LNP 3.3%
Incumbent MP
Amanda Camm, since 2020.
Geography
North Queensland. The seat stretches along the Queensland coast from just north of Mackay to just south of Bowen. It covers parts of Mackay and Whitsunday local government areas, including Cannonvale, Airlie Beach, Proserpine, Calen and some outer northern and western suburbs of Mackay.
History
Whitsunday was created for the 1950 election and was a solid seat for the Country/National party for most of its history.
The seat was held by three MPs from the Country Party or National Party from 1950 until 1989.
In 1989, the ALP won government for the first time in decades under its leader Wayne Goss. In a shock result, Whitsunday was won by the ALP’s Lorraine Bird.
Bird held the seat throughout the Goss government. She was defeated in 1998 by One Nation’s Harry Black. Black left One Nation in 1999 and helped found the City Country Alliance that year.
In 2001, Black ran as the City Country Alliance candidate, but was defeated by the ALP’s Jan Jarrett. Jarrett was re-elected in 2004, 2006 and 2009, and was appointed as Minister for Tourism, Manufacturing and Small Business in February 2011.
In 2012, Labor MP Jan Jarrett was defeated by LNP candidate Jason Costigan. Costigan was narrowly re-elected in 2015 and 2017.
Costigan was suspended from the LNP in early 2019. He went on to sit in parliament as an independent, and formed the North Queensland First party later that year.
Costigan contested Whitsunday at the 2020 election, coming in fourth place. Whitsunday was won by LNP candidate Amanda Camm.
- Bauke Hovinga (Labor)
- Amanda Camm (Liberal National)
- Elena Quirk (Greens)
- Julie Hall (One Nation)
- Peter Atchison (Family First)
Assessment
Whitsunday is a very marginal LNP seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Amanda Camm | Liberal National | 9,592 | 32.8 | +0.7 |
| Angie Kelly | Labor | 9,523 | 32.6 | +1.5 |
| Deb Lawson | One Nation | 2,742 | 9.4 | -10.7 |
| Jason Costigan | North Queensland First | 2,735 | 9.4 | +9.4 |
| Ciaron Paterson | Katter’s Australian Party | 1,803 | 6.2 | -3.0 |
| Paul Hilder | Legalise Cannabis | 1,417 | 4.9 | +4.9 |
| Emma Barrett | Greens | 1,134 | 3.9 | -1.8 |
| Greg Armstrong | United Australia | 255 | 0.9 | +0.9 |
| Informal | 1,114 | 3.7 |
2020 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Amanda Camm | Liberal National | 15,552 | 53.3 | +2.6 |
| Angie Kelly | Labor | 13,649 | 46.7 | -2.6 |
Booths in Whitsunday have been divided into three areas. Polling places on the outskirts of Mackay have been grouped, with the remainder split into centre and north.
The LNP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in Mackay (53.2%) and the cnetre (56.4%), while the vote was tied in the north.
| Voter group | ON prim % | LNP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Mackay | 8.5 | 53.2 | 3,269 | 11.2 |
| North | 10.0 | 50.0 | 2,086 | 7.1 |
| Central | 8.6 | 56.4 | 1,823 | 6.2 |
| Pre-poll | 9.5 | 53.0 | 15,570 | 53.3 |
| Other votes | 9.6 | 54.2 | 6,453 | 22.1 |
Election results in Whitsunday at the 2020 Queensland state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal National Party, Labor, One Nation and North Queensland First.
This is a seat Labor seems to have just missed out during this period of Labor Government. I was held for most of the Beattie/Bligh Years & all the Wayne Goss Years. The presence of Right-wing populist parties (such as NQF, ONP, UAP, KAP) may have complicated this seat for Labor.
Whitsunday was held continuously by the Country/National Party from its creation in 1950 until 1989.
In 1989, the sitting member, Geoff Muntz, was dis-endorsed following corruption allegations He ran as an independent which reduced the National vote enough for Labor to win.
It is not uncommon for National/LNP to lose a seat to Labor when the sitting member is dis-endorsed, or quits, and runs as an independent. For example, Mulgrave and Isis both in 1989.
Labor has a tendency to lose regional seats when head office overrides the local branch pre-selection and the local members refuse to work on the campaign, or even run an independent candidate against the endorsed candidate. For example, Bundaberg 2006, Head Office overrode the local branch and local branch ran an independent candidate.
In 2020, with the sitting LNP member for Whitsunday dis-endorsed and re-contesting, it looked like Labor would win. The local Labor branches preselected the candidate that came close to winning in 2015 and 2017. Labor head office overrode the local preselection and some local branches refused to help with the campaign.
Whitsundays is a seat that Labor held during the Beattie/Bligh years, lost in 2012 and hasn’t regained since. They were close in 2015 and 2017. They really missed their chance.
I suspect in 2024, LNP’s primary vote will increase as support for the minor right-wing parties (NQF, UAP, ONP, KAP) collapses.
@Votante agreed, seems to me that Labor isn’t getting close again any time soon.
Yep – a seat Labor let slip through its fingers during the Palaszczuk years. They put up a strong candidate in 2020, but just couldn’t muster a win. Camm has been a standout for the LNP and had a strong first term as MP (much better than the previous oaf).
Camm will be a Minister later this year and could also be a future leadership aspirant, depending how long she stays in politics.
Please Explain? One Nation seems to have two candidates for this seat, Julie Hall (former mayor) and Andrew Elborne. Both are listed on their website as the candidate for Whitsunday. The former has been posting a lot on socials, but the latter hasn’t posted anything since easter.
A A – must have been a mistake. On Facebook Julie is running for Whitsunday and Andrew is running in Burdekin.
@PRP @AA yeah Wikipedia has Andrew Elborne listed as the One Nation candidate for Burdekin and Julie Hall as the One Nation candidate for Whitsunday.
The LNP have done well so far with candidates. The election isn’t until October but they’ve already got candidates for all of the seats where there is a broad, bipartisan consensus that they’re winnable (I say this because TBH this time I think the LNP have a chance in traditionally less-competitive seats like Bulimba, Murrumba and Stretton and I think Labor will get a big swing against them in Gladstone but they’ll marginally hold on). The next seat they need a candidate for is Lytton which is a winnable seat due to the general nature of the election and the results in Wynnum Manly at the BCC election earlier this year where Labor lost the safe ward with a 12% swing against them.
22% swing to LNP is my prediction here. Katter possibly will be 2nd but One Nation could split the vote with KAP meaning Labor is 2nd.
Unless Katter doesn’t run, but this is NQ, they would be foolish not to run and absorb some of the Labor vote
I think this could end up as an LNP vs ONP contest. Labor has announced their candidate quite late, and the One Nation candidate is high-profile and well known. With the KAP and NQF not running, and a big primary swing away from the ALP (mostly to the LNP), I can see the ONP vote rebounding to 2017 levels (around 20%), and the ALP slipping to third behind One Nation’s Julie Hall.
Obviously, it would be a safe LNP seat, with a first preference LNP vote over 45% and a margin of over 65%.
Hypothetically, it would be something like this:
LNP 56.1% (+23.3%)
ONP 19.6% (+10.2%)
ALP 16.4% (-16.2%)
GRN 6.1% (+2.2%)
FFP 1.8% (+1.8%)
NQF 0.0% (-9.4%)
KAP 0.0% (-6.2%)
LCQ 0.0% (-4.9%)
UAP 0.0% (-0.9%)
After preferences:
Safe LNP 71.7% (vs ONP)
From 53 to 71% 2cp sounds unbelievable.. prob lnp win but that is unlikely.
It’s unlikely, and I’m usually not one to overexaggerate LNP victories, but Labor have left it so late to announce a candidate here. He’s only started campaigning in the past week.
One Nation could come second here and in Maryborough but I think it’ll be still LNP vs Labor in both. Keppel on the other hand might be interesting.
One Nation’s vote will be different everywhere, there’ll be a swing to them in some areas (e.g Keppel because of the high-profile candidate (James Ashby) and very active campaign somewhat comparable to the Greens campaigns in inner-city Brisbane).
If One Nation had run Ashby in 2017 and had this type of campaign they could’ve beat Labor and won on LNP preferences.
One Nation could’ve won Logan and Thuringowa in 2017 if the LNP preferenced them over Labor in those seats. If they ran Sam Cox in Thuringowa (instead of Burdekin), they might’ve been able to win without LNP preferences. I agree they could’ve also won Keppel in 2017 if Ashby ran.
Ashby will not win.Keppel. he has too many scandals and too much baggage. He has never contested a seat.in parliament before. His role whilst working for Peter Slipper and colluding with parts of then liberal party was disgusting. If he could not be loyal he should have resigned. It.is possible that the lnp may win here.but not onp.
Please google Ashbygate
And James Ashby if you wish to know more. Has the lnp agreed to preference James Ashby?
Ashby is dodgy af. Par for the course for One Notion.
I never said Ashby would win in 2024 I said he could finish second though (to the LNP).
Remember as a person who grew up rural and conservative I can tell you people are less informed about political scandals in the regions (cities like the Gold Coast, Newcastle and even Townsville are not regional they are metropolitan).
@Mick Quinlivan I’m talking about Keppel in 2017, before the NRA funding scandal happened. I know about Ashbygate and the scandals with Peter Slipper. But to be completely honest, only political nerds really care about Ashby’s scandals. One Nation voters probably don’t care. I mean, One Nation’s popularity is off the back of Pauline Hanson. And Pauline is as scandal-prone as politicians get. So I think despite the scandals, Ashby (a strong campaigner and high profile individual) could’ve won Keppel in 2017. And honestly, I think there is a chance of him winning Keppel in 2024 – he is a very active campaigner and has a lot of money being thrown at Keppel.
Townsville is very much regional lol
And eh, Ashby is shady no doubt, just like there are dodgy characters in all parties in all levels of government. If the voters of Keppel want to send a message by making him their representative, who am I to stop them?
Ashby winning Keppel in 2017 is absolute fan fiction. Did he have any connections with the electorate then, apart from flying his boss over it?
Ashby? Strong campaigner? He might be good at throwing money at places for campaigning but I feel like his oily political personality is pretty transparent.