LNP 23.1%
Incumbent MP
Ann Leahy, since 2015.
Geography
South-Western Queensland. The seat covers the south-western corner of Queensland, bordering New South Wales and South Australia. Warrego covers Balonne, Bulloo, Murweh, Paroo, Roma and Quilpie council areas and parts of the Western Downs council area. The seat’s major centres include St George, Cunnamulla, Thargomindah, Miles, Roma, Quilpie, Dalby and Charleville.
History
The seat of Warrego has existed continuously since 1865. The seat was held by the ALP continuously from 1908 to 1974. The seat has been held by Country/National/Liberal National MPs since 1974.
Neil Turner won Warrego for the Country Party in 1974. He held the seat until 1986. He later returned to Parliament as Member for Nicklin from 1990 to 1998, when he lost to independent candidate Peter Wellington. He served as Speaker of the Legislative Assembly from 1996 to 1998.
Howard Hobbs won Warrego for the National Party in 1986. He was re-elected for a further nine terms, and retired in 2015.
LNP candidate Ann Leahy won the seat in 2015, and has been re-elected twice.
Assessment
Warrego is the safest LNP seat in Queensland.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Ann Leahy | Liberal National | 14,100 | 56.0 | +8.4 |
| Mark O’Brien | Labor | 4,966 | 19.7 | -2.0 |
| Rick Gurnett | Katter’s Australian Party | 2,842 | 11.3 | -10.0 |
| Joshua Coyne | One Nation | 2,224 | 8.8 | +8.8 |
| Joshua Sanderson | Greens | 569 | 2.3 | -0.8 |
| Mark Stone | Independent | 487 | 1.9 | -1.5 |
| Informal | 521 | 2.0 |
2020 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Ann Leahy | Liberal National | 18,424 | 73.1 | |
| Mark O’Brien | Labor | 6,764 | 26.9 |
Booths in Warrego have been divided into four areas: Dalby, Roma, Balonne and the west.
The LNP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all four areas, ranging from 68.3% in the west to 72.8% in Roma.
Katter’s Australian Party came third, with a primary vote ranging from 9.5% in Balonne to 15.5% in the west.
| Voter group | KAP prim % | LNP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Dalby | 11.6 | 70.2 | 3,199 | 12.7 |
| Roma | 14.1 | 72.8 | 1,667 | 6.6 |
| West | 15.5 | 68.3 | 865 | 3.4 |
| Balonne | 9.5 | 70.0 | 504 | 2.0 |
| Other votes | 10.2 | 78.4 | 9,687 | 38.5 |
| Pre-poll | 11.5 | 69.3 | 9,266 | 36.8 |
Election results in Warrego at the 2020 Queensland state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal National Party, Labor and Katter’s Australian Party.
This one’s a no-brainer. I mean the LNP won over 80% of the TPP here last year election and it’s located in the safest seat for any party in the country: Maranoa (held by Nationals leader David Littleproud). So obviously LNP retain. The betting odds would be 1.00 for LNP at best, if not nonexistent.
@ Nether Portal the LNP won with just over 70 percent of the TPP here in 2020 if that’s what you’re referring to. I haven’t calculated what the results would be based on last year’s federal election.
Otherwise, Warrego is obviously an LNP retain as you said. In the right circumstances I suspect that they could someday lose it to either an Independent or a minor party such as the Katters. Both of these examples have pulled its margin under 10% so far this century, with the Independent in particular coming extremely close to taking it off the Nationals in the early 2000s.
Perhaps I shouldn’t bring up ancient news, but it’s interesting to me that the MP for such a conservative seat, Ann Leahy, was once a staffer to the previous MP for this seat, Howard Hobbs, who resigned from the Borbidge government due to supposedly cheating on his wife with her.
Yep – no-brainer – easy LNP retain. Not much more else to say really.
LNP easy retain, will be 80% TPP.
One Nation could come second here in the absence of KAP. They’ve never managed to make the TCP in Warrego because there’s always been just enough Labor voters to keep them out, or the Katter’s as in 2012 and 2017. They picked their candidate late, but it seems she lives in Condamine (the town, not the electorate) so at least she’s not a parachuted ghost candidate.
Anyway, if they manage to make the TCP here and in Callide/Condamine it might mean Surfers Paradise or Broadwater ends up the safest LNP seat post-election instead of a regional electorate.
I am surprise Labor is still in the 2CP until. Labor did not make the 2CP in Maranoa is either 2016 or 2019 same with Condamine and Southern Downs.
I didn’t realise that the Condamine town isn’t in the Condamine electorate. Maybe the electorate needs to be renamed? I expect Southern Downs will be LNP vs ONP, as the ONP candidate has been campaigning for a while.
will be vs labor again
@Nimalan I think that will change this time around with the drop in the Labor vote.
However I think it’s worth noting that (at least in the Warwick and Stanthorpe parts of Maranoa) One Nation came third in 2019 whereas in the more rural areas outside the major towns they came second which is why they got in the TCP in 2016 and 2019.
Won’t be vs Labor otherwise it will be 85% or more TPP for the LNP.
Labor should give up running candidates in these seats as there is not a upper house so it’s not helpful anyway.
Whats the point of running? I can see the merit federally due to the senate vote, but QLD has no upper house.
@A A it’s technically named after the Condamine River, which does form part of the electorate’s border, but yeah they should have just retained the Cunningham name at the 2009 redistribution when it and Darling Downs merged to form Condamine.
Warrego had a Labor mp till 1957. Boundary changes can occur or you can get a popular mayor who is labor
Wrong alp held till 1974
The point of running is to articulate your party’s platform and perspective, and respect your constituents by giving them the opportunity to vote for – or against – your party. It’s called democracy, and whether your party gets one, one hundred or one thousand votes, it should be respected.
If parties only ran in seats they could win, every seat west of the divide would be declared with one candidate elected already.
@Mick Quinlivan until 1974* And it remained marginal until 1992, but that was only because of the zoning system allowing for smaller regional electorates. Back then Warrego only really consisted of Charleville, Quilpie and Cunnamulla hence why Labor could win. But these days it includes Roma and Dalby which are far larger towns and strongly conservative.
@mick i believe you mean 1974?. most regional areas were represented by labor back in the day this is back in the days of “old labor” when they stod for thing that they no longer stand for
Why did it flip in 1974? I know it was a Joh landslide but the swing was much bigger than the statewide average (14%)
Equally this didn’t even swing in 1989, why is that? Did Russel Coopers presence in neighbouring Roma help the Nats in this seat? You would have thought based off 1986 this would’ve been a Labor gain in 1989
@ NP
Agree, i am just thinking with the general decline of major party vote would it be the norm that there are more non classic races. For example, 2020 was a good result for Queensland Labor but they did not make the 2CP in Maiwar is it possible even in a good year Labor cannot make the 2CP in Warrego, Moggill?
@ MQ in addition to what Laine mentioned, there are few other factors with automation and mechanization of agriculture there are less working class people in rural areas. Once upon a time Maranoa was a Labor seat, those days are long gone.
@Daniel T I think the rural working-class decline reached Warrego a bit later than elsewhere, and when it did those few voters who switched to the Nationals in 1974 never looked back, so it remained in marginal limbo until one-vote, one-value reforms. Also, it had a large Indigenous population when it was a smaller seat. Even today Paroo Shire (Cunnamulla) is 36% Indigenous and Murweh (Charleville) is 12% Indigenous.
Labor won.Maranoa.from 1901 to mid 20s when the sitting mp died. The seat was won again in 1940 but narrowly lost in 1953.
You mean 1943?