New dataset – NSW 2011

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I’ve added a new dataset to my data repository, as an exclusive for website donors, with the results of the 2011 NSW state election.

This dataset covers both the lower house and upper house, including the full list of polling places (with latitudes, longitudes and addresses) and the full list of candidates, as well as voting figures at the booth and seat level.

The data repository now contains full datasets from every state election since 2011, plus a few older ones. Part of the data repository is free for everyone to access (including the 2015 NSW election), and if you sign up as a donor via Patreon you can get access to the full set, including this new dataset.

The next few months will be busy for this website, so everyone who can chip in is very much appreciated.

Podcast #18 – Rural seats and election funding in NSW

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Ben was joined by Macquarie University’s Ben Spies-Butcher and the Guardian’s Gabrielle Chan to discuss the rural contest in the NSW state election and the impact of the recent High Court decision on election funding laws.

We discussed Gabi’s new book Rusted Off.

Thanks to 2SER radio in Sydney for the use of their studio.

You can subscribe to this podcast using this RSS feed in your podcast app of choice, but should also be able to find this podcast by searching for “the Tally Room”. If you like the show please considering rating and reviewing us on iTunes.

Candidate list update – NSW and federal

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We’re now less than five weeks away from the NSW state election, and I have just finished updating the candidate lists for my NSW state election guide, as well as updating the equivalent lists on my federal election guide.

As usual I have shared these lists of candidates as Google spreadsheets, which you can view here:

Thanks to Nick Casmirri, who has done a great deal of research work to find candidates, as well as everyone who has posted a comment on a seat guide.

These lists are of course works in progress, with candidates continuing to reveal themselves up until nominations close on March 6.

374 candidates have been announced for the NSW state election, which is an average of just over 4 candidates per seat. There are 8 announced candidates in Penrith, and there are only two announced candidates in nine seats.

Labor has announced candidates in ninety seats, the Greens in 81 seats, there are a total of 80 coalition candidates, and the Animal Justice Party are running 42. There are also 18 Shooters, Fishers and Farmers candidates and One Nation and the Christian Democratic Party have each announced nine candidates.

ACT redistribution – submissions open

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The redistribution of ACT Legislative Assembly boundaries for the 2020 election has now commenced, with submissions opening last Monday and open until Monday 4 March.

The electoral map was radically drawn prior to the 2016 election, with the Assembly expanding from 17 to 25 seats, and with the number of electorates increasing from three to five.

This redistribution is likely to be less radical, but there have been some growing differences between electorates which will require some shifts in boundaries, increasing the influence of the northern suburbs of Canberra.

Elections ACT has calculated the projected population in each suburb as of 31 August 2018, and projected a likely population as of 17 October 2020 (the next election date). A quota has been calculated as one-fifth of the current population and the projected population, and this next table shows how much of a quota each current electorate makes up. Electorates are sorted from north to south.

ElectorateAreaCurrent quotaProjected quota
YerrabiGungahlin and Belconnen1.081.15
GinninderraBelconnen0.940.92
KurrajongCentral Canberra1.041.03
MurrumbidgeeWoden, Weston Creek, Tuggeranong1.011.01
BrindabellaTuggeranong0.930.89

Electorates don’t have to perfectly fit within quotas: electorates need to be within 10% of the current quota and 5% of the projected quota.

Podcast #17 – Independents and NSW election

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Ben is joined by ABC election analyst Antony Green and the ANU’s Jill Sheppard in the first episode of 2019 to discuss the New South Wales state election – in particular the rule of optional preferential voting and the increasing popularity of pre-poll voting – as well as the growing number of independents running in federal Liberal seats.

There was a problem with the original audio file which appeared to be only 8 minutes long. The full version is 51 minutes. The link below has now been updated and you should be able to download the corrected version from your podcast app very soon.

You can subscribe to this podcast using this RSS feed in your podcast app of choice, but should also be able to find this podcast by searching for “the Tally Room”. If you like the show please considering rating and reviewing us on iTunes.

Two by-elections in South Australia

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There will be two by-elections for the safe Labor seats of Cheltenham and Enfield on February 9.

I have prepared guides for both of these seats which are now open for your comments.

I don’t expect any surprise result in either seat. The Liberal Party is not standing.

NSW election – final seat guide and candidate list

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The state election in New South Wales is just over two months away, and my complete guide to the election is now published here.

The guide includes profiles of all 93 seats, as well as a guide to the Legislative Council election.

I can now also provide a list of every candidate for the state election that I know of. Thanks to Nick Casmirri for doing much of the work finding candidates.

The list will continue to expand until nominations close in early March. There are still a number of sitting MPs who haven’t made it entirely clear if they are running for re-election, but probably are.

So far we have identified 84 Labor candidates, 46 Greens candidates and a combined total of 54 candidates for the Coalition. The Shooters, Fishers and Farmers, who generally did not run candidates for lower house seats until by-elections in the current term, have announced 18 candidates.

You can view the candidate list here. You can also view the latest version of the federal election candidates list.

I will periodically update the candidate lists on each seat guide. If there is a missing candidate, or a website address for a candidate, please email it to me or post it in the comments and it will be updated the next time I clear the backlog.

You can also browse through this map and click on any seat to see the margin and a link to that seat’s profile.

Oakeshott is back in Cowper

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Former independent MP Rob Oakeshott announced yesterday that he will be running for the federal seat of Cowper at this year’s election.

In this post I will run through some of the dynamics of that electorate which will be critical to that contest.

I’ll be using a lot of the work I have done on my guide to the seat of Cowper, which is worth a look.

Can McGowan hand over Indi?

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It was reported yesterday that independent MP Cathy McGowan will retire from her seat of Indi at this year’s federal election.

She will be hoping to be succeeded by rural health researcher Helen Haines, who has been endorsed by Voices for Indi, the community group who supported McGowan in winning Indi off the Liberal Party’s Sophie Mirabella in 2013.

There is very little history of independent MPs successfully handing over their seat to a fellow independent, with so much of the appeal of an independent being locked up in that individual. But there are some reasons to think this could be an exception.

Victoria 2018 – minor party votes mapped

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This is my last post for 2018, one final set of Victorian election maps. I’ll be back in the new year with more coverage of the New South Wales and federal elections.

Today I’m looking at the distribution of the vote for two of the larger minor parties. Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party and the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers both polled over 3%, with concentrations in certain regions that were quite high for a minor party.