Murray-Wellington – WA 2017

LIB 12.0%

Incumbent MP
Murray Cowper, since 2008. Previously Member for Murray 2005-2008.

Geography
Southern fringe of Perth. Murray-Wellington covers rural areas between Mandurah and Bunbury.

The district covers a large area including all of Harvey Shire and most of Murray and Waroona Shires. The seat borders the City of Mandurah at the northwestern corner of the seat.

Redistribution
No change.

History
The district of Murray-Wellington has existed since 1890. The seat was originally named “Murray”, and has changed names back and forth between “Murray” and “Murray-Wellington” seven times since 1911. Most recently, Murray-Wellington was renamed Murray in 2005 and restored to its current name in 2008.

The seat has been held by the Liberal Party and its predecessors for over a century with only one exception.

John Bradshaw won the seat for the Liberal Party in 1983. In 1989, a redistribution saw Murray-Wellington split into the separate seats of Murray and Wellington, and Bradshaw moved to Wellington.

Keith Read won the seat of Murray for the ALP in 1989, before losing to the Liberal Party’s Arthur Marshall in 1993. Marshall moved to the seat of Dawesville in 1996, and held it until his retirement in 2005.

In 1996, Bradshaw moved back to Murray-Wellington, and held it until his retirement in 2005.

Murray Cowper won Murray in 2005. Cowper was elected to the renamed seat of Murray-Wellington in 2008, and he was re-elected in 2013.

Candidates

Assessment
Murray-Wellington is reasonably safe for the Liberal Party. While Labor could have a chance at gaining the seat in 2017, they would be likely to win a comfortable majority in the Assembly if they’re on track to win Murray-Wellington.

2013 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Murray Cowper Liberal 10,044 49.9 +4.9
David Scaife Labor 5,674 28.2 -1.4
Michael Rose Nationals 2,280 11.3 +3.3
Deni Fuller Greens 1,134 5.6 -1.2
Laurie Rankin Family First 621 3.1 -3.1
Norm Heslington Independent 383 1.9 +1.9
Informal 1,507 7.0

2013 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Murray Cowper Liberal 12,476 62.0 +3.2
David Scaife Labor 7,653 38.0 -3.2

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into three parts: central, north and south.

 

The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 59.7% in the centre to 63% in the south.

The Nationals came third, with around 14% in the centre and south, and 7% in the north.

Voter group NAT % LIB 2PP % Total votes % of votes
South 14.3 63.1 6,324 31.4
North 7.4 61.5 5,211 25.9
Central 14.0 59.7 3,954 19.6
Other votes 9.9 62.3 3,375 16.8
Pre-poll 7.9 64.4 1,272 6.3

Election results in Murray-Wellington at the 2013 WA state election
Click on the ‘visible layers’ box to toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Nationals primary votes.

4 COMMENTS

  1. Sorry, but I’ve lived here for 17 years, never seen Murray Cowper, never heard from him apart from election time , never talked to him or anyone he deals with.
    In contrast I’ve both seen, talked to and understand the ideals of David Templeman from the next electorate.
    As far as I’m concerned , as a traditional conservative voter, Murray Cowper is a non entity.
    If you ain’t there before the election I ain’t votin for you buddy!!!

  2. I’ll admit, I didn’t see that one coming. I’m pretty happy to have seen Kingsley as a chance to fall, but I discounted M-W as being too rural to fall

    Then again, I didn’t see a massive swing to Labor in Collie-Preston either.

  3. Murray-Wellington was the shock of the election. (The ABC has the seat in doubt, but this seems cautious with the current count putting Labor above 51%.)

    But perhaps it should not have been. Murray Cowper prevailed only very narrowly when first elected in 2005, contesting what had been a notional Labor electorate. Labor also held the seat for a term in the early 90s.

  4. And maybe Robyn Clarke didnt expect to get the job as she never showed her face in Australind. Harveys a big population now and deserves more respect from pollys.

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