Council margin – GRN 6.8% vs LNP
Mayoral margin – ALP 3.3%
Incumbent councillor
Jonathan Sri, since 2016.
Geography
Inner south of Brisbane. The Gabba covers the suburbs across the river from the Brisbane city centre, including Dutton Park and West End.
Redistribution
The Gabba shrank significantly, losing its easternmost quarter but otherwise experiencing no boundary changes. East Brisbane and Buranda were moved to Coorparoo. These changes increased the Greens margin from 5% to 6.8%.
History
The Gabba replaced the Dutton Park ward, which covered the inner south and some nearby areas. Dutton Park was traditionally considered to be a safe Labor ward.
Tim Quinn was first elected as a Labor councillor for the Gabba in 1985. He held the ward covering the area right up until 2003.
Quinn served in civic cabinet throughout Jim Soorley’s mayoralty, serving as deputy mayor from 1997. Quinn was appointed as Lord Mayor to finish Soorley’s fourth mayoral term in 2003, and resigned from Dutton Park. Quinn was defeated by Campbell Newman in 2004.
Helen Abrahams was appointed to finish Quinn’s term as Dutton Park councillor in 2003. Abrahams had previously served one term in Paddington from 1991 to 1994.
Abrahams was re-elected in 2004 with a 9.1% margin over the Liberal Party, but the Greens polled 25.1% in their first contest in the area.
Dutton Park was replaced by the Gabba in 2008, and Abrahams scraped by with a 2.7% margin. The Liberal Party outpolled Labor on primary votes, 37.1% to 35.8%, and Labor only won on Greens preferences.
Abrahams was re-elected again in 2012. She increased her primary vote to 45% mostly at the expense of the Greens, and increased her margin to 8%.
Abrahams retired in 2016, and Labor dropped to third place on primary votes. Greens candidate Jonathan Sri came second on primary votes and won the ward on Labor preferences.
Candidates
- Rachel Gallagher (Labor)
- Nathaniel Jones (Liberal National)
- Jonathan Sri (Greens)
Assessment
This was the first ward ever won by the Greens when Sri won in 2016. Past history of Greens wins in lower house seats in other states (the elections which are most similar to a BCC election) suggest that Greens MPs often strengthen their margin after one term, but we don’t know how that will play out here. Sri’s main challenge will be staying ahead of Labor, as it’s likely Labor preferences will be enough to win a second term if he can stay in the top two against the LNP.
Sri may benefit from incumbency and from Labor voters choosing the progressive party with the stronger local presence, but his radicalism (both in substance and style) could either help him or hurt him.
There is also a danger that a swing against the LNP would drop them into third place, which would mean the most conservative part of the ward would be deciding the result between the Greens and Labor. If this happens Sri would need a significant boost in his primary vote relative to Labor to hold on.
2016 council result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Sean Jacobs | Liberal National | 7,712 | 35.9 | -1.1 | 34.5 |
| Jonathan Sri | Greens | 6,823 | 31.7 | +13.9 | 32.8 |
| Nicole Lessio | Labor | 6,457 | 30.0 | -15.1 | 30.3 |
| Leon Lechner | People Decide | 516 | 2.4 | +2.4 | 2.4 |
| Informal | 649 | 2.9 |
2016 council two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Redist |
| Jonathan Sri | Greens | 10,194 | 55.0 | 56.8 |
| Sean Jacobs | Liberal National | 8,336 | 45.0 | 43.2 |
| Exhausted | 2,978 | 13.9 |
2016 mayoral result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Graham Quirk | Liberal National | 8,917 | 41.2 | -6.2 | 39.7 |
| Rod Harding | Labor | 6,598 | 30.5 | +1.4 | 31.0 |
| Ben Pennings | Greens | 5,146 | 23.8 | +2.8 | 24.7 |
| Karel Boele | People Decide | 388 | 1.8 | +1.8 | 1.9 |
| Jeffrey Hodges | Independent | 376 | 1.7 | +1.7 | 1.7 |
| Jim Eldridge | Independent | 130 | 0.6 | +0.6 | 0.5 |
| Jarrod Wirth | Independent | 81 | 0.4 | +0.4 | 0.4 |
| Informal | 557 | 2.5 |
2016 mayoral two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Rod Harding | Labor | 10,084 | 51.7 | +7.8 | 53.3 |
| Graham Quirk | Liberal National | 9,441 | 48.4 | -7.8 | 46.7 |
| Exhausted | 2,111 | 9.8 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in The Gabba have been divided into three areas: north-east, south-east and west. In simplistic terms, the north-east is the best LNP area, the west is the best Greens area, and the south-east is the best Labor area.
The Greens won big victories in the south-east and west, but the LNP won 55.5% of the two-candidate-preferred vote in the north-east.
Labor similarly won big in the south-east and west on the mayoral ballot while the LNP won in the north-east.
The Greens were outpolled by Labor in the south-east (narrowly) and the north-east (less narrowly) but significantly outpolled Labor in the west.
| Voter group | ALP prim council | GRN 2CP council | LNP 2PP mayoral | Total votes | % of votes |
| West | 29.8 | 67.1 | 38.4 | 6,275 | 36.2 |
| North-East | 29.6 | 44.5 | 55.8 | 3,418 | 19.7 |
| South-East | 37.0 | 66.5 | 37.1 | 1,840 | 10.6 |
| Other votes | 28.1 | 47.9 | 54.7 | 3,736 | 21.5 |
| Pre-poll | 31.1 | 51.6 | 50.7 | 2,086 | 12.0 |
Election results in The Gabba at the 2016 Brisbane City Council election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Greens vs LNP) for council, two-party-preferred votes for lord mayor, and council primary votes for Labor.
Sri is safe. His biggest risk would have been compulsory preferential, with LNP preferences potentially giving the seat to Labor in the event of LNP coming 3rd.
In optional preferential, LNP will likely do “just vote 1” cards and if Balmain/Newtown in NSW are any indication, the Greens will actually gain slightly off the few LNP votes that don’t exhaust.
Nate Jones is the LNP Candidate and Rachel Gallagher is running for Labor: https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/the-green-the-urban-planner-or-the-cop-who-will-win-the-gabba-20191216-p53kbm.html
I’m keen to see if the LNP or Labor finishes third in this Ward. My prediction is it’ll be a small swing to the Greens, with Labor again finishing third.
if the LNP finishes third and they preference Labor, then Rachel may win.
While the redistribution here has benefited Sri by cutting off an area of LNP-leaning East Brisbane, it may well hurt him by reducing the LNP’s primary vote. Between this, ongoing demographic change in this area (generally supporting the ALP and Greens), and an expected citywide reduction in the LNP’s vote, this is possibly the ALP’s best chance to retake the seat.
Sri has been a divisive councillor with his supporters loving him and opponents despising him. His biggest threat is if nominal LNP voters decide their priority is removing Sri, leading for them to vote tactically for Labor
Macca-BNE: it’s if Kangaroo Point ever gets chopped off that Labor will be salivating, I think – that dramatically lowers the LNP primary.
My impression of the ward is that it’s the removed parts which were good for Labor – not so much that they were stronger there, but that no other party had an advantage there either, as compared to KP with LNP domination or West End with Greens domination.
Liberal sign for Lord Mayor in Pullenvale had Just Vote 1 on it so thereis a chance that Liberals will exhaust.
Tactically this may be advantageous in Mayoral race and disadvantageous in ward contests.
ALP Lord Mayoral contest not a roaring success. I do not even know name of candidate and all I know about him is that he is an ex TV presenter.
I can name every Queensland Federal MP and a good percentage of State MP’s so my failure to be able to name Lord Mayoral candidate is a definite communications failure. I would estimate hatover 90% of his voter base do not know who he is. Previous candidate Harding was removed for failure to campaign so this bloke is doing worse than Harding.