3

NSW by-elections live (sort of)

7:28pm – Okay last update for a few hours. The Nationals have increased their lead on the Shooters after preferences in Murray – they now lead with 54.6% of the two-candidate-preferred vote, off 6000 votes. On primary votes they lead by 8.65% with 21% Labor votes dominating the preferences to be distributed. The Nationals look set to hold Cootamundra, where the Shooters trail Labor by one vote on the primary vote, and are on only 42.1% after preferences. It looks like Murray will be close, but the Nationals remain the favourites.

7:06pm – The Nationals and the Shooters are now exactly tied after preferences in Murray.

7:05pm – The Nationals are looking stronger in Cootamundra. With almost 10,000 votes reporting, the Nationals are on 48.4%. The Shooters are on 24.4%, just ahead of Labor on 21.6%. It’s possible Labor could come ahead of the Shooters, but either way it seems unlikely either could overtake the Nationals. Only about 2400 votes have been counted as two-candidate-preferred votes, but the Nationals are leading the Shooters with 57.3%.

7:02pm – It appears that both the Nationals and the Shooters are losing ground to Labor in Murray as more votes come in, but they should still stay in the top two. This probably helps the Shooters, as it means they need a smaller share of a bigger Labor vote to win.

6:59pm – Blacktown is predictably uninteresting, with Labor on 71.7% of the primary vote.

6:58pm – With over 7000 primary votes counted in Murray, the Nationals lead with 43.5% to 33.3% to the Shooters. We also have about 1500 votes distributed for two-candidate-preferred, and the Nationals are barely leading with 50.4%.

6:42pm – With over 1600 votes counted in Murray, the Nationals lead with 40.7% to the Shooters’ 36.2% and 16.5% for Labor. There’s been a swing of about 2% back to the Nationals in Cootamundra since the last figures, with about 2500 votes counted.

6:34pm – With almost 1500 votes counted in Cootamundra, the Nationals lead with 41.3% of the primary vote, followed by the Shooters on 30.7% and Labor on 23.2%. If those numbers held, there would be a good chance of a Shooters win, but it’s far too early to say.

6:30pm – So I will be out tonight and won’t be doing a full set of coverage but will jump in with some thoughts on early results over the next hour. Feel free to post comments below.

2

Read more about the upcoming by-elections

There are four by-elections coming up in the next six weeks in Australia’s two largest states.

I posted guides to two of these four by-elections last month, and the other two guides have now been posted. I’ve also added candidate lists for the first two.

By-elections will be held in the NSW seats of Blacktown, Cootamundra and Murray on October 14 after the resignations of their respective MPs. All three of these MPs were former ministers, and included one former party leader and one former deputy leader.

A by-election will also be held in the Victorian seat of Northcote on November 18 after the death of Labor MP Fiona Richardson in August.

Blacktown

Former NSW opposition leader John Robertson resigned from parliament in August 2017. Labor should easily retain this seat.

Cootamundra

Former Nationals minister Katrina Hodgkinson resigned from parliament in September 2017. The Nationals will likely retain this seat, but they will be challenged by the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers party.

Murray

Former Nationals deputy leader Adrian Piccoli resigned from parliament in September 2017. The Nationals would normally be strong favourites to hold Murray, but will face a strong challenge from the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers party.

Northcote

Labor’s Fiona Richardson held on to Northcote by a 6% margin against the Greens in 2014. The seat is one of the marginal Labor-Greens contests in the inner city, and the Greens have ambitions to gain the seat.

18

Breaking down the Inner West Council results

I’ve been paying quite a bit of attention to the Inner West Council results. It’s my former council area, but it’s also one of the most interesting councils. The Labor, Liberal and Greens parties all feature prominently, along with a wide variety of independents.

I’ve also written a piece for the Parramatta Sun about the Parramatta and Cumberland council results which I’ll share here when it’s posted.

The overall result in Inner West is not quite clear. Labor and Greens have each won at least five seats, along with progressive independent Pauline Lockie and two Liberals. Two other seats are in play.

Read the rest of this entry »

7

NSW council elections – results rolling in

After a week of counting, we are starting to get final ward results declared in some of the fifteen big councils I’ve been covering. I’m going to use this post to update as we get waves of results over the next few days.

Saturday evening

We now have final results from nearly all of the councils I have been analysing – with the exception of the council results in Wollongong, where the mayoral results have been prioritised.

The Bexley ward of Bayside council has finished, producing a final result on the council of 7 Labor, 5 Liberal and 3 independents.

All five wards of Canterbury-Bankstown council were counted since the end of Thursday, producing a result of nine Labor, five Liberal and one Green.

All five wards of Central Coast council have been finalised. The final result is six Labor, four Liberal and five independents. The closest race was in Budgewoi, where independent Greg Best beat the Liberal candidate by 430 votes.

The remaining four wards of Cumberland council have now been decided, and Labor has won a majority on the council. Labor has won nine seats, along with five Liberals and Our Local Community’s Paul Garrard in South Granville.

Labor won their majority with very narrow margins. The second Labor candidate won in Greystanes by a 15-vote margin, and the second Labor candidate won in Regents Park by a 110-vote margin.

74.8% of voters in Cumberland have voted in favour of continuing to fund the five local pools in the council area.

The remaining four wards of Georges River council have now been decided. Labor has won six seats, the Liberal Party has won five seats, and four others won seats. Independent councillor Konjarski defeated the second Labor candidate in Mortdale by only 162 votes.

The final result has been reported in Hornsby. Philip Ruddock has been elected as mayor with a majority of the primary vote. The council includes four Liberals, two Greens, two Labor and one independent. All three wards had a close result for their final seat. Labor defeated the Greens for the final seat in A ward by only 301 votes. Labor also defeated Christine Berman in B ward by only 99 votes, while independent Vince Del Gallego defeated the second Liberal candidate by 88 votes.

Thanks to that 88-vote margin, Ruddock will need to use his casting vote to give the Liberal Party a majority on the council.

All five wards in the Inner West have been decided. The council consists of five Labor, five Greens and two Liberals, along with three independents: Macri, Stamolis and Lockie. Labor candidate Linda Kelly fell 356 votes behind the Liberal candidate at the key point in the Balmain count, and Stamolis defeated the Liberal candidate by 210 votes on the final count. Conservative independent Vic Macri defeated progressive independent Victoria Pye by 162 votes in the Marrickville ward. Stamolis and Lockie have been generally more willing to work with the Greens, so Pye’s defeat leaves the Greens one vote short of a working majority.

All wards in Newcastle have been decided, none of them ending up particularly close. The council consists of six Labor (plus a Labor mayor, giving them a majority), four conservative independents, and one each for the Liberal Party and the Greens. Liberal councillor Brad Luke defeated Greens candidate Therese Doyle by 781 votes in Ward 2.

All wards in Northern Beaches have been finalised. Michael Regan’s Your Northern Beaches won six seats, with the Liberal Party on five seats, alongside one Greens councillor and three independents. The only close race was in Pittwater, where Your Northern Beaches defeated the Greens by 116 votes for the third seat.

The remaining four wards in Parramatta have been decided, producing a result of six Liberals, five Labor, one Green, two members of Our Local Community, along with independent Lorraine Wearne. There were three close ward results:

  • Our Local Community’s Michelle Garrard defeated the Local Independent Party candidate by 419 votes in Dundas.
  • Our Local Community’s Andrew Wilson defeated the Greens candidate by 246 votes in Dundas.
  • The Greens’ Phil Bradley defeated the Local Independent Party candidate by 135 votes.

The balance of power will be primarily held by Our Local Community, who have enough votes to form a majority with the Liberal Party. If they choose to work with Labor, they can form a majority with Wearne or Labor. It’s worth noting that Wearne and Wilson were elected on the same ticket in 2012, and worked with Michelle Garrard’s father Paul to form an alliance with the Liberal Party on the former council.

The four remaining wards on Randwick council have been finalised, producing a result of five Labor, four Liberal, three Greens, and three independents, including two on Noel D’Souza’s ticket.

A final result on Ryde council is four Labor, four Liberal, two Greens and two independents. Independent Jane Stott fell 308 votes short of defeating the second Liberal in the East ward, while independent Simon Zhou defeated the second Liberal in the West ward by 424 votes.

The Hills produced exactly the same result as in 2012: nine Liberals and three Labor. The Liberal Party also won the directly-elected mayor, which was only created for the first time at this election.

Independent lord mayor Gordon Bradbery was re-elected in Wollongong, with 54.2% of the vote after preferences, defeating Labor’s David Brown. We haven’t had any final council results, but all but one seat on the council is now clear. The council should include five Labor councillors, three Liberal councillors, two Greens and an ally of independent Bradbery. The last seat in Ward 2 is a close race between the second Labor candidate and the second Liberal candidate – Labor is leading by 452 votes before preferences are distributed. If Labor wins that seat they will end up with six out of thirteen seats, falling just short of a majority.

Thursday evening

Four of five wards have been declared in Bayside, including the only uncertain race. The Botany Bay and Rockdale wards each produced a result of one Labor, one Liberal and one independent (James Macdonald in Botany Bay and Andrew Tsounis in Rockdale). Mascot and Port Botany wards produced a result of two Labor and one Liberal. The second Labor candidate in Mascot defeated Greens candidate Greta Werner by only 119 votes. The Bexley ward has not yet been declared, but Labor, Liberal and independent Liz Barlow are all on track to win one seat each. This would produce a result of seven Labor, five Liberal and two independents.

Labor’s Glen Richardson defeated Our Local Community’s Eddy Sarkis by just fifteen votes in the Greystanes ward of Cumberland council, in addition to another Labor councillor and a Liberal councillor. This puts Labor on track for at least six, and possibly as many as nine seats, on the council.

Labor, Liberal and independent Nancy Liu were elected in the Hurstville ward of Georges River council. Labor has won at least five seats, with a chance of winning as many as seven seats, but the chance of either party forming a majority appears to have faded.

Labor has won two seats, and independent Allan Robinson one, in the fourth ward of Newcastle council. The mayoral election and the other three wards appear to be locked in, producing a result of seven Labor, four independents, one Green and one Liberal.

Independent Lorraine Wearne, Labor and Liberal have each won one seat in the Epping ward of Parramatta council. The council appears to be on track for six Liberals, five Labor councillors, Lorraine Wearne and three others yet to be decided. Two of those seats could go to the Greens, and two local parties are also in the race for those three seats.

Labor, Liberal and Anthony Andrews have each won a seat in the Central ward of Randwick council. The other four wards appear to be clear, leading to a result of five Labor, four Liberals, three Greens and three independents.

5

Swings and vote totals – NSW council elections

I’ve pulled together the primary vote totals as of this afternoon and calculated swings for each council and ward in urban NSW.

I’ve restricted my analysis to councils between Newcastle and Shellharbour, as councils outside this area are almost always dominated by independents.

Across this region, here were the total votes for the three large parties:

Party Votes % Swing
Labor 350,043 28.34 +5.62
Liberal 348,983 28.26 -3.54
Greens 124,154 10.05 +1.45
Others 411,937 33.35 -3.52

Labor and Liberal have polled pretty much exactly the same vote.

The Liberal swing would’ve been worse if not for the Northern Beaches council, where the Liberal Party ran for the first time in the former Pittwater and Warringah councils.

The Liberal Party polled almost 63% in the Hills, which is the only place where they polled a majority of the primary vote. Labor’s vote peaked at 49.75% in Burwood. The Greens polled 29.7% in the Inner West, as well as over 20% in Waverley and Woollahra.

Labor’s largest swing was in Ryde, where their vote increased by almost 14%. They also gained a swing of over 13% in the new Cumberland council, and swings of over 10% in both Wollongong and Newcastle.

The biggest drop in the Liberal vote came in Newcastle. The Liberal primary vote crashed from 29.5% to 15.6% after a number of the party’s lead candidates were disendorsed after nominations closed.

The Greens vote rose in most councils. The party gained a swing of 9.7% in Woollahra, 7.9% in Waverley and 6% in Hornsby. The Greens vote only rose slightly in the Inner West (arguably the Greens most important council), with swings ranging from 13% in Ashfield ward to -10% in Balmain.

I’ve uploaded the spreadsheet listing my estimates of vote totals and swings for each LGA and ward in the urban area and you can download it here.

I’ve also made this map where you can toggle between layers showing the swings for Labor, Liberal and Greens in this region (you can zoom out to see Newcastle and Wollongong/Shellharbour).


5

Run of the board – NSW council elections

In this post I will quickly summarise the state of play in the 14 most populous councils I have analysed (excluding Ku-ring-gai, where no tickets are standing across multiple wards). I’ll be back later today with some analysis of the swings across the councils and over the coming days I’ll do deeper analysis of some of the more interesting councils.

Labor has won a majority in Canterbury-Bankstown and Newcastle, with a chance in Cumberland, Georges River and Wollongong.

The Liberal Party has won a majority in the Hills, and a majority in Hornsby with the casting vote of new mayor Philip Ruddock.

Independents or Greens hold the balance of power in the remaining councils.

Bayside

Labor has won at least six seats, with the Liberal Party on five, along with three independents. Greens candidate Greta Werner is leading Labor for the final seat in Mascot. If Labor win that seat they will hold seven seats. Labor is likely to run the council, with the support of Greens and independents.

Canterbury-Bankstown

Labor has won at least eight seats, and is leading in a ninth seat. The Liberal Party has won five seats.

Greens candidate Linda Eisler is currently leading Our Local Community for the third seat in Canterbury ward, while Labor’s second candidate is leading Our Local Community for the third seat in Revesby. Regardless of these results, Labor will hold an absolute majority.

Central Coast

Labor has won six seats on the Central Coast, with the Liberal Party on at least four. Five independents are currently on track to win, but two of these independents could potentially lose to the Liberal Party. So the best case scenario for the Liberals would put them even with Labor, with independents holding the balance of power regardless.

Cumberland

Labor has a real shot at a majority here. They have won at least six seats, with chances of three more, while the Liberal Party has won four. Our Local Community’s Paul Garrard has won a seat in South Granville. The Liberal Party will likely win a fifth council seat in South Granville, where they lead former Auburn councillor Hicham Zraika.

Labor’s second candidate is leading in Greystanes ahead of Our Local Community, while the second Labor candidate is leading a wide field of candidates with a shot in Wentworthville. The Residents Action Group Cumberland is leading the second Labor candidate in Regents Park. If Labor wins two of these three contests, they will hold a majority.

Georges River

Labor has won at least six seats, with a chance of two more which would give them a majority. The Liberal Party has won five, along with at least one independent and the Kogarah Residents Association.

A second independent is leading the second Labor candidate in Mortdale, while the Greens candidate is leading the second Labor candidate in Peakhurst. If Labor pulls ahead in both these races they will win a majority.

Hornsby

Former federal Liberal minister Philip Ruddock should easily win the mayoralty, with 47% of the primary vote. His party will win at least four out of nine seats on the council. His vote, plus a mayoral casting vote, should allow the Liberals to run the council.

The Greens have won at least two seats, while they are leading Labor for a third seat. Two other Liberals have a chance, but are currently trailing a Labor candidate and an independent in the B and C wards respectively.

Inner West

Labor and the Greens have each won at least five seats.

The Liberal Party has also won two seats, in Ashfield and Leichhardt. Progressive independent Pauline Lockie has also won in Stanmore ward.

Two seats remain outstanding. #2 Labor candidate Linda Kelly has taken the lead ahead of independent John Stamolis and the Liberal candidate for the final seat in Balmain, while progressive independent Victoria Pye is narrowly leading conservative independent Victor Macri in Marrickville.

If Stamolis and Pye were to both win, it would allow Greens and independents to form a majority. If Kelly wins in Balmain, Labor would have a choice of working with Liberals or the progressive independents. If Stamolis and Macri win, Labor would need one of the independents and both Liberals to run the council. If Kelly and Macri win, Labor will have a wide range of options.

Newcastle

Labor has won a majority on Newcastle council. They will win the mayoralty, and second seats in Wards 3 and 4, giving them a total of seven out of 13 on the council.

The independents look set to win four seats. The Greens have won a seat in Ward 1. The Greens and Liberals are competing for the final seat in Ward 2. The Liberals have a substantial lead, but there is a large Labor surplus that could be enough to re-elect Greens councillor Therese Doyle.

Northern Beaches

No party will hold a majority here. Your Northern Beaches, led by former Warringah mayor Michael Regan, have won at least four seats and are leading in two others. The Liberal Party has won five seats. At least one other independent has won a seat.

The Greens are leading Labor for the final seat in Curl Curl. Your Northern Beaches are leading the Greens in Manly. The final two seats are a mess in Pittwater. Right now former mayor Alex McTaggart and Your Northern Beaches look set to win these two seats, but the Greens, and former Greens councillor (now independent) Selena Griffith are in with a shot.

Overall there are two blocks, and they will need to work with other independents and Greens to run the council.

Parramatta

Overall control of the council is still in play. The Liberal Party have won six seats, while Labor has won five. There are four wards where Greens and independents are competing for seats, and these races will determine the balance of power.

Michelle Garrard (daughter of former mayor Paul, who has been elected to Cumberland Council) is in the lead for the Our Local Community (OLC) party in Dundas, narrowly ahead of the Local Independent Party (LIP).

Independent Lorraine Wearne is in the lead in Epping, trailed by LIP and the Greens.

The Greens are leading for the final seat in Parramatta, ahead of LIP and OLC. Our Local Community is narrowly ahead of the Greens in Rosehill ward.

If the Greens win all three of the races they are contesting (very unlikely) they would be able to form a stable majority with Labor. The Our Local Community team has received preferences from the Liberals, which suggests something about how they might side on the next council. If they hold both of theirs, they’d be able to work with the Liberal Party. The Local Independent Party received preferences from Labor: if they did well then they could, together with the Greens, support a Labor-led majority.

Randwick

It appears that Randwick will elect five Labor, four Liberals, three Greens and three independents, including two on former mayor Noel D’Souza’s ticket. This is a shift away from the major parties, who each won six seats in 2012. A number of options will be available to form a majority.

Ryde

No party will win a majority in Ryde.

On current numbers, Labor and Liberal are winning four seats, along with two Greens and two independents. It is possible the second Liberal in Central ward could fall behind an independent, and it’s also possible the Greens could lose one of their two seats to the Liberals.

The Hills

No change in the Hills. The Liberal Party is on track to hold their nine seats, alongside three Labor. In addition, the Liberals will win the newly created directly-elected mayor.

Wollongong

There appears to be a close race between independent Gordon Bradbery (33.6%) and Labor’s David Brown 28.0%. The Liberal candidate is on 16.6% and the Greens are on 11%, so their preferences will be decisive.

There is one council seat in play – Labor is leading the Liberal for the last seat in Ward 2. If Labor wins both of these races they will hold a majority of 7 out of 13 seats.

8

Election night coverage – NSW council elections 2017

10:21pm – Let’s look at Bayside. Labor is on six seats (thanks to a massive vote in the Port Botany ward), the Liberal Party is on five, there are three independents, and one seat is still in play. Greens candidate Greta Werner has a solid lead over the second Labor candidate.

9:58pm – Labor has a chance of a majority in Georges River. They are currently leading for seven seats. Their second candidate in Peakhurst ward is in danger of falling behind Greens candidate Anne Wagstaff. If they can hold on in Peakhurst, and overtake the independent in Mortdale, they will win 8/15 seats.

9:35pm – Let’s talk about Wollongong. It looks reasonably clear that Labor has won five seats, the Liberal Party has won three, the Greens have won two, and sitting mayor Gordon Bradbery has won an ordinary council seat (which will go to his running mate if he wins the mayoralty). The fourth seat in Ward 2 is a close race between Labor and Liberal. If Labor win that seat, that will give them six out of twelve ordinary seats.

In terms of the mayoralty, Gordon Bradbery leads on 32%, followed by 28.1% for Labor’s David Brown, 16.7% for Liberal candidate John Dorahy and 12% for Greens candidate Mithra Cox. Liberal and Greens preferences will be crucial, and if they swing the mayoralty to Labor it could give the party a majority.

9:31pm – Labor is currently on track for a majority on Cumberland council but that’s on the basis of three close races. Labor is narrowly ahead of Our Local Community in Granville, and even more narrowly ahead of the same party in Greystanes, while Labor is the clear leader in a wide-open race for the final seat in Wentworthville. Wins in those three races would give them eight out of fifteen seats.

9:24pm – I’m calling a Labor majority for Newcastle council. On the basis of six and five booths respectively, Labor’s second candidate has a healthy lead in both Wards 3 and 4, which would give them seven seats including the lord mayor. The second Labor candidate is narrowly ahead of Greens councillor Therese Doyle in Ward 2.

9:19pm – Bayside council: current figures are 6 Labor, 5 Liberal, 3 independents and 1 Green, but Labor has a chance of winning a majority if their vote improves slightly in the Mascot and Rockdale wards.

9:09pm – The Greens are now leading for two seats on Parramatta council – with over 13% in Parramatta ward and 12.7% in Rosehill ward. At the moment this would produce a result of 7 Liberals, 5 Labor, 2 Greens and the last seat in Epping going either to Lorraine Wearne or the Local Independent Party, with that person effectively holding the balance of power.

9:02pm – In Balmain ward of the Inner West, John Stamolis has moved into third place. Labor’s vote is so high that their second candidate, immediate former councillor Linda Kelly, is in the hunt. Kelly is ranked fourth, with the Liberal candidate dropping to fifth.

8:48pm – Labor appears to be on track for a majority on Newcastle council. To achieve this they need to win a second seat in two wards, plus the mayoralty. They are well out in front for lord mayor, and are currently on track for a second seat in three out of four wards, which would give them eight out of 13 seats. I’ll wait for a few more booths, but it won’t be long before I’ll consider calling Newcastle.

8:42pm – On current figures in Georges River – Labor is on seven seats, Liberal 5, and three for independents.

8:31pm – The Cumberland administrator put up a question to the voters asking if they wished to maintain the council’s five pools – over 75% are voting Yes. Meanwhile Labor has a real shot at winning a majority on that council. They are currently leading for six seats and we have no real figures from Regents Park, so that would give them at least seven. They are also almost winning a second seat in Granville ward. A second Labor councillor in Granville or Regents Park (along with the second in Greystanes and Wentworthville where they are leading) would give them a majority.

8:24pm – The new Central Coast council looks set to be dominated by independents. On current primary votes the council would include 5 Labor, 3 Liberals and seven independents, although a small shift could see four of those independents lose, producing a result of 6 Labor, 5 Liberal, one Green and three independents.

8:12pm – The Greens and Labor will each win five seats on the Inner West council. It also seems likely that progressive independent Pauline Lockie will win a seat in Stanmore and that Liberal councillor Julie Passas will be re-elected in Ashfield. The other three seats will decide whether a bloc of progressive independents or Liberals will hold the balance of power. Currently left-leaning Victoria Pye is leading right-leaning Vic Macri in Marrickville, along with a big Greens surplus to help her along. The Liberal Party is over a quota in Leichhardt.

So the control of council will come down to Balmain, where the Greens are underperforming compared to their other wards, and progressive independent John Stamolis is just behind Liberal candidate Stephen Meates. Labor is polling very well so their preferences will be crucial in deciding that race.

8:08pm – Your Northern Beaches seem to have the edge on the Liberal Party in the Northern Beaches. On current figures the council will be 6 YNB, 5 LIB, 2 GRN and two other independents.

7:54pm – Looks like Labor has locked in a majority on Canterbury-Bankstown. They’re polling about 60% in Bankstown, Bass Hill and Roselands, giving them six seats, plus one each in Revesby and Roselands (although they have a chance of a ninth seat in Roselands).

7:44pm – I’m finding the Marrickville ward of Inner West interesting. Former independent mayor Victor Macri is trailing in a distant fourth behind newcomer progressive independent Victoria Pye – 20.7% to 12%. Meanwhile the Greens’ Col Hesse has a substantial surplus with Labor’s Sam Iskandar 23.5% – the Greens’ surplus will improve Pye’s position. If Pye defeats Macri it will strengthen the chance of the Greens forming a governing majority, rather than Labor.

7:41pm – Gordon Bradbery is now leading with 31.8%, ahead of Labor’s David Brown on 26.3%, Liberal John Dorahy on 18.6% and Greens Mithra Cox on 11.5%.

7:19pm – We’re getting small numbers of results from the Inner West, but I won’t make predictions yet.

7:18pm – Things are much less clear in Wollongong. Sitting lord mayor Gordon Bradbery (an independent) is in third place on 18.7% off two booths, trailing the Labor and Liberal candidates.

7:15pm – Labor lord mayor Nuatali Nelmes is looking good to win re-election in Newcastle – she’s on 43% off five booths, with her two closest rivals on about 18%.

7:10pm – Very small vote in all five wards in Northern Beaches currently has Your Northern Beaches on track for 6 seats, Liberal 5, Greens 2, and two other independents. The Liberals look unlikely to be able to stitch together a majority.

6:40pm – Polls have closed forty minutes in councils across New South Wales. Join me as I track the results. We should start to see some data after 7pm.

0

NSW council election day

polls are open today in a bunch of councils across NSW – the new amalgamated councils and those who survived amalgamation attempts.

I’ll be covering the results tonight from 6:30pm. Today I’ll be driving around to some of the polling booths in Sydney, so check out my Twitter account (@thetallyroom) for anecdotes and photos.

I’ll also be on Backchat on FBI radio at 11:15 discussing the elections.

In the meantime, my guides for the 15 most populous councils are still open, and some of them have lively comments sections!

 

3

NSW by-elections in Blacktown and Cootamundra

We’re due for two state by-elections in New South Wales later this year, and I’ve just finished guides for both electorates, which you can read now.

Blacktown

Former NSW opposition leader John Robertson has announced plans to resign. Labor should easily retain this seat.

Cootamundra

Former Nationals minister Katrina Hodgkinson announced plans to resign in late July. The Nationals will likely retain this seat, but they will be challenged by the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers party.

5

Key seats in the Queensland election

The 2015 Queensland election was very close, with neither party winning a majority of seats. Labor is estimated to hold 48 seats, while the LNP holds 42 seats. There are two Katter’s Australian Party seat, and one independent seat. 47 seats are needed for a majority.

Recent polling has been very close, with both Labor and LNP winning polls. This suggests that either side has the potential to gain seats, and lose other seats. In addition there are numerous seats where other parties could be a factor: independents, the Greens, One Nation and Katter’s Australian Party.

Labor-LNP marginals

There are nineteen Labor seats with a margin against the LNP under 6%.

There are four Labor seats on the north side of Brisbane with margins of less than 6%: from the city centre northward these are McConnel, Cooper, Ferny Grove and Pine Rivers.

There are also seven marginal Labor seats in southern Brisbane and Logan: Mount Ommaney, Miller, Greenslopes, Mansfield, Stretton, Springwood and Logan.

In central Queensland, heading north, the Labor marginal seats are Maryborough, Bundaberg, Keppel and Mirani.

Labor has five marginal seats in north Queensland: three around Townsville (Burdekin, Townsville and Mundingburra) and the Cairns-area seat of Barron River.

LNP-Labor marginals

There are eighteen LNP seats with a margin against Labor under 6%.

There are four LNP marginal seats in the City of Brisbane: Aspley, Chatsworth, Everton and Maiwar.

There are six marginal LNP seats on the Gold Coast: Bonney, Burleigh, Coomera, Currumbin, Gaven and Theodore.

The LNP is defending two seats in the Redland council area: (Oodgeroo and Redlands) and three on the Sunshine Coast (Caloundra, Glass House and Pumicestone).

There are three LNP marginal seats vulnerable to Labor further afield: Hinchinbrook, Whitsunday and Toowoomba North.

Katter’s Australian Party seats

Katter’s Australian Party holds two seats. Traeger is very safe, but the seat of Hill will be in play against the LNP.

Independent seats

Sitting independent MP Peter Wellington is retiring in Nicklin, and that seat is not likely to be in play. There are two sitting independent MPs who won seats in 2015 as Labor candidates, and they will be facing an uphill battle to win, against either Labor or the LNP. These two seats are Cairns and Cook, both in far north Queensland.

One Nation seats

Since One Nation were not a major player in the 2015 state election, it is not simple to determine where One Nation might stand a chance. I’ve considered their chances in a previous post.

One Nation state leader Steve Dickson holds the Sunshine Coast seat of Buderim, which he won in 2015 as an LNP candidate. One Nation also came close to winning the seat of Lockyer in 2015, and did well in that area at the 2016 federal election.

Some other prospects for the party include the Labor seats of Mirani, Maryborough and Burdekin, and the LNP seats of Hinchinbrook, Callide, Gregory, Burnett and Nanango.

Greens seats

The Greens do not hold any seats in Queensland but there are a small number of seats which have strong Greens votes and could potentially be vulnerable to the party.

There are three seats in inner Brisbane where the party has polled well. The party has previously targetted or held the two seats merged to make up Maiwar, and currently holds the Brisbane City ward which overlaps with South Brisbane, and has also done well in McConnel.

The Greens came second in Noosa in 2015, and generally do well in this area at state elections.