NZ 2014 – Results live

Final update for Saturday night

Party Votes % Swing Electorate seats List seats Total seats
National 1,010,464 48.06 0.75 41 20 61
Labour 519,146 24.69 -2.79 27 5 32
Green 210,764 10.02 -1.04 0 13 13
New Zealand First 186,031 8.85 2.26 0 11 11
Conservative 86,616 4.12 1.47 0 0 0
Māori Party 27,074 1.29 -0.14 1 1 2
Internet Mana 26,539 1.26 0.18 0 0 0
ACT 14,510 0.69 -0.38 1 0 1
United Future 4,533 0.22 -0.38 1 0 1
Others 16,994 0.81 0.21 0 0 0

11:48pm – I’m going to check out now, but I’ll be back tomorrow with a general update. I don’t think we’ll see any more changes in the seat count tonight. Over the coming days we’ll be watching the special votes to see if the party votes might change the number of list seats each party wins. The 12th New Zealand First candidate is ranked 122nd, while the 14th Green candidate (Steffan Browning) is ranked 127th. In addition, we’ll have to keep an eye on the result in Hutt South to see if Trevor Mallard can hold on. Auckland Central is also close, but both candidates in the race are guaranteed list seats if they lose the race.

11:20pm – It seems like the only electorate seat in play is Trevor Mallard’s seat of Hutt South, where he is only 1.07% ahead with one booth to come, as well as special votes.

Read the rest of this entry »

NZ 2014 – election day

Voters are now going to the polls in New Zealand to elect the next Parliament – and therefore their new government – for the next three years.

Polls close at 7pm tonight New Zealand time – which is 5pm where I am in Sydney. I will be covering the results from the time polls close tonight.

If I was in New Zealand, I wouldn’t be able to put up this post now – because New Zealand’s Electoral Act is extremely severe in effectively banning all political activity from midnight until polls close on election day. You can’t hand out at polling places, you can’t suggest to people how they should vote anywhere. Parties must take down all signs related to the election, and campaigners can’t wear campaign t-shirts on the day. It gets even more ridiculous than that – check out any New Zealand news website today, and there will be no evidence that the country is voting in a national election today. And even social media users are warned against stating who they voted for, or suggesting who others should vote for, lest they fall foul of the law and cop a hefty fine.

Personally I’m a fan of banning campaigning outside polling places, but restricting people talking about how they are voting on social media, or restricting newspapers from reporting the election, is going too far. In 2011, Antony Green posted about the spookily quiet scene outside of one of Auckland’s busiest polling places.

Fortunately, the law only applies to activity in New Zealand, so I’m free to talk about it here.

Most polls in the last few days suggest a few clear points:

  • A record-high vote for the National Party, likely just falling short of a majority
  • A very low vote for Labour, possible a record low vote.
  • A reasonably high Green vote, probably higher than the record vote recorded in 2011.
  • New Zealand First on track to poll over 5% and return to Parliament
  • The Conservative Party vote tracking more highly, but not over 5%.
  • Internet Mana polling relatively low, likely polling at a level that will win them two seats
  • ACT and United Future polling so low that their parties may qualify for zero seats, even if their parties win their respective electorates.

Read on for what the polling averages say, and what that could mean for the formation of New Zealand’s next government.

Read the rest of this entry »

Scottish independence: results live

Results summary – 32 out of 32 councils reporting

Votes %
Yes 1,617,989 44.68
No 2,001,926 55.28
Total 3,621,107
Turnout 84.49%

3:14pm – With the declaration of the result in Fife, it is now mathematically impossible for Yes to win. There are two more councils – Highlands and Moray – yet to report, but I’m going to leave the commentary here. I will update the tables later today when they are declared, and I plan to do another blog post tonight/tomorrow morning summarising the results, but that’s it for now.

Read the rest of this entry »

Seat #15: East Coast Bays

Eastcoastbays1-NATpartyEast Coast Bays is a National Party electorate in the northern suburbs of Auckland.

East Coast Bays covers a very conservative area, and on paper the seat is very safe for Foreign Minister Murray McCully, who has sat as a National MP representing the area since 1987.

Conservative Party leader Colin Craig is running in East Coast Bays, and is aiming to win the seat to make the party eligible to win list seats. Craig was hoping to organise a deal with the National Party whereby McCully would withdraw from the East Coast Bays ballot to clear the way for the Conservative Party to win, and bring in a number of other right-wing MPs to strengthen the National Party’s position after the election.

While the National Party is effectively “running dead” to support the ACT candidate in Epsom, and the sitting United Future MP in Ōhariu, but in both cases a National candidate remains on the ballot.

The Conservative Party has gained ground in recent polls, but is still unlikely to poll over 5%. If Craig doesn’t pull off an unlikely win in East Coast Bays, a substantial chunk of the right-wing vote could go to waste.

Read more

Seat #14: Te Tai Tonga

Tetaitonga1-boothsTe Tai Tonga is a Māori electorate covering all of the South Island and most of the Wellington region.

The electorate was won by the Māori Party’s Rahui Katene in 2008, and won back by Labour’s Rino Tirikatene in 2011.

Tirikatene holds the seat by an 8.8% margin.

Read more