Kororoit – Victoria 2022

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  1. New Labor candidate is Luba Grigorovitch, of the Public Transport Union & ‘industrial Left’ who lost out to Jill Hennessy for Altona in 2008.

  2. Will be an interesting test of Dan Andrew’s popularity. Both this seat and Narre Warren North are seats that are reported to be hostile for Dan Andrews and the lockdowns.

  3. That was 3 weeks before the election, not 6 months which would be the case now. Of course that depends how long the Speaker takes to issue the writ.

  4. It would interesting to see the by-election here as it would give an idea how the state government is fairing plus the electorate is next door to Melton which is marginal so it would give an indication if labor is in trouble here.

  5. There is a chance however that the anti-Andrews sentiment is rather exaggerated. I have found these people tend to be anti-vax and a lot of these people moved interstate after lockdowns so that might slightly weaken the threat. Most of these people are not traditional ALP voters given many on their social media supported the far-right parties’ pre-covid. I believe these groups are mainly casual workers of either bogan or Eastern European descent with a lack of educational attainment but these people are always active in the neighborhood (as noticed from the streets) unlike 9-5 workers (who would likely still vote Labor) who live in the neighborhood but are not active within their local community. The belive this anti-Andrews bloc is around 10% of the western suburbs

  6. Its true Marh,
    Most of the anti Dan comments are either from NSW, OLD or WA either way I think it would be interesting to see well the government is fairing.

  7. It will be interesting. The ALP will get a swing against it at the by-election (as the government party generally does) plus the Anti-Dan swing, which could be huge, or could be a fizzer. Swing may transfer to the yellowshirts rather than Libs anyway.

    Being so close before the election, Vic Labor and VicLibs will be happy to have a chance to test the waters and wargame for November…

  8. Although I wouldn’t never read to much into a by-election, Dan seems to be still popular in the eastern Melbourne which what matter for the marginal electorates

  9. The Liberals have labelled the outer Western suburbs as a target region so this by-election could present them an opportunity.

  10. Based on current and/or historic margin, I would think Melton, Sunbury and Point Cook are more likely targets than this seat.

  11. Melton’s margin last time was deceptive – they had a weirdly broad spread across independents, making for a messy count.

  12. As much as I dislike Daniel Andrews especially after his attack on free speech. This will be a Labor hold outside of Les Twentyman (Independent) or some other strong independent running. When the sitting member was first elected in 2008 there was an independent challenge that came 3rd place in the primaries but managed to beat the Liberals for the final count due to preferences from smaller parties.

    Les Twentyman Nevertheless lost by 59-41 but it was much closer than the colossal margin it has been in more recent elections.

  13. Liberals won’t win any by-election here, but it might still be interesting to see what sort of swing occurs.

    I remember the Altona by-election where Labor won comfortably, but with a big swing against them. In hindsight, this could be seen as an early sign of the solid swing against Labor to come in the 2010 general election.

  14. The Liberals are unlikely to regain the seats lost in 2018 in Eastern Melbourne. In fact even more seats could fall like Croydon, Glen Waverley, Caulfield, Brighton, Sandringham, Warrandyte and Bulleen. What the Libs can bank on is the swing against Labor in the outer suburban growth corridors. The looming Kororoit by-election will be a test for both Guy and Andrews since its the kind of demographic that swung to the Libs in the federal election. Of course, what could happen is a Dai Le style independent wins this on the back of a swing to the Libs and Lib preferences flowing. This could be something that is plausible since there are plenty of seats in the West side with large Indian, African and Vietnamese communities, none of which are particularly well represented in parliament.


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