LNP 1.2%
Incumbent MP
No sitting MP.
Geography
Caboolture covers north-western parts of the Moreton Bay council area, on the outer fringe of the Brisbane urban area and inland from the southern end of the Sunshine Coast. The electorate covers Caboolture, Elimbah, Wamuran, Woodford, Delaney Creek and Mount Mee.
Redistribution
Caboolture is a new electorate, created out of parts of the Glass House, Morayfield and Pumicestone electorates. The vast majority of the land mass was previously in Glass House but most of this area has a small population. The Caboolture area was previously split between Pumicestone and Morayfield. The new seat has a notional two-party-preferred margin of 1.2%.
History
The seat of Caboolture was newly created for the 2028 election, but a seat of the same name previously existed from 1977 until 2001.
That seat was won in 1977 by the National Party’s Des Frawley, who had previously held Murrumba since 1972. Frawley was succeeded in 1983 by National candidate Bill Newton. Newton moved to the new seat of Glass House in 1986, but lost that seat in 1989.
Caboolture was won by Labor’s Ken Hayward in 1986. Hayward moved to the seat of Kallangur in 1992 and held it until his retirement in 2009.
Labor’s Jon Sullivan won the seat of Glass House in 1989, defeating Bill Newton. Glass House was abolished in 1992, and Sullivan moved to Caboolture, holding it until 1998.
One Nation candidate Bill Feldman won Caboolture in 1998. In 1999, he left One Nation and helped found the City Country Alliance.
Caboolture was abolished in 2001, with two new seats of Pumicestone and Glass House being created.
Feldman ran for the new seat of Pumicestone, losing to Labor’s Carryn Sullivan, wife of the MP Feldman defeated in 1998.
Pumicestone was held by Labor until 2012, when the LNP’s Lisa France won the seat. The seat has changed hands at every election since: Labor regained the seat in 2015, the LNP won in 2017, Labor won in 2020 and the LNP’s Ariana Doolan won in 2024.
Meanwhile in the neighbouring seat of Glass House, Labor’s Carolyn Male won the seat in 2001. She moved to the new seat of Pine Rivers in 2009, and Glass House was won by the LNP’s Andrew Powell, who has held the seat ever since.
Assessment
This section will be filled in closer to the election.
| Party | % |
| Liberal National | 38.0 |
| Labor | 36.9 |
| One Nation | 10.5 |
| Greens | 6.1 |
| Legalise Cannabis | 5.4 |
| Family First | 2.9 |
| Informal | 4.4 |
2024 two-party-preferred result
| Party | % |
| Liberal National | 51.2 |
| Labor | 48.8 |
Booths have been divided into three parts: central, west and south-east. The south-east covers the most urban booths around Caboolture itself.
The LNP won 61.4% of the two-party-preferred vote in the centre and 62.1% in the west, while Labor won 60.5% in the south-east.
One Nation came third, with a primary vote ranging from 11% in the south-east to 13.4% in the west.
| Voter group | ON prim | LNP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| South-East | 11.0 | 39.5 | 4,124 | 13.3 |
| Central | 12.1 | 61.4 | 1,747 | 5.7 |
| West | 13.4 | 62.1 | 1,310 | 4.2 |
| Other votes | 10.3 | 52.1 | 7,147 | 23.1 |
| Pre-poll | 10.1 | 51.9 | 16,571 | 53.6 |
Election results in Caboolture at the 2024 Queensland state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal National Party and One Nation.