|Term expires 2014||Term expires 2017|
|Jacinta Collins (ALP)||Kim Carr (ALP)|
|David Feeney (ALP)||Stephen Conroy (ALP)|
|Mitch Fifield (LIB)||Richard Di Natale (GRN)|
|Helen Kroger (LIB)||Bridget McKenzie(NAT)|
|Gavin Marshall (ALP)||John Madigan (DLP)|
|Scott Ryan (LIB)||Michael Ronaldson (LIB)|
The 1951 election, which was the first to result in a Senate entirely elected by proportional representation, gave an overall result of 5 ALP senators, 4 Liberal senators and one Country Party senator. The 1953 election saw the ALP gain a seat off the Liberals, giving them a 6-4 majority. This was the only time the ALP, or any party, won a majority of Victoria’s Senate delegation under PR.
The 1955 election saw the party that became the Democratic Labor Party win a seat off the ALP. At the 1961 election, both the DLP and the ALP lost a Senate seat, with the Liberals winning two, giving them five seats, with three ALP and one each for the DLP and Country Party. In 1964, the DLP regained their single Senate seat from the Liberal Party. In 1967, the DLP gained a second seat off the Country Party, who were left with no Victorian senators.
The 1970 election saw the Country Party regain their seat, off the ALP. The ALP was reduced to three seats, with four Liberals and two DLP senators. The 1974 double dissolution saw the ALP regain ground, with both DLP senators being defeated, and the ALP gaining two seats, bringing their contingent to five out of ten senators.
The 1975 double dissolution reduced the ALP to four seats, with the National Country Party gaining a second seat. The 1977 election saw former Liberal minister Don Chipp elected to the Senate for the newly-formed Australian Democrats. The National Country Party lost one of its senators to the Democrats. The 1980 election saw the NCP lose its other seat to the Democrats.
In the 1983 double dissolution, the ALP gained a fifth seat at the expense of the second Democrats senator. At the 1984 election, an increase in Senators saw the Liberals and Democrats each gain an extra seat. The Democrats again lost their second Victorian senator at the 1987 double dissolution to Nationals candidate Julian McGauran.
The 1990 election saw McGauran defeated, and the Democrats again regain their second seat. The 1993 election saw the Democrats lose a seat yet again to the Nationals. This produced a result of five each for the ALP and Liberals, and one each for the Nationals and Democrats. This status quo was maintained until the 2004 election, when the ALP lost one of its five senate seats to Family First’s Steven Fielding.
The 2007 election saw the ALP regain a fifth seat at the expense of the Democrats, who lost their last Victorian senator. In 2010, the Coalition lost one of their three seats, and Family First’s Steve Fielding also lost his seat. These two seats went to the Greens’ Richard Di Natale and the Democratic Labor Party’s John Madigan, shifting the split from 4-2 to the right to 3-3.
|Democratic Labor Party||75,145||2.33||+1.30||0.1634|
|Australian Sex Party||72,899||2.26||+2.26||0.1585|
|Shooters and Fishers||44,639||1.39||+0.72||0.0971|
The ALP and the Liberal Party each won two seats on primary votes, and the Greens won one seat. The final seat was decided by preferences.
After most candidates were eliminated, the final seat was a race between the third Labor candidate, the third Coalition candidate, along with candidates from the Sex Party, the Democratic Labor Party, Family First and the Liberal Democrats:
- Antony Thow (ALP) – 0.6658 quotas
- Julian McGauran (LIB) – 0.5171
- John Madigan (DLP) – 0.2330
- Fiona Patten (SXP) – 0.2328
- Steve Fielding (FF) – 0.2141
- Ross Currie (LDP) – 0.1361
The LDP’s preferences flowed overwhelmingly to the Sex Party’s Fiona Patten.
- Thow (ALP) – 0.6667
- McGauran (LIB) – 0.5188
- Patten (SXP) – 0.3606
- Madigan (DLP) – 0.2336
- Fielding (FF) – 0.2192
Senator Steve Fielding was knocked out, and most of his vote flowed to the DLP’s Madigan.
- Thow (ALP) – 0.6688
- McGauran (LIB) – 0.5267
- Madigan (DLP) – 0.4313
- Patten (SXP) – 0.3716
The majority of Patten’s preferences flowed to the ALP, but enough flowed to Madigan to push him ahead of McGauran.
- Thow (ALP) – 0.8905
- Madigan (DLP) – 0.5694
- McGauran (LIB) – 0.5379
McGauran’s preferences flowed overwhelmingly to the DLP, and Madigan defeated Labor by a margin of .08 of a quota.
- Madigan (DLP) – 1.0815
- Thow (ALP) – 0.9150
The Coalition are running:
The ALP are running:
The Greens are running former Mayor of Maribyrnong Janet Rice. The Wikileaks Party is running its leader Julian Assange. The Pirate Party are running Joe Miles. Katter’s Australian Party is running Robert Danieli. Family First are running Ashley Fenn. The Country Alliance is running Andrew Jones. The Stable Population Party is running Clifford Hayes. The Australian Christians are running Vickie Janson. The Palmer United Party are running Barry Michael. The Democratic Labor Party is running Mark Farrell. The 21st Century Australia Party is running Jonathan Horne. The Animal Justice Party is running Bruce Poon. The Socialist Equality Party is running Patrick O’Connor. The Secular Party is running John Perkins.
In 2010, the left block ended up after preferences with 3.91 quotas, including the Greens, Labor and parties that preferenced them.
It is likely that there will be enough of a swing to the Liberal/National coalition to elect a third Coalition senator.
Labor should comfortably win two seats, but in the current environment are unlikely to gain ground sufficient to win a third seat.
The final seat is likely to go to the Greens, but will be challenged by the Sex Party and Julian Assange. Labor’s preferences will be important, as they will likely have a sizeable surplus.
If the Greens’ vote is close to its size in 2010, and manage to gain Labor preferences, they should win. However it is not inconceivable that the Greens will lose ground to smaller progressive parties and could be overtaken by minor parties.