Bulimba – QLD 2020

ALP 10.8%

Incumbent MP
Di Farmer, since 2015. Previously Member for Bulimba 2009-2012.

Geography
Eastern Brisbane. Bulimba covers Brisbane suburbs on the southern side of the Brisbane river, including Bulimba, Hawthorne, Balmoral, Morningside, Cannon Hill, Murarrie and parts of Carina and Camp Hill.

History
The seat of Bulimba has existed continuously since 1873. The seat has been held by Labor MPs continuously since the 1930s, except for one term from 2012 to 2015.

Pat Purcell won the seat at the 1992 election. He was appointed as Minister for Public Works, Housing and Racing in 2005. He resigned from the ministry in 2007. He retired at the 2009 election.

Former public servant Di Farmer was elected as the Labor Member for Bulimba at the 2009 state election.

In 2012, Farmer was narrowly defeated by LNP candidate Aaron Dillaway, by a 75-vote margin after a 7.9% swing.

Farmer struck back in 2015, winning back her seat with a 6.3% swing. She was re-elected in 2017 with a further swing of 4.7%.

Candidates

Assessment
Bulimba is a safe Labor seat.

2017 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Di Farmer Labor 15,67848.9+1.1
Fiona Ward Liberal National 11,08034.5-7.3
Felicity Jodell Greens 4,21113.1+2.7
Bernadette Le GoullonIndependent6422.0+2.0
Angus JellIndependent4711.5+1.5
Informal1,1403.4

2017 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Di Farmer Labor 19,49960.8+4.7
Fiona Ward Liberal National 12,58339.2-4.7

Booth breakdown

Booths in Bulimba have been divided into three areas: north-west, south-east and south-west.

Labor won a two-party-preferred majority in all three areas, ranging from 58.3% in the north-west to 65.8% in the south-east.

The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 11% in the north-west to 15.6% in the south-west.

Voter groupGRN primALP 2PPTotal votes% of votes
South-East13.265.87,44923.2
South-West15.662.46,98221.8
North-West11.058.35,18716.2
Pre-poll11.557.15,64217.6
Other votes13.558.76,82221.3

Election results in Bulimba at the 2017 QLD state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Greens primary votes.

7 COMMENTS

  1. @wine interesting! I can’t remember which seat profile there was discussion (think Maiwar) looking at Fed vs State votes, and the good ole’ effect of having different stripes in each.

    Look, Di Farmer has this seat until she retires really considering bar the 2012 tsunami, it’s been in Labor hands for a very long time.

    Prediction (August 2020): ALP Retain

  2. The LNP goal here should be to chip awsay each election do the margin is tight and its a winnable seat once Farmer retires.

  3. If trends continue and Greens gain Griffith, this could be a 3 cornered contest when Di Farmer retires. Until then (and probably even then), nothing to see here.

  4. Bulimba has a pretty high “soft Green” vote; perhaps the best in the state outside of the areas that the Greens already heavily target. (By “soft Green”, I mean they got 23% in the Senate last year on a 4PP basis, so there’s a decent contingent of voters there who sometimes support them.)
    I agree that it will be fairly three cornered when Di Farmer retires. Not this time though – I expect she’ll easily retain it.

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