Deakin – Australia 2013

ALP 0.6%

Incumbent MP
Mike Symon, since 2007.

Map of Deakin’s 2010 and 2013 boundaries. 2010 boundaries appear as red line, 2013 boundaries appear as white area. Click to enlarge.

Geography
Eastern suburbs of Melbourne. Main suburbs are Blackburn, Nunawading, Mitcham, Ringwood, Heathmont, Croydon and Vermont. Seat covers a majority of Maroondah and Whitehorse local government areas.

Redistribution
The southwestern corner of the seat (including Burwood East and Forest Hill) was transferred to Chisholm. Those parts of Aston in Whitehorse LGA(including Vermont South) were transferred into Deakin. Areas around Croydon and Ringwood North were transferred from Casey and Menzies into Deakin. The redistribution reduced the Labor margin from 2.4% to 0.6%.

History
Deakin was first created in 1937, and has only been won by the ALP twice in that time, being almost always held by the United Australia Party and Liberal Party.

The seat originally covered rural areas to the east and north-east of Melbourne, until the 1968 redistribution moved the seat into the eastern suburbs of Melbourne, in the same sort of area that the seat covers today.

The seat was first won by the UAP’s William Hutchinson in 1937. Hutchinson had previously held the neighbouring seat of Indi. Hutchinson joined the Liberal Party in 1944 and retired from Parliament at the 1949 election. Frank Davis then held it until 1966, when Alan Jarman won the seat. Jarman was defeated by John Saunderson (ALP) in 1983. Saunderson moved to the new seat of Aston in 1984, when Julian Beale won the seat for the Liberals.

Beale was succeded in 1990 by Ken Aldred. Aldred had previously been elected at the 1983 Bruce by-election and held Bruce until the 1990 redistribution. Aldred was disendorsed before the 1996 election after raising conspiracy theories in Parliament, based on documents supplied by the Citizens Electoral Council. Aldred was later selected by local branches to run in the marginal seat of Holt at the 2007 election before having his preselection vetoed by the state party.

The seat was won in 1996 by Phil Barresi, who held it until his defeat in 2007 by the ALP’s Mike Symon.

Candidates

  • Ian Dobby (Australian Christians)
  • Yasmin De Zilwa (Rise Up Australia)
  • Toni Smith (Country Alliance)
  • Michael Sukkar (Liberal)
  • Mario Guardiani (Palmer United Party)
  • Steve Raskovy (Katter’s Australian Party)
  • John Carbonari (Australia First)
  • Mike Barclay (Independent)
  • Stephen Barber (Sex Party)
  • Hannah Westbrook (Family First)
  • Brendan Powell (Greens)
  • Mike Symon (Labor)

Assessment
Deakin is Labor’s second-most marginal seat in Australia. The ALP has generally performed better in Victoria than in other states in recent times and it is possible that this seat won’t follow the national trend.

2010 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Phil BarresiLIB33,55341.94-2.41
Mike SymonALP31,94139.93-1.93
David HowellGRN10,33812.92+4.44
Peter LakeFF2,5323.17+0.02
Abraham SeviloglouIND8361.05+1.05
Benjamin WalshLDP5050.63-0.08
Alex NorwickAF2950.37+0.37

2010 two-candidate-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Mike SymonALP41,92752.41+1.00
Phil BarresiLIB38,07347.59-1.00

Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into four areas. Two of them lie in Whitehorse council (South and West) and the other two in Maroondah council (East and North-East).

The ALP won a majority in the west and east, while the Liberal Party won a majority in the northeast and south.

Polling booths in Deakin at the 2010 federal election. East in blue, North-East in yellow, West in green, South in red.
Voter groupGRN %ALP 2PP %Total votes% of ordinary votes
West14.6954.6823,50736.33
East12.9253.2314,54022.47
North-East12.2048.9914,30822.12
South10.8247.5412,34219.08
Other votes12.6649.3920,140
Two-party-preferred votes in Deakin at the 2010 federal election.
Greens primary votes in Deakin at the 2010 federal election.

30 COMMENTS

  1. Hard call. I would’ve thought that this seat was considered part of Melbourne’s eastern mortgage belt, and the mortgage belt is supposed to be representative of families struggling under the rising costs of living, including the carbon tax. But if Abbott’s as unpopular in Victoria as we’ve been led to believe, Labor will probably hold. I’d be tempted to bet each way on this.

  2. If it weren’t for the redistribution id say he could hold this but this should fall with a swing of under 4%

  3. Australia First Party has John Carbonari standing in Deakin.
    Platform includes for shutting down the big business immigration disaster and exponental growth economic madness.

    Stay tuned!

  4. Well you can’t possibly lose with a 46% primary vote with 20% others (if others are repeated from the last election), can you?

  5. Sorry that should be 47%, I was only looking at swings from the last election but there’s been a boundary shift here of about 1.5% to the Liberals favour.

  6. And wat I’m asking is whether its a lead that will sustain for the libs until the 7th, or is a margin that can change to either party throughout the campaign

  7. “Your saying that the ALP would be in mid 30s then”. Yes, about that.

    “whether its a lead that will sustain for the libs until the 7th”. Who knows. Nothing is set in concrete Observer.

  8. Depends on the makeup of the 20%, DB. If it’s mostly Greens and Sex Party (and KAP, maybe, depending on how they end up preferencing), then Labor could still end up ahead. If it were mostly Christians, PUP, and Australia First, then Liberals would easily hold with a big margin (of course, we know that Greens will make up in the vicinity of half of the 20%, so it’s not going to be the latter case).

    I typically look at the senate when I want some idea of how the seat is likely to play. Ignoring redistribution, of course. What I notice is that, in 2010, the Greens did better here in the Senate than in the House, at 16.5% of the vote. Sex Party got 2%. On the right, Family First got 3%, DLP got 1.6%, and LDP got 1.4%. No other minor party or independent broke 1%.

    I’d be interested to hear the “uncommitted” percentage from this internal polling. Four weeks away from the actual election, you’d expect a healthy number still uncommitted… and based on the numbers we’ve been hearing, I think those who were leaning towards the Liberals have firmed quicker than those who were leaning towards Labor.

  9. Australia First Party has chosen John Carbonari as its candidate for the electorate of Deakin in the poll of 7th September. Mr Carbonari has been a small businessman, and is committed to the values of Australian Independence, Identity and Freedom, which underpin the standard of living, and quality of life for our People.

    Mr. Carbonari said:

    [SNIP – for being far too long]

  10. “The Galaxy poll also showed the seat of Deakin would be lost” but there don’t seem to be any numbers…?

    Perhaps they are assuming if Chisholm is close, Deakin would go, which is a fair assumption.

  11. I predict a Liberal gain in line with the state swing.

    The seat is so homogenous politically that the Liberals could probably turn every single booth blue (albeit on narrow margins)…..

  12. From the John Carbonari/AFP election brochure for Deakin
    “The Liberals/Labor/Greens offer you:-

    Soup kitchens in Maroondah and district.
    Homelessness – people sleeping in cars.
    Senior citizens skimping on food – going without to pay utility bills, and to survive.
    Dire unemployment leading to poverty. [6000 applicants for 350 jobs at American Costco Stores in Ringwood in June 2013].
    Swarm level Third World Immigration destroying our sense of an Aussie Community. Roads/ Hospitals, etc, all clogged – population overload.
    Plagues of fake refugees sucking up Aussie needed welfare and resources
    $$$Millions wasted on useless foreign aid whilst many Aussies are down and out.”

  13. ^My goodness, what a load of dribble.

    Given Aust avoided the GFC and that the economy has been very strong in the last few years you have to wonder what the likes of these type of idiots would be stating if we were actually experiencing real economic problems like the US, Spain, Portugal or Greece.

  14. I’m in deakin and last election I voted independants. This election my wife and I are putting labor as number 1, but voting below the line in the senate.

    I’m scared of all the cuts that Abbott is putting through, primarily the NBN. This is something that Australia needs, especially to get rid of the Telstra monopoly. The Carbon tax hasn’t really affected anyone, it’s just a beat up. We were given a couple of tax cuts over the last few years, so it ended up evening things up. I’m really hoping the polls are wrong and there are more people in this area that can see the truth behind all the media lies.

    We have the third lowest debt in the world, yet we seem focused on the fact that we have a huge debt. Once the NBN has been put in place, it will build alot more IT Jobs in the country, plus it will be a huge advantage to science, medical and e-commerce. The importance of the NBN cannot be underestimated.

  15. Why was this seat reorganised, simply for population number balancing? Voted Green in the westernmost part last time, will do again.

    This seat will for sure go Liberal.

  16. Agree, MoVENTURA 100%. I usually vote Greens/Indo but will #1 Labour this time, first time ever. Deakin is so marginal I simply have to do all I can with my bit of paper to say “no” to the current “policy” platform of the Libs. Can’t believe they’ve gotten away with a campaign of zero substance. It’s an insult to the electorate. There is no vision, no acknowledgement that we’re actually doing pretty well considering conditions in the big bad world – agree 100% with YAPPO too. Glossy pamphlets with grandiose sweeping statements like “we will create 2 million jobs”- no detail behind it – shoddy & shocking. Hope Deakin doesn’t swallow it.

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