11:52pm – Just to be clear, that’s it from me tonight. As it currently stands, the ALP holds 44 seats, needing one more to form a majority. There are three seats undecided. Labor leads the LNP in Whitsunday, and the LNP leads Labor in Mansfield. In Maryborough, the seat will either be won by Labor or independent former MP Chris Foley. This means that Labor will almost certainly form government – probably as a majority government.
I’ll come back in the morning at the main blog, with results by region and a breakdown of the key seats.
9:22pm – I don’t think we’re going to know much more for tonight. The ALP now holds 44 seats, and the LNP 39. Labor needs to win one of the three undecided seats for a majority, and they’re expected to win all three. On these numbers, the LNP has no chance to win a majority. While this seems likely, it’s still possible that other seats could return to the ‘undecided’ column. Those three seats are Mansfield in southern Brisbane, Maryborough in central Queensland and Whitsunday in north Queensland.
8:55pm – At the moment, the ABC is giving 43 seats to Labor and 39 to the LNP. The remaining four seats are Mansfield, Maryborough, Pumicestone and Whitsunday. Labor is leading in all four seats.
8:51pm – It’s quite hard to be precise about which seats are still in play, with seats moving from “decided” to “undecided” and back again. However there are definitely 46 seats where Labor is leading, and 40 where the LNP is leading.
8:46pm – Labor has also convincingly won back in Townsville and Cairns, regaining Barron River, Cairns, Cook, Mundingburra, Thuringowa and Townsville, as well as Bundaberg, Mirani, Keppel and Gladstone in central Queensland.
8:14pm – Interesting thing to note – the ALP is yet to gain any seats on the Gold Coast. They are narrowly behind in Albert. Apart from Albert, the LNP has retained their seats and regained independent-held Gaven. In contrast, Labor has gained at least 22 seats in the greater Brisbane area (including Ipswich).
8:06pm – At this point, Labor is on 41 seats. They need another four to win a majority, and there are nine undecided seats and they are leading in five.
7:43pm – PUP state leader John Bjelke-Petersen has fallen short against Deputy Premier Jeff Seeney in Callide.
7:24pm – Labor could certainly win this. The ABC computer is giving the ALP 42 seats, and only 36 to the LNP.
7:21pm – In other news, the ALP is slightly ahead in the by-election for the SA Liberal seat of Davenport. Labor is leading by 68 votes after preferences off 4/9 polling places.
7:14pm – Pauline Hanson is polling over 30% in Lockyer off 16 booths, but it’s hard to see her benefiting from preferences, so should lose.
7:12pm – The safest seat that appears to have fallen is Kallangur, but at the moment the results are consistent with a narrow LNP victory.
7:10pm – Swings are varying widely between different seats, from 9% to 20%, but there are seats around the 11% mark that are falling, and others that are holding.
7:07pm – Labor appears to have regained the independent seat of Gladstone.
7:01pm – Labor on track to win Capalaba, Ipswich West, Kallangur and Mirani..
7:00pm – Labor leading in Mirani and Broadwater, amongst others.
6:57pm – Unsurprisingly, there are big swings to Labor and away from the LNP, but we don’t know whether it’s enough to change government.
6:29pm – Sadly my website is not able to handle the demand of people wishing to visit. I will be looking to finally change my host next week (time ran out before today), and in the meantime this website will be where I will be posting results.
6:07pm – This election has been fought over a huge range of seats. If the ALP is to win, they’ll need to be winning seats in the 10-15% range according to the pendulum. I’ve gone through some of the key seats in my election guide.
6:00pm AEST – Polls have just closed in Queensland, and we should be expecting results in 30-45 minutes time. About an hour ago we saw Channel Nine release a Galaxy exit poll which predicted that Labor would win 54% of the two-party-preferred vote.
If that was true, it would suggest a comfortable victory for Labor across Queensland. Exit polls don’t have a great record in Australia, so take that all with a grain of salt.
It’s also worth noting that polls closed half an hour ago in the state by-election for the southern Adelaide seat of Davenport. We should be getting results in that seat shortly.
I will be on 2SER tonight from 7pm-8pm Brisbane time (an hour later in Sydney and Melbourne). I will likely be blogging less during this time period, but will be with you all night.