Cranbourne – Victoria 2014

ALP 1.1%

Incumbent MP
Jude Perera, since 2002.

Geography
Southern Melbourne. Cranbourne covers the suburbs of Cranbourne, Cranbourne East, Cranbourne North, Cranbourne West, Botanic Ridge, Junction Village and parts of Clyde, Clyde North, Devon Meadows, Lynbrook and Lyndhurst. The entire electorate is contained within the City of Casey.

Map of Cranbourne's 2010 and 2014 boundaries. 2010 boundaries marked as red lines, 2014 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.
Map of Cranbourne’s 2010 and 2014 boundaries. 2010 boundaries marked as red lines, 2014 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.

Redistribution
Cranbourne’s boundaries were changed significantly. The electorate previously covered parts of the City of Frankston, including Carrum Downs, Frankston North, Skye and Sandhurst. A majority of this area was shifted into Carrum, and other parts were transferred to Frankston and Hastings.

In exchange, Cranbourne gained parts of Cranbourne South and Devon Meadows from Hastings on its southern boundary, and parts of Cranbourne North, Lynbrook and Lyndhurst from Lyndhurst and Narre Warren South on its northern boundary. These changes reduced the ALP margin from 1.8% to 1.1%.

History
Cranbourne was first created as an electoral district for the 1992 election. It was first won in 1992 by the Liberal Party’s Gary Rowe. He was re-elected in 1996 and 1999.

Prior to the 2002  election, the redistribution redraw the boundaries to make it much more favourable to the ALP. The margin shifted from 5.7% for the Liberal Party to 1.6% for the ALP. The ALP’s Jude Perera gained a 9.2% swing, winning the seat off Rowe.

Perera was re-elected in 2006, gaining a slight swing to increase his margin from 10.8% to 11.3%. Perera was re-elected in 2010, but saw his margin collapse to 1.8%.

Candidates

  1. Jonathan Willie Eli (Rise Up Australia)
  2. Jude Perera (Labor)
  3. Geoff Ablett (Liberal)
  4. Rosemary Blake (Independent)
  5. Raj Nayak (Greens)
  6. Pamela Keenan (Family First)
  7. Laith Graham (Sex Party)
  8. Rania Michael (Australian Christians)

Assessment
Cranbourne is a very marginal electorate, but Perera should have no trouble retaining the seat if there is a statewide swing to Labor.

2010 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Jude Perera Labor 17,803 42.49 -12.61 42.21
Geoff Ablett Liberal 16,565 39.53 +6.5 39.99
Hilary Bray Greens 3,475 8.29 +2.58 7.06
Steve Funke Family First 1,410 3.36 -2.80 3.99
Luke O’Connor Democratic Labor 1,358 3.24 +3.24 3.21
Amanda Stapledon Independent 921 2.20 +2.2 1.81
Bob Halsall Independent 372 0.89 +0.89 0.62
Sex Party 0.19
Country Alliance 0.14
Other independents 0.79

2010 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Jude Perera Labor 21,727 51.85 -9.44 51.10
Geoff Ablett Liberal 20,177 48.15 +9.44 48.90
Polling places at the 2010 Victorian state election. Central in green, North in orange, South in blue. Click to enlarge.
Polling places at the 2010 Victorian state election. Central in green, North in orange, South in blue. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Cranbourne have been divided into central, north and south.

The ALP won majorities in Central and North. The Liberal Party won a smaller 51.5% majority in the south.

Voter group GRN % ALP 2PP % Total % of votes
North 6.01 55.86 7,915 25.68
South 6.71 48.46 5,113 16.59
Central 8.07 54.75 4,657 15.11
Other votes 7.47 48.62 13,140 42.63
Two-party-preferred votes at the 2010 Victorian state election.
Two-party-preferred votes at the 2010 Victorian state election.