Podcast #13 – One year since the marriage survey

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Today is one year since the announcement of the result in the marriage law postal survey, and I have a special podcast episode focusing on that process.

I interviewed Simon Copland and Dr Liz Allen on Tuesday at a conference about the anniversary at the ANU.

You can subscribe to this podcast using this RSS feed in your podcast app of choice, but should also be able to find this podcast by searching for “the Tally Room”. If you like the show please considering rating and reviewing us on iTunes.

Victoria 2018 – the preference cabal is back

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The group voting tickets were released on Sunday, showing how each party will direct its preferences for votes cast above-the-line in each region for the Victorian Legislative Council.

For those still catching up, this is basically the same system used for the Senate up to 2013 (although it is easier to cast a formal below-the-line vote if you wish to opt out). The upper house consists of forty members, with five elected for each of the eight regions.

There are eighteen parties running in every region, with only a handful of candidates standing outside of these groups.

Of these eighteen parties, it appears that fourteen are participating in some way in a preference arrangement to deny close races to the major parties or the Greens. There isn’t perfect discipline amongst these fourteen parties, but in each region there is at least one party which is getting very favourable preferences from pretty much every other party in the group, which will give them a good chance to win if they can stay in the race long enough to start accumulating preferences. In this post I’ll run through which parties appear to be the preferred winners in each region.

Victorian candidates – final update

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Nominations closed today for the Victorian state election. In this post I’ll run through the numbers on how many people are running, and from what parties, and where.

Check out this Google spreadsheet with a list of all 507 lower house candidates.

Thanks to Nick Casmirri for doing a lot of research in pulling together information about these candidates.

Victorian nominations – Liberals sit out inner city?

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Nominations will close tomorrow for registered political parties running in the Victorian state election, with independents having until Friday to nominate.

The Liberal Party today submitted their bulk nominations, but failed to nominate a candidate for the inner city seats of Brunswick, Melbourne, Northcote and Richmond – all of which are marginal Labor-Greens contests. Two are held by Labor, and two are held by the Greens.

This is a strange decision, not seen by a major party in decades. It will likely cost the party money and could hurt their upper house campaign, if the Liberals don’t change their mind in the next 18 hours.

Podcast #12 – Tasmanian council elections

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Kevin Bonham and I have just put together a bonus episode to discuss the Tasmanian council elections, focusing on the results of the Hobart City Council race and the features of the Tasmanian council voting system.

Read Kevin’s live blog from the Tasmanian council elections count

You can subscribe using this RSS feed in your podcast app of choice, but should also be able to find this podcast by searching for “the Tally Room”. If you like the show please considering rating and reviewing us on iTunes.

Podcast #11 – Greens seats in Victoria

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In this episode, I talk to El Gibbs and Paddy Manning about the Victorian election, with a particular focus on inner-city Greens contests.

This was the first episode recorded at the studios of 2SER radio in Sydney. Thanks to them for the help with the show.

You can subscribe using this RSS feed in your podcast app of choice, but should also be able to find this podcast by searching for “the Tally Room”. If you like the show please considering rating and reviewing us on iTunes.

Victoria and federal candidates update

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Now that we’re past Wentworth, I wanted to revisit the election guides I have posted for the federal and Victorian state elections.

There are a whole bunch of extra candidates on both guides (particularly Victoria), and I have also listed all the candidates in spreadsheets if you are interested.

Particular thanks to Nick Casmirri who has helped track down a lot of extra candidates.

If you identify a candidate who’s not on the list, you can comment on the relevant seat guide or send me a message – I grab every one of these, even if I don’t always get the page updated for a few days.

Here are the spreadsheets for the two candidate lists:

So far we have 344 candidates for the Victorian state election. This includes Labor candidates in all but five seats, and Coalition candidates in all but six. There’s also 67 Greens candidates. I expect Labor, the Coalition and the Greens to all run candidates in every seat. There’s also 24 Animal Justice candidates, 14 Victorian Socialists and 13 DLP candidates.

Nominations for the Victorian state election close next Thursday, 9 November, so I will do a final update of the candidate list the following weekend and do some final analysis on who is running around that time.

And in other news, don’t forget to check out the guide to the New South Wales state election, which is being posted one seat at a time. Today’s seat of the day is Seven Hills.

How marriage equality was won – the demographics of yes and no

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I will be giving a talk at a conference on the one-year anniversary of the marriage law postal survey at ANU in November, and for this talk I’ve put together a paper analysing the strongest demographic correlations which can help explain who voted which way in the marriage survey.

I’ve decided to put it up as a blog post, but it is a bit longer than my usual content. It includes a series of tables and charts showing how the yes vote correlates with various demographic data.

Kerryn Phelps and council countbacks

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A story in the Sydney Morning Herald this morning discussed how Kerryn Phelps would keep up doing both her jobs as a City of Sydney councillor and federal MP if (as expected) she comes out the winner in last weekend’s by-election.

The article explores some interesting perspectives about the workload (hard to do if you’re diligent) and the potential constitutional issues (unlikely to be a problem, assuming the High Court judges NSW councillors as similar to Tasmanian councillors) but missed another angle: the impact on local electors in the City of Sydney of a by-election if Phelps were to resign.

If Kerryn Phelps were to resign from the City of Sydney, it would trigger a by-election across the entire City. At the 2016 election, almost 85,000 people cast ballots, and over 140,000 were enrolled. This is more than have voted in the Wentworth by-election. It would presumably be costly and have a big impact.

Podcast #10 – Wentworth results wrap-up

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Ben talked to Peter Brent in a mini-episode about yesterday’s Wentworth by-election.

Some links if you want to read more about the by-election:

You can subscribe using this RSS feed in your podcast app of choice, but should also be able to find this podcast by searching for “the Tally Room”. If you like the show please considering rating and reviewing us on iTunes.