KAP 24.7% vs ALP
Incumbent MP
Rob Katter, since 2017. Previously member for Mount Isa 2012-2017.
Geography
North-Western Queensland. The seat of Traeger covers the city of Mount Isa and a large mass of northwestern Queensland, stretching from the NT boundary to Charters Towers. The seat covers the local government areas of Burke, Charters Towers, Cloncurry, Croydon, Doomadgee, Etheridge, Flinders, McKinlay, Mornington, Mount Isa, Richmond and parts of Carpentaria.
History
Traeger was created in 2017, but is mostly just a replacement for the seat of Mount Isa, which had existed since 1972. It had been predominantly won by the Labor Party.
Alex Inch won the seat for the ALP in 1972. He lost in 1974 to Country Party candidate Angelo Bertini. He held the seat until 1983, when he was defeated by Labor candidate Bill Price. Price himself was defeated in 1986 by Liberal candidate Peter Beard. Beard held the seat for one term, losing in 1989.
The ALP’s Tony McGrady won the seat in 1989. He held the seat throughout the 1990s, and became a minister in 1998. He became Speaker of the Legislative Assembly in 2005, and retired in 2006.
Labor’s Betty Kiernan held Mount Isa for two terms from 2006 to 2012.
In 2012, Kiernan lost Mount Isa to Rob Katter. Katter, the son of federal MP Bob Katter, ran for Katter’s Australian Party. Labor suffered a large 18% swing and Kiernan was relegated to third place. Has been re-elected three times, with the seat being renamed as “Traeger” in 2017.
Assessment
Traegar is a very safe KAP seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Robbie Katter | Katter’s Australian Party | 12,047 | 58.9 | -7.4 |
| James Bambrick | Labor | 4,219 | 20.6 | +4.0 |
| Marnie Smith | Liberal National | 3,284 | 16.0 | +6.0 |
| Kristian Horvath | Greens | 460 | 2.2 | +0.1 |
| Craig H.B Scriven | Independent | 277 | 1.4 | -0.3 |
| Phillip Collins | United Australia | 182 | 0.9 | +0.9 |
| Informal | 633 | 3.0 |
2020 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Robbie Katter | Katter’s Australian Party | 15,295 | 74.7 | -3.8 |
| James Bambrick | Labor | 5,174 | 25.3 | +3.8 |
Booths in Traeger have been divided into three areas. Polling places in Mount Isa have been grouped together, with the remainder divided into north and south.
The Katter’s Australian Party two-candidate-preferred vote (against Labor) ranged from 63.5% in the north to 83.1% in the south.
| Voter group | LNP prim % | KAP 2CP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Mount Isa | 10.2 | 65.5 | 3,002 | 14.7 |
| South | 19.3 | 83.1 | 2,717 | 13.3 |
| North | 13.7 | 63.5 | 1,082 | 5.3 |
| Pre-poll | 14.4 | 74.3 | 10,854 | 53.0 |
| Other votes | 26.2 | 82.6 | 2,814 | 13.7 |
Election results in Traeger at the 2020 Queensland state election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Katter’s Australian Party vs Labor) and primary votes for Katter’s Australian Party, Labor and the Liberal National Party.
The safest non-ALP seat north of the Tropic of Capricorn, until Robbie inevitably follows his dad to Canberra. LNP may have better luck once that happens, but I doubt it.
@nq robbie will most likely switch to federal at the 2028 federal election as his dad will probly retire at the election if hes still above ground
Given that Robbie will probably be in federal politics after the end of next term who would win this after he’s gone especially after the redistribution?
@John either KAP or the LNP.
I imagine the kap would just put up another candidate. I reckon the lnp wouldn’t as they heavy Labor vote in Mt Isa would get them elected as they previously did before kap
Possible alp win if the name Katter is not on the
Ballot paper
Without Robbie this will be a genuine three way. Katter has held the vote so long that it is difficult to know how much of the old ALP vote still exists and whether some traditional voters will stick to KAP or even end up in the LNP camp.
@LNPinsider I’d say most would fall into the LNP camp. Labor is dead in rural areas now.
In 2022, Labor finished third in Mount Isa itself (the polling place Mount Isa in Kennedy). Bob Katter finished first and the LNP finished second. The same thing happened at the Mount Isa PPVC.
Very Safe KAP retain this time – but I suspect this is his last term before a move to Canberra. Either way, KAP retain at a future by-election or general election.
@PRP i dunno about after he moves to canberra as the redistribution might throw a curveball
KAP hold easily, but KAP vs LNP.
This is the first time One Nation is going to run in Traeger (and Hill too actually). Not the most interesting race in the world, but I am curious how much support they can muster up here. Despite his personal vote I think Robbie’s primary vote will be impacted by both the statewide swing to the LNP and a One Nation candidate actually being fielded here this time, maybe falling to around 47-52% as opposed to 59%.
Either way an obvious safe KAP retain vs LNP as NP said.
I think One Nation will muster up between 2% and 5% in Traeger, and between 7% and 15% in Hill.
should be robbies last election at a state level id say
John, so do you believe that he will run for his father’s seat of Kennedy either in 2025 or later once his father dies/resigns.
bob katter has previously stated that 2025 would likely be his last election and yes i believe robbie will run in 2028. if he doesnt theyd just be giving it back to the lnp at least they can hold both kennedy and traegar if robbie runs at a federal level in kennedy they can just put someone else in traegar. id say kenndey will be a katter seat for the forseeable future
Robbie Katter has just backflipped on his vow to introduce legislation to reban abortion. I welcome this move.
Source: https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/state-election/katters-australian-party-leader-robbie-katter-backtracks-on-vow-to-repeal-abortion-laws/news-story/fa28f0c31b45d9ed106b7c8ad79b9581
I welcome this move too, provided it is a genuine move and not a calculated decision to prevent the further leakage of moderate and populist voters away from the KAP and LNP over this single issue.
A woman’s reproductive choices is not the domain of politicians. It is a private, personal and moral decision for the individual and the individual alone.
There’s nothing in Katter’s statement suggesting he’s had some genuine change of heart in his views on the issue. Of course this is a calculated political decision.
But who believes he has changed his mind and Mr C
still won’t say whether there will be a conscience vote of lnp members or not
Poll driven decision making
He’s allowed to personally oppose it because it’s his opinion but he shouldn’t be putting forward legislation to go backwards. Obviously he watched what happened in the US and thinks that can happen here.