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New dataset for website donors

I’ve just finished a big project pulling together a bunch of election data, which is part of a new benefit for people who donate to support this website via Patreon.

I’ve now got a complete set of booth-level vote data for every Queensland state election since 2004 (six elections) as well as every Brisbane City Council election since 2000 (five elections). This dataset includes the candidate lists, polling place lists including the geolocation, primary votes by polling place and (except for the oldest elections) two-candidate-preferred votes by polling place. If you’re looking for historical information on how voting patterns have changed over time there’s nothing better.

I’ve added this to my data repository, which includes booth-level data from every state election since 2012, as well as NSW council elections since that time.

I’ve decided to take parts of this data repository and just make them available to people who contribute to support this website via Patreon. I will keep the most recent election for each jurisdiction as publicly available, but older datasets will be shared with anyone who can chip in $5 or more per month.

People who support this website have given me the time to get the seat guides done and to launch the podcast. More donors will let me keep up this work but also use spare time to work on pulling together more datasets – I’m planning to put together a dataset of the recent federal by-elections (unlike general election data, the AEC data is missing important information for these by-elections) as well as the results of the 2010 Victorian and 2011 NSW state elections. If you find this useful, please sign up and you can access all of the data that I’ve produced so far.

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Podcast #8 – Wagga Wagga results and Banks

I’m joined by Ben Spies-Butcher and Amanda McCormack to discuss the Wagga Wagga by-election, the state of NSW politics six months before the state election, and the federal seat of Banks.

We also discussed Ann Sudmalis’ retirement announcement and Kerryn Phelps’ candidacy announcement.

Links to things discussed in the show:

You can subscribe using this RSS feed in your podcast app of choice, but should also be able to find this podcast by searching for “the Tally Room”. If you like the show please considering rating and reviewing us on iTunes.

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Wagga Wagga – results wash-up

Last night’s result was extremely bad for the Liberal Party. We won’t know who has won for sure for a few days or even a week, but it looks most likely that independent candidate Joe McGirr has won, and Labor probably has the next best shot at winning.

I’ve got a piece going up in the Guardian today analysing the broader significance of the result, but I’d just quickly note that this result follows up on large double-digit swings from the Nationals to the Shooters at by-elections in Orange, Cootamundra and Murray, which saw one of those seats fall. We have to assume that the coalition is on track for a big thumping in its rural heartland in March.

In this post I want to cover what the voting patterns were (including a map and a booth breakdown) and then how the preferences could shake out.

Read the rest of this entry »

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Wagga Wagga by-election live

Primary votes

CandidateVotes%Swing
Seb McDonagh (SFF)445610.010.0
Julia Ham (LIB)1120725.1-28.5
Joe McGirr (IND)1145025.625.6
Ray Goodlass (GRN)12852.9-1.8
Tom Arentz (CDP)8531.9-0.4
Paul Funnell (IND)483410.80.9
Dan Hayes (ALP)1064223.8-4.7

Two-party-preferred votes

CandidateVotes%Swing
Julia Ham (LIB)1118547.7-14.8
Dan Hayes (ALP)1227052.314.8
Exhausted6500

12:11 – Okay, not long ago we got the primary votes for the Wagga Wagga pre-poll centre. Following this point the NSWEC took down the two-party-preferred count, presumably because they’ll be running a Liberal vs McGirr 2CP count. While there is no guarantee that Labor couldn’t jump from third into second on minor candidate preferences, that 2CP count would give us a good sense of who will win. It seems likely McGirr will win that count.

That’s it for tonight, I’ll return tomorrow with some maps and analysis.

11:00 – If you found this work useful, please consider signing up as a donor on Patreon. It helps fund the work I do on this website as well as the podcast, which will cover this result in our next episode.

10:21 – We’re just waiting for one more booth tonight – Antony Green estimates there’s 12,000 votes at the Wagga pre-poll centre, and we should see these votes tonight. They’ll give us a much better idea of the result.

9:09 – We now have 2748 pre-poll votes reported for both primary and two-party-preferred votes. I expect more pre-poll votes, whereas my projection model compares these votes to the total pre-poll vote from 2015, so I’ve turned off the projections. The pre-poll swings so far have been slightly less bad for the Liberal Party than the election-day votes.

8:52 – We now have all ordinary election-day primary votes and are close to having two-party-preferred votes from all of the same booths (just two outstanding). Labor has taken a small but clear lead on the two-party-preferred vote, but that doesn’t tell us anything about how preferences would flow in a McGirr vs Liberal or McGirr vs Labor count.

8:41 – Labor has now taken a narrow lead on the 2PP count, but McGirr remains the favourite to win. Let’s wait for the pre-poll and iVotes before making any further conclusions about McGirr’s chances.

8:25 – If Labor were to come third and the final count was a Liberal vs McGirr race, it’s hard to see McGirr losing. He will be attracting Labor, Greens, Shooters and Funnell preferences, with only the CDP (on 1.9%) favouring the Liberal candidate.

8:11 – The two-party-preferred count remains close with the Liberal Party leading, but it seems pointless since McGirr seems set to make the top two.

7:58 – Nick Casmirri has pointed me to the ABC Elections website which includes the how-to-votes. Independent Paul Funnell has directed preferences to Joe McGirr. The Shooters have directed preferences to Labor, then McGirr, with the Liberal Party last. This would suggest that the Liberals are likely to stay in third place with most preferences splitting between Labor and McGirr, and then Liberal preferences will decide the outcome. The Liberal how-to-vote advises a ‘just vote 1’, but you’d assume they would favour McGirr, who has to be considered the favourite now.

7:53 – And the Liberals have now fallen into third. If the Liberals stay in third, I would presume that McGirr would do better than Labor from Shooters/Liberal preferences, but it won’t get resolved tonight.

7:47 – Alright we now have a lot more of the vote, including a lot of votes from urban Wagga Wagga, and the Liberal Party is in serious danger of falling into third place. The anti-Liberal primary vote swing is now over 30%, while the swing to Labor on the 2PP vote is up to 12.1%, which is almost enough for Labor to win. It appears that urban Wagga Wagga has swung particularly severely against the Liberal Party, with only 21% of the vote in these booths so far.

7:21 – We now have a lot more votes, and it’s clear that the Liberal Party will poll under 30%, and quite possibly falling behind McGirr on the primary vote. We have five booths reporting 2PP figures, and Labor is managing a swing of only 8% which isn’t close to enough to win, so it seems like the Liberal Party will face more danger if McGirr can make it to the top two.

7:04 – I’ll be away for a minute, but we’ve just got our third 3PP booth, suggesting that Labor isn’t doing well enough to win if they end up facing off against the Liberals, but the primary vote swing against the Liberals remains around 28.7%, which is brutal. We still have nothing at all from urban Wagga Wagga.

7:00 – You think you’ve seen the worst anti-Liberal swings and then your expectations are exceeded. There’s a 36% primary vote swing against the Liberal Party at Lockhart Central. We still have no results from urban Wagga.

6:58 – The Liberal primary vote is looking a bit better after Pleasant Hills and Collingullie, where they only suffered swings around 21%, so they are currently projected to top the primary vote, but not much ahead of Labor or McGirr.

6:55 – Pleasant Hills looked better for the Liberal Party on the 2PP, which has pushed the 2PP swing to Labor under 10%. Again, samples are too small.

6:52 – 21% swing against the Liberal Party at Pleasant Hills, which is their best result so far. Worth noting that we have no results from the Wagga Wagga urban area yet.

6:48 – Booth #3 is Uranquinty. The Liberal primary vote dropped from 53.3% to 20.6% – a swing of over 30%. Joe McGirr polled almost 30%.

6:46 – We now have a two-party-preferred count from Talbingo and Labor has won the booth narrowly – 50 votes to 48, with 22 votes exhausting. This translates into a 15% swing, which would translate into a Labor win if this applied to the whole electorate (which you shouldn’t do). Of course we don’t know who will make the top two – if McGirr comes in the top two the 2PP count won’t matter.

6:40 – The second booth – another small one – is Yerong Creek. We’ve seen another swing of over 28%, with McGirr polling 26.5%. Far too early to say whether McGirr or Labor’s Hayes is a contender but the Liberals are doing very poorly. These two booths are both relatively good booths for the Liberal Party so the projected result pushes down the Liberal vote and lifts the Labor vote.

6:30 – We have one small booth (Talbingo) where there was a 28% swing against the Liberal candidate.

6:00 – Polls have just closed in the Wagga Wagga by-election. I’ll be updating this occasionally through the night.

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Podcast #7 – new PM, right-wing minor parties and Wagga

Ben is joined by Glenn Kefford from Macquarie University to discuss the new Liberal leadership, competition amongst right-wing minor parties and the Wagga Wagga by-election.

Read Glenn Kefford and Shaun Ratcliff’s analysis of nativist rhetoric at the Monkey Cage blog at the Washington Post.

You can subscribe using this RSS feed in your podcast app of choice, but should also be able to find this podcast by searching for “the Tally Room”. If you like the show please considering rating and reviewing us on iTunes.


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Podcast #6 – Liberal leadership spill and Lindsay

I was joined on Wednesday evening by Stewart Jackson and El Gibbs to discuss the Liberal leadership spill and the seat of Lindsay.

Our discussion of the Liberal leadership spill focused on some of the broader issues but was conducted before the rumours of a second spill strengthened later tonight. I expect our chat will be somewhat out of date in the next few days but most of it should still be interesting regardless of who comes out on top.

Read the Tally Room guide to Lindsay

Follow El Gibbs on Twitter

Stewart Jackson’s University of Sydney profile

You can subscribe using this RSS feed in your podcast app of choice, but should also be able to find this podcast by searching for “the Tally Room”. If you like the show please considering rating and reviewing us on iTunes.

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The seats you’ve been talking about

With the federal election guide now complete, I decided to check in on which seats have been attracting the most comments. Comment sections are now open for all 159 federal contests, and some of these pages have been quite active.

These are the seats with the most comments. There’s some obvious marginal seats but also a few surprises.

SeatComments
Hume49
Ryan44
Macnamara39
Lindsay38
Cooper36
Cook33
Brisbane28
Higgins27
Lilley23
Reid22
Casey20
Herbert20
Hughes20
Stirling19
Deakin15
Isaacs15
New England15
QLD Senate15

Overall (as of Saturday evening) 1153 comments had been posted on 140 different guides, with nineteen races yet to attract a comment.

If there’s a seat that interests you, please join in!

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Federal election guide finalised

For those who haven’t already noticed, I wanted to let you know that the guide to the next federal election is now finished and up on the website in total.

The guide includes profiles of all 151 House of Representatives races, and all eight Senate contests.

You can use these links to see a full list of lower house links:

Or you can use this map to navigate to any seat of interest. Click on the seat and a pop-up box will appear, including a link to the guide.

And here are links to the eight Senate contests:

Please let me know if there are any errors by commenting on the relevant post or by filling out the contact form on the front page of the guide. I will make some small changes as the election gets closer, and will occasionally do updates of candidate lists.

Meanwhile I am now posting one seat per day for the Victorian state election.

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Podcast #5 – Voter representation choices and Gilmore

I’m joined this week by Jill Sheppard (@jillesheppard) and Osmond Chiu (@redrabbleroz) to discuss research into what candidate attributes influence voters’ choices, and profile the marginal seat of Gilmore in southern NSW.

Links to things discussed in this episode:

You can subscribe using this RSS feed in your podcast app of choice, but should also be able to find this podcast by searching for “the Tally Room”. If you like the show please considering rating and reviewing us on iTunes.

 

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Podcast #4 – by-election results with William Bowe

Today’s episode is a slightly shorter interview with the Poll Bludger, William Bowe, where we run through the results of the by-elections and what they might mean.

You can subscribe using this RSS feed in your podcast app of choice, but should also be able to find this podcast by searching for “the Tally Room”. If you like the show please considering rating and reviewing us on iTunes.