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QLD 2015 – election night

11:52pm – Just to be clear, that’s it from me tonight. As it currently stands, the ALP holds 44 seats, needing one more to form a majority. There are three seats undecided. Labor leads the LNP in Whitsunday, and the LNP leads Labor in Mansfield. In Maryborough, the seat will either be won by Labor or independent former MP Chris Foley. This means that Labor will almost certainly form government – probably as a majority government.

I’ll come back in the morning at the main blog, with results by region and a breakdown of the key seats.

9:22pm – I don’t think we’re going to know much more for tonight. The ALP now holds 44 seats, and the LNP 39. Labor needs to win one of the three undecided seats for a majority, and they’re expected to win all three. On these numbers, the LNP has no chance to win a majority. While this seems likely, it’s still possible that other seats could return to the ‘undecided’ column. Those three seats are Mansfield in southern Brisbane, Maryborough in central Queensland and Whitsunday in north Queensland.

8:55pm – At the moment, the ABC is giving 43 seats to Labor and 39 to the LNP. The remaining four seats are Mansfield, Maryborough, Pumicestone and Whitsunday. Labor is leading in all four seats.

8:51pm – It’s quite hard to be precise about which seats are still in play, with seats moving from “decided” to “undecided” and back again. However there are definitely 46 seats where Labor is leading, and 40 where the LNP is leading.

8:46pm – Labor has also convincingly won back in Townsville and Cairns, regaining Barron River, Cairns, Cook, Mundingburra, Thuringowa and Townsville, as well as Bundaberg, Mirani, Keppel and Gladstone in central Queensland.

8:14pm – Interesting thing to note – the ALP is yet to gain any seats on the Gold Coast. They are narrowly behind in Albert. Apart from Albert, the LNP has retained their seats and regained independent-held Gaven. In contrast, Labor has gained at least 22 seats in the greater Brisbane area (including Ipswich).

8:06pm – At this point, Labor is on 41 seats. They need another four to win a majority, and there are nine undecided seats and they are leading in five.

7:43pm – PUP state leader John Bjelke-Petersen has fallen short against Deputy Premier Jeff Seeney in Callide.

7:24pm – Labor could certainly win this. The ABC computer is giving the ALP 42 seats, and only 36 to the LNP.

7:21pm – In other news, the ALP is slightly ahead in the by-election for the SA Liberal seat of Davenport. Labor is leading by 68 votes after preferences off 4/9 polling places.

7:14pm – Pauline Hanson is polling over 30% in Lockyer off 16 booths, but it’s hard to see her benefiting from preferences, so should lose.

7:12pm – The safest seat that appears to have fallen is Kallangur, but at the moment the results are consistent with a narrow LNP victory.

7:10pm – Swings are varying widely between different seats, from 9% to 20%, but there are seats around the 11% mark that are falling, and others that are holding.

7:07pm – Labor appears to have regained the independent seat of Gladstone.

7:01pm – Labor on track to win Capalaba, Ipswich West, Kallangur and Mirani..

7:00pm – Labor leading in Mirani and Broadwater, amongst others.

6:57pm – Unsurprisingly, there are big swings to Labor and away from the LNP, but we don’t know whether it’s enough to change government.

6:29pm – Sadly my website is not able to handle the demand of people wishing to visit. I will be looking to finally change my host next week (time ran out before today), and in the meantime this website will be where I will be posting results.

6:07pm – This election has been fought over a huge range of seats. If the ALP is to win, they’ll need to be winning seats in the 10-15% range according to the pendulum. I’ve gone through some of the key seats in my election guide.

6:00pm AEST – Polls have just closed in Queensland, and we should be expecting results in 30-45 minutes time. About an hour ago we saw Channel Nine release a Galaxy exit poll which predicted that Labor would win 54% of the two-party-preferred vote.

If that was true, it would suggest a comfortable victory for Labor across Queensland. Exit polls don’t have a great record in Australia, so take that all with a grain of salt.

It’s also worth noting that polls closed half an hour ago in the state by-election for the southern Adelaide seat of Davenport. We should be getting results in that seat shortly.

I will be on 2SER tonight from 7pm-8pm Brisbane time (an hour later in Sydney and Melbourne). I will likely be blogging less during this time period, but will be with you all night.

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QLD 2015 – lunchtime update

There’s a lot going on in Queensland today, so here’s a fresh blogpost to tide you over until polls close. There are multiple reports of voters being turned away due to a lack of ID (which shouldn’t stop them from voting), the LNP is pushing hard to encourage people to ‘just vote 1′, and the LNP is also attempting to stop GetUp! from handing out their how-to-vote cards.

Voter ID confusion on booths

There are multiple reports of people being turned away from voting due to lack of identification, despite the law allowing them to cast a vote.

The Townsville Bulletin has reported that people have been turned away in Burdekin, and itself misreports the story by claiming that ID is compulsory.

Here at the Tally Room I’ve received an email from a woman in Hervey Bay discussing people being turned away there, and I understand there are other reports.

GetUp! (disclaimer: I’m employed by GetUp!) are running a hotline to collect stories of these laws being implemented incorrectly, and to answer questions.

Just to clarify, while it is slightly easier to vote with ID, you can still vote without it.

Courtesy Chris O’Regan on Twitter

LNP corflutes strongly pushing ‘just vote 1′

There appear to be multiple corflutes being used by the Liberal National Party to push their message that people should only number one box.

A plain ‘Just Vote 1′ corflute is being used in some places, in the same shade of maroon often used by the Electoral Commission of Queensland. There is no indication that is an LNP corflute apart from the authorisation.

This isn’t a new phenomenon. In 2009, I recorded similarly plain corflutes being used in Indooroopilly, where the LNP benefited from weak preference flows between Labor and the Greens (sadly the image has since been lost, but the post is here).

1557429_10155084621850004_593924338607710840_nIn another seat, this photo was taken showing an LNP corflute comparing the “Certainty” of the LNP versus the “Chaos” of directing preferences. Again, this appears to mislead voters by comparing the Queensland elections to Senate elections, despite huge differences in the electoral system.

Anti-LNP parties and groups have been working hard to encourage people to preference, and it will be interesting to see how that goes.

LNP goes to the Supreme Court to stop GetUp

Campaign group GetUp (again, they are my employer) is handing out how-to-vote cards in Queensland. GetUp’s how-to-vote cards encourage voters to vote for Labor or the Greens (and in one seat KAP) and then preference those other parties.

The HTV cards focus on issues around the Great Barrier Reef, and criticise the LNP’s policy on the Reef.

According to a media release from GetUp, the Liberal National Party is apparently seeking an injunction in the Queensland Supreme Court to block the how-to-votes, which are being distributed across a number of key electorates.

Update: it appears that the LNP was challenging GetUp how-to-votes as they had not been registered with the Electoral Commission. While parties and candidates are required to register how-to-votes in Queensland, third parties like GetUp are not obliged to do so, and the court case was dismissed.

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QLD 2015 – election day

Polls have just opened in Queensland for election day.

We now have three major polling companies giving us the same figures for the statewide two-party-preferred vote: Galaxy, Reachtel and Newspoll are all giving the LNP 52% and ALP 48%. If those numbers are true, the ALP should gain a lot of seats, but probably not enough to win government.

In the meantime, another poll has indicated that Campbell Newman will lose in his seat of Ashgrove, with Newspoll giving Kate Jones 55% of the two-party-preferred vote.

If you’re voting today, good luck. This will be the first major test of Queensland’s new voter ID laws.

It’s easier to vote if you have ID, and there are a wide range of forms of ID you can use (including the letter you should have received from the ECQ), but if you don’t have ID, you can still vote.

There have been a disturbing number of cases of casual ECQ staff, both on the hotline and at pre-poll, telling voters that they can’t vote if they don’t have ID, or if their ID doesn’t match their name on the roll. If that happens to you, it’d be good to know about it, so post a comment below.

Otherwise, good luck voting. I’ll be back at 6pm Brisbane time to start covering the results, and I’ll be on 2SER from 8pm-9pm Sydney time (7pm-8pm Brisbane time) tonight.

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Seat #89: Mansfield

Mansfield1-2PPMansfield is an LNP seat in south-eastern Brisbane, covering Mansfield, Wishart, Upper Mount Gravatt and Mackenzie, and parts of Mount Gravatt and Eight Mile Plains.

The LNP’s Ian Walker won Mansfield in 2012 with a 15.5% swing, and now holds the seat by a 11.1% margin.

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Seat #88: Mirani

Mirani1-2PPMirani is an LNP seat in north Queensland, covering coastal areas between Mackay and Rockhampton, including Mount Morgan, Dysart and Middlemount.

The LNP’s Ted Malone has held Mirani since 1994. Malone holds Mirani by an 11.2% margin, but is retiring in 2015.

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Seat #87: Broadwater

Broadwater1-2PPBroadwater is an LNP seat on the Gold Coast, covering the suburbs of Labrador, Biggera Waters, Runaway Bay, Coombabah and Paradise Point as well as South Stradbroke Island.

Broadwater was won in 2012 by LNP candidate Verity Barton with a 13.3% swing, and she holds Broadwater by a margin of 11.3%.

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QLD 2015 – the final day

Queenslanders go to the polls tomorrow morning to elect a new Parliament, three years after giving power to the Liberal National Party in a massive landslide, and reducing Labor to a rump.

While the LNP has maintained a small lead in most polls this year, yesterday’s Essential poll had Labor draw even with the LNP, polling 50% of the two-party-preferred vote.

Reachtel and Newspoll polls in the first week of January both had the LNP and Labor tied, 50-50, but in the intervening period the LNP has won every poll, if not by large margins.

In addition, there has been a smattering of electorate-level polls. Overall, these polls have all suggested a large swing to Labor, but not necessarily enough to change the government.

A Galaxy poll two weeks ago covered eight marginal seats, seven held by the LNP. Two had a solid Labor lead, and another four had a slim Labor lead, and in one seat the major parties were tied. Newspoll also conducted a poll of three marginal LNP seats in Cairns, Ipswich and central Queensland, suggesting a sizeable swing to Labor.

Quite a lot of the campaign has been focused on Campbell Newman’s seat of Ashgrove. Newman hasn’t won a single poll in his seat for a couple of years, and that includes at least two in the last two weeks. A Newspoll Ashgrove poll had Labor leading 51-49, and a Reachtel poll released earlier this week had Kate Jones increasing her lead to 54-46.

All of this opens up the very real possibility of the LNP holding onto power while Campbell Newman loses his own seat of Ashgrove. Campbell Newman has repeatedly insisted that Ashgrove and the state of Queensland will swing together, despite polls indicating otherwise, and the fact that a uniform swing sufficient to give Ashgrove to Labor would be barely half of that required for Labor to form government.

It’s not the only part of the LNP’s campaign that relies on fudging how elections work. The LNP has also been running hard on fears of a hung parliament and lack of public understanding about how preferences work, by suggesting that minor parties are “harvesting” preferences, and insisting that voters numbering preferences will help elect minor parties. In reality, the Queensland election is very different to Senate elections, and voters numbering preferences is only likely to help Labor.

I’ll be back tomorrow morning with an election-day thread. On election night, I’ll be on the Election Nerds show on 2SER at 8pm Sydney time (7pm Brisbane time) discussing the results, along with the usual liveblog.

In the meantime, you can use this post as the traditional prediction thread. Post below what you think the result will be, being as general or as specific as you wish. As always, all 89 seat pages have open comment threads if you have thoughts about a particular seat.

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Seat #86: Albert

Albert1-2PPAlbert is an LNP seat covering the northern end of the Gold Coast and parts of the City of Logan. The seat covers the suburbs of Oxenford, Upper Coomera, Studio Village, Mount Warren Park, Windaroo and parts of Coomera, Ormeau and Pimpama.

The LNP’s Mark Boothman holds Albert by an 11.9% margin, after winning the seat in 2012 with a 18.4% swing.

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Seat #85: Pumicestone

Pumicestone1-2PPPumicestone is an LNP seat in the Moreton Bay area, covering parts of Bribie Island and areas between Bribie Island and Caboolture.

The LNP’s Lisa France holds Pumicestone by a 12.1% margin, after winning the seat in 2012 with a 17.1% swing.

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Seat #84: Kallangur

Kallangur1-2PPKallangur is an LNP seat to the north of Brisbane, covering the suburbs of Petrie, Kallangur, Murrumba Downs, Dakabin, Kurwongbah and parts of Narangba.

The LNP’s Trevor Ruthenberg won Kallangur in 2012 with a 17% swing, and he now holds the seat by a 12.4% margin.

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