Last Friday the AEC released the final Queensland electoral boundaries for the next federal election. These boundaries include a small number of changes from the draft boundaries, and Antony Green has posted updated notional margins for each seat based on the 2007 election results. You can download the new boundaries as a Google Earth map here. I will also update the pendulum on the federal election guide tonight to include Queensland electorates.
Click to enlarge and see seat names
Petrie is an odd shape.
It’s basically swings and roundabouts.
LNP gets a boost in Wright at the expense of their chances in Forde. Dickson becomes more favourable for the LNP while Labor’s margin is boosted in Longman. And Petrie returns to the marginal column while Lilley once again becomes safe.
Don’t think either side can complain too much about these boundaries.
Fairfax and Wright look gerrymandered. Not saying that they actually are, they just look like it with those odd attachments they both have in the west.
@MDMConnell
Peter Dutton isn’t standing again in Dickson because it is now notional labor seat. (1% margin) I dont know how you come to the conclusion that no one has anything to complain about. I think the ALP have come out way ahead in this lot.
I also heard on the grapevine that Pauline Hanson is going to stand in wright to draw the coalition vote over to the government. as she did in 2007 with the senate vote
Tony,
I meant in comparison to the draft boundaries (which, yes, did favour Labor). Sites like Pollbludger viewed the final boundaries as a boost to the LNP compared to the drafts, but as I say, I think it’s about a 50-50.
Sorry if I didn’t make that clear.
Latest knews is that Dutton will stand in Dickson
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/10/20/2719269.htm?section=australia
Not that he has a chance after demonstrating that he doesn’t want to be there.
Tony, “I also heard on the grapevine that Pauline Hanson is going to stand in wright to draw the coalition vote over to the government. as she did in 2007 with the senate vote.” What? Hanson’s a Labor Party stooge now? Get real.
*news
I don’t think Hanson’s smart or cunning enough to do that deliberately, but One Nation probably has done more damage to the conservatives than Labor, especially since ON is supposed to be a right-wing party.
If Hanson stood in Wright – which wouldn’t surprise me as it will make her a few quid again – her preferences would clearly go to the Nat there. With all due respect to anyone who lives there, it’s hardly prime progressive territory.
ON certainly wrecked the Nats in QLD in 1998, but they were an incoherent party and one largely made up of people who felt they were marginalised by a globalised world; so they were basically a more radical front of the National Party. I would say that the majority of these voters have found their way back with the Nats (or maybe the DLP).
Final NSW boundaries up on AEC’s site now as well.
A few fairly minor nips and tucks to several seats, but no radical re-invention.
* Exchange of Forbes/Parkes for Wellington/Midwestern between Parkes and Calare (Nat objection- assume it benefits them in Calare).
* Re-uniting a few thousand electors in some rural shires (Tenterfield, Gwydir, Lachlan, Central Darling)
* Very minor touch ups to a handful of rural and urban seats.
* Most significant change is the proposed ‘McMahon’ being re-named ‘Reid’, with the existing division of Prospect being given the new name of ‘McMahon’.
The majority of new DLP members still come out of the ALP. We do see some coming in from the old Democrats and of course the traditional Qld National is attracted as well. I dont know of any that have come from One Nation. But that may come.
As for Hamish’s comment What? Hanson’s a Labor Party stooge now? Get real.
Pauline has made a habit of punishing the Liberals for not preferencing her in the past. I thought you’d be aware of that, and the fact that she helped elected Senator Furner in 2007
Ben, if you do an updated version of the map some time, shift Bowman from Gold Coast to Brisbane – Redlands is always considered part of Brisbane.
If you overlap them with the LGA boundaries, then I think both seats make sense. (Although in the case of Fairfax it’d be the pre-amalgamation LGA boundary.)