Tasmanian Legislative Council 2018 Archive

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Tasmanian Legislative Council live

10:33 – If you found this liveblog helpful, why not consider chipping in with a regular donation?

9:37 – And finally, here is a similar map for Hobart, showing the primary vote for Valentine and Griggs. Valentine did better in the north of the seat, and Griggs in the south.

9:13 – Here is the map showing the primary votes by booth for the three leading candidates. The Liberal vote is shown by default, but you can toggle.

9:06 – It’s worth noting that Sorell and Brighton were Labor’s best areas at the recent lower house election. Mav’s vote in that area has presumably done serious damage to the Labor vote, but it could suggest that his preferences would favour Labor if he doesn’t make it to the top two.

8:47 – This table shows another perspective on the vote distribution. I split up ordinary election-day votes into the six LGAs. While Mav is currently coming third, he won a plurality of votes in the two most populous LGAs at the southern end of the electorate, and won by quite a bit in Sorell, which is the most populous part of the electorate by some distance.

But Mav came a distant third (or possibly fourth) in the other four council areas, with no area polling more than 13.3%. This explains why Mav’s vote caught up late in the night. He did much better in the bigger, more urban booths.

LGALIB %ALP %Mav %Formal votes
Sorell19.223.027.84867
Brighton28.222.629.52681
Southern Midlands30.619.613.32542
Glamorgan/Spring Bay31.620.811.22061
Tasman18.321.69.6906
Northern Midlands31.028.711.2868
Other votes27.420.817.84380

8:43 – This map shows which of the three leading candidates won each booth. Howlett (Liberal) won most booths in the centre and north of the seat. Labor pretty much only won booths on the Tasman and Fleurieu peninsulas, while Mav won a series of booths closer to Hobart.

8:22 – There isn’t much more to report, but I’m putting together some maps of the Prosser election results.

8:02 – The gap between the top three in Prosser is now only 5.7%, so all three candidates are in with a shot. It appears likely that, in a race between Labor and Liberal, Mav and Mulder’s preferences will both shore up the Liberal lead. But who knows what will happen if Mav can get ahead of Labor. It’s hard to see Labor winning.

7:46 – Steve Mav has been surging in support in the last few booths. He was at 18% a little while ago, and now he’s on 20.2%. This is just behind Labor on 21.7% and the Liberal on 25.6%. He’s well and truly in the contest.

7:37 – Only four ordinary booths are yet to report in Prosser, and the gap between Liberal and Labor has narrowed to just over 6%. But Steve Mav is also narrowing the gap. He’s now polling over 15%.

7:22 – Valentine leads 43.4% to Griggs on 27.6% in Hobart. It looks very likely he’ll win. Kevin Bonham (who is running a model) has projected that he will win.

7:20 – Quite a lot more counting has been finished. In Prosser, 19 out of 27 booths have reported, with Howlett (LIB) on 27.65% and Lambert (ALP) on 20.73%.

7:06 – Six booths have reported in Hobart, with another nine to come. Valentine has fallen back to 44.2%, with Griggs on 26.6%.

7:03 – Fourteen booths have reported in Prosser, with another fourteen to go. The pattern is similar, with Liberal candidate Howlett leading on 29.5%, followed by Labor candidate Lambert on 19.4%, then Mav on 12.3%, then Mulder on 10.1%.

6:53 – We have three booths in Hobart, and incumbent MLC Rob Valentine is leading with 46.1% of the primary vote, followed by independent candidate Richard Griggs on 28.4%. Those numbers look very good for Valentine.

6:46 – With seven booths in, Labor has jumped slightly while the Liberal candidate has dropped. Independent Steve Mav is third on 10.6% – I must have missed him in the first count.

6:41 – We now have five small booths in from Prosser (none from Hobart), for a total of 951 formal votes. There are 13 candidates in Prosser, so we can’t expect a clean result on primary votes. Liberal candidate Jane Howlett leads with 33.4%, followed by Labor candidate Janet Lambert on 20%, former independent MLC Tony Mulder on 8.6% and Shooters candidate Lorraine Bennett on 8.1%.

6:00 – Polls have just closed in two Tasmanian Legislative Council electorates. The Tasmanian upper house faces annual elections, with two or three out of fifteen electorates voting each year. The whole chamber is renewed every six years. This year the inner city seat of Hobart and the new south-eastern seat of Prosser are up for election.

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Tasmanian upper house guides posted

Tasmania’s Legislative Council is elected by a unique voting system, with a small proportion of the fifteen seats up for election every year, with the entire state voting over the course of a six-year cycle.

This voting system tends to favour local independents over the major parties, with Labor currently holding four seats and the Liberal Party one, along with ten independents.

Two seats are up for election in 2018, and I’ve prepared guides for both contests.

This map shows the location of the two seats:

Hobart covers the inner city of Hobart, and was won in 2012 by left-leaning independent Rob Valentine, who is favourite to win in 2018.

Prosser is a new seat created out of parts of four other seats in the south-eastern corner of Tasmania. There is no incumbent MP, with an MP representing an abolished seat elsewhere in the state retiring this year. The seat has some strong Labor areas including Sorell, along with better Liberal areas further north. Prosser could go to either major party, or to a strong independent, and will be the first electoral test for the re-elected majority Liberal government.