not much more to say about the Legislative Assembly. The Liberal Party has won 31 seats, Labor 18, the Nationals 7, with three up for grabs. Those three seats are Kimberley, Collie-Preston and Albany.
8:54pm – We’re starting to get Legislative Council figures in. They are very early, but the Greens’ best shot appears to be in South Metro. In North Metro the Greens seat may be lost to the Liberals.
8:42pm – Starting to look at Legislative Council. So far we have no numbers outside of Agricultural. Since the count is at different stages, I’m averaging swings rather than trying to add together totals. In East Metro, the swing against the Greens at the moment is 5.25%.
8:22pm – Consensus seems to be emerging that Labor holds 18, with a chance in Albany, Collie-Preston and Kimberley.
8:11pm – The Legislative Council vote is most advanced in Agricultural, at 1.4%. At the moment the vote suggests the Libs will hold their two, Labor will hold their one, Nationals will hold two of their three. Last seat a race between former Nationals leader Max Trenorden (running as an independent), the Shooters and Fishers, and the third Liberal.
8:04pm – Seats to watch: Albany, Forrestfield, Morley, Collie-Preston, Belmont, Kimberley.
7:54pm – While Labor has definitely lost a swag of seats – they are still in with a chance in super-marginal Forrestfield and Morley.
7:44pm – Labor has held on to their twelve safest seats and Fremantle. The other 15 seats are a mixed bag.
7:41pm – Greens down 3.3% on current figures – too early to lock anything in, but not good for the Greens.
7:40pm – Forrestfield is Labor’s most marginal seat in Perth. At the moment the ABC has the Liberals only gaining a 0.8% swing.
7:37pm – Labor is set to hold on to Kwinana – theoretically a very marginal seat against an independent. Independent candidate Carol Adams will struggle to stay ahead of the Liberals.
7:33pm – I’m focusing on the 15 Labor seats on margins of 8.3% or less. So far the Liberals are winning five of these seats and the Nationals are winning two. Labor is winning two, two are too close to call and four have very little information.
7:15pm – The Nationals have gained Kimberley, according to the ABC’s website, although the numbers appear to be too early.
7:12pm – Perth also looks likely to fall. If Perth and Midland and all seats on smaller margins fall, Labor will win only 13 seats.
7:08pm – The ABC has projected Liberals gaining Midland, held by 8.3% margin by the Labor Party.
7:06pm – Vince Catania, elected in North West in 2008 as a Labor candidate before joining the Nationals, is leading with 43% of primary vote, but less than the combined ALP and Liberal vote. The ALP is preferencing the Liberals.
7:04pm – Big swing to the Nationals in Liberal-held Geraldton on 4/20 booths – the seat is too close to call.
6:58pm – Can’t rule out the possibility of a Liberal winning in Fremantle at this point.
6:56pm – We have four booths in from Albany, which the ALP’s Peter Watson holds by 0.2% – there’s a swing to the Liberals – but there’s also a chance the Nats will overtake the Liberals.
6:53pm – There’s a swing of over 8% to the Liberal Party in Perth on four booths. A majority of this swing has come from the Greens.
6:50pm – Some early seat results:
- Collie-Preston – With two booths in, the Labor primary vote is holding up, but Libs and Nats gaining ground from minor parties.
- Cannington – The first booth has a 12.6% swing to the Liberal Party on primary votes – which may be enough to knock over the 9% margin.
6:40pm – Antony Green talking about a single booth in Collie, in the district of Collie-Preston. A 5% swing in that booth – which would be enough for Labor to lose Collie-Preston if the swing was extrapolated across the district.
6:36pm – A small number of votes have been counted and it has the Liberal Party up 10%. Far too early to project anything.
6:33pm – The latest Newspoll has the Liberals and Nationals on 59.5% of the two-party preferred vote. This compares to 51.9% in 2008, so we’ll be looking for an average swing of 7.6% to match that poll.
6:10pm – Polls have now closed in Western Australia, and I’ll be covering the results here over the next few hours.