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Seat #11: Lara

Lara1-2PPLara is a safe Labor seat covering the northern suburbs of Geelong, and rural parts of the City of Greater Geelong to the north of the city.

Lara has been held since 2006 by Labor MP John Eren, who had previously held an upper house seat in the Geelong area from 2002 to 2006.

John Eren holds the seat by a 13.8% margin.

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Vasse and Casuarina – belated results

Apologies for my absence tonight, I was busy and unable to cover the results in the two by-elections held today: Casuarina in the Northern Territory, and Vasse in Western Australia.

Polls closed just over two hours ago in Vasse, and it appears that the Liberal Party has narrowly held on against the Nationals after significant swings away from the Liberal Party.

We have all primary and two-candidate-preferred votes in, except for those cast early in person.

The Liberal Party is sitting on 52.7% of the two-candidate-preferred vote, up against the Nationals. For most of the count, we had no 2CP figures due to the Nationals and the Greens both in with a chance of coming second, but most of the 2CP vote came in a short time ago after it became clear that the Nationals had outpolled the Greens. In 2013, the Liberal Party won 71.2% of the two-party-preferred vote against Labor.

The Liberal Party has suffered a swing of 14% on primary votes, dropping from 57.3% to 43.3%. The Nationals vote increased from 7.3% to 27.7%. The Greens vote also increased from 10% to 19.3%. Labor did not run in the by-election, and an independent who polled 11% in 2013 also did not run, freeing up over 20% of the vote to be picked up by other candidates.

Swings against the Liberal Party by booth varied wildly. The Liberal Party vote increased by 9% at Rosa Brook, and otherwise the swing against the Liberal Party ranged from 1.4% in Dunsborough to 26.5% in Yoongarillup.

I’ll return tomorrow morning with booth maps showing the results of the Vasse by-election.

In the NT Legislative Assembly electorate of Casuarina, the ALP suffered a swing but held on. Northern Territory seats are very small, and the results in Casuarina were only broken down into two polling places, as well as prepoll and postal votes. The Country Liberal Party narrowly won the postal votes (by two votes) and the prepoll votes (by three votes). Labor won 55% in Nakara and 56.9% in Tiwi, for an overall Labor margin of 55.1%. This is a swing of 4.2% to the Country Liberal Party. I probably won’t return to any more coverage of Casuarina.

Seat #10: Dandenong

Dandenong1-2PPDandenong is a safe Labor seat in south-eastern Melbourne, including Dandenong, Dandenong South, Doveton and Eumemmerring and parts of Dandenong North, Endeavour Hills, Noble Park and Noble Park South.

The seat has a margin of 14% for the ALP, and has been held since 1992 by John Pandazopoulos. He’ll be retiring at the upcoming election.

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Seat #9: St Albans

StAlbans1-2PPSt Albans is a safe Labor seat covers Albion, Kealba, Keilor Downs, St Albans and Sunshine North in the western suburbs of Melbourne.

St Albans is a newly drawn seat, taking in major parts of Derrimut as well as smaller parts of Footscray, Keilor, Kororoit and Niddrie.

The sitting member for Derrimut, Telmo Languiller, is running for Tarneit. The Labor candidate, former Brimbank mayor Natalie Suleyman, should easily win the seat, which has a 14% Labor margin.

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Seat #8: Footscray

Footscray1-2PPFootscray is a safe Labor seat covering Braybrook, Footscray, Maidstone, Maribyrnong, Tottenham and West Footscray in western Melbourne.

Footscray has been held by the ALP’s Marsha Thomson since 2006. Thomson holds the seat by a 16% margin. The seat has been held by Labor continuously since 1927.

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