LNP 7.3%
Incumbent MP
Trevor Watts, since 2012.
Geography
Northern parts of Toowoomba, including central Toowoomba as well as Wilsonton, Rockville, Mount Lofty, North Toowoomba, East Toowoomba, Harlaxton and parts of Newtown.
The seat of Toowoomba North was first contested at the 1972 election. While the seat has been held by conservative parties for a majority of its existence, it has often been won by the ALP.
The seat was first won in 1972 by the ALP’s Ray Bousen, but he lost in a landslide victory for the Bjelke-Petersen government in 1974. John Lockwood of the Liberal Party won the seat in 1974.
Lockwood held the seat until the 1983 election, when he was defeated by Sandy McPhie of the National Party. At the 1983 election, the coalition between the National Party and the Liberal Party was dissolved, and a majority of Liberal MPs were defeated for re-election, including Lockwood.
McPhie held the seat until 1989, when he was defeated by the ALP’s John Flynn as part of the ALP’s return to power under Wayne Goss. Flynn lost in 1992 to the National Party’s Graham Healy.
Healy was re-elected in 1995 and served as a parliamentary secretary in the Borbidge government in 1998. He then served as a shadow minister after the ALP won the 1998 election.
In 2001, Peter Beattie’s ALP won a second term in a landslide, and the ALP’s Kerry Shine defeated Healy in Toowoomba North. Shine served as Attorney-General in the Beattie and Bligh governments from 2006 to 2009, and held the seat until 2012.
In 2012, Shine was defeated by LNP candidate Trevor Watts. Watts has been re-elected three times.
Assessment
Toowoomba North is a reasonably safe LNP seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Trevor Watts | Liberal National | 16,115 | 50.0 | +7.8 |
| Megan O’Hara Sullivan | Labor | 11,297 | 35.0 | +2.0 |
| Ron Humphrey | One Nation | 2,380 | 7.4 | -7.3 |
| Alyce Nelligan | Greens | 2,080 | 6.5 | -0.1 |
| Stella Sokolova | United Australia | 364 | 1.1 | +1.1 |
| Informal | 819 | 2.5 |
2020 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Trevor Watts | Liberal National | 18,479 | 57.3 | +1.6 |
| Megan O’Hara Sullivan | Labor | 13,757 | 42.7 | -1.6 |
Booths in Toowoomba North have been divided into three areas: east, north and south.
The LNP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in the east (56.1%) and north (57.4%), as well as in the pre-poll vote (58.3%) while Labor polled 51.4% in the south.
| Voter group | LNP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| North | 57.4 | 3,737 | 11.6 |
| East | 56.1 | 2,421 | 7.5 |
| South | 48.6 | 1,822 | 5.7 |
| Pre-poll | 58.3 | 12,487 | 38.7 |
| Other votes | 57.9 | 11,769 | 36.5 |
Election results in Toowoomba North at the 2020 Queensland state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal National Party and Labor.
Given that Groom went to preferences for the first time ever last year, I wondered whether any of the corresponding state seats would be ripe for a locally-minded independent to give the LNP status quo a shake. If the LNP was in power for 29 of the last 35 years, maybe Toowoomba North would be that seat. However, the ALP is in that position, and given the youth crime epidemic, I suspect voters will have their bats out.
@NQ View
No. Your comment is really grasping at straws. The independent in Groom finished with a paltry 8.3% on the primary vote. Combine that with Toowoomba North is Labor’s only chance of winning a seat in Toowoomba and they throw everything at it. I really can’t see anything other then a LNP vs Labor two party contest with the LNP retaining. The baseball bats comment seems more like LNP cheer leading. Nobody is suggesting Labor can’t lose the next election, but there has been no suggestion from the polls or the commentators that they there facing a landslide loss. Law and Order has been exaggerated as an issue in terms of a vote changer. The last two elections its been predicted Labor will lose seats in Townsville on Law and Order which has hasn’t happened.
Agree PN, I don’t think this situation is comparable to the 2012 landslide or 1996 (Borbridge’s win) where voters were angry with state Labor. A better comparison would be to the recent NSW election, where overall the incumbent Coalition government was implementing positive policies but there was some discomfort with certain aspects (public services and cost of living), coupled with the ‘it’s time’ factor that enabled the Labor opposition to achieve a narrow win.
@ Yoh An the NSW election is a good comparison provided nothing major changes in the coming months.
It’s only been 11 years since Labor were swept out of power by the LNP, which I think is important to remember as a landslide and not simply “3 of the 5 years Labor were not in government since 1989” despite what later happened in 2015.
I could also see this election as a turning point for Queensland to adopt a somewhat normal voting pattern as is the case in the other states, rather than going decades without changing government as it has done so historically.
I don’t think there’s any “sign” to support that, it’s more or less just my prediction and/or opinion.
PN
I wasn’t suggesting that an independent could take Toowoomba North, was only musing that out of the three seats that make up Groom (Tba N, Tba S and Condamine), this would be the most likely. The independent candidate snowballed into 43% on final preferences. If the voters were dissatisfied with Watts personally but didn’t want to cast a vote for the ALP, I wouldn’t be surprised if another independent campaign had comparable results (NOTE – not to the point of taking the seat).
There is quite a bit of coverage about youth crime here, and it is almost universally filtered through the lens of blaming the state government. I can understand your point of view, but the difference between Toowoomba and Townsville is that the seats here aren’t marginal as they are up north. The LNP could conceivably take this seat with more than 60% of the 2PP vote.
The last four elections have seen the LNP 2PP vote as thus:
2012 – 59.58
2015 – 51.61
2017 – 55.70
2020 – 57.32
Out of interest, the last time Toowoomba North gave more than 60% of preferences to a candidate, it went to Kerry Shine from the ALP. His opponent was Lyle Shelton who was running for the Nats.
I doubt an independent would win this seat. Toowoomba is very LNP-voting.
This was Labor held during the Beattie/Bligh years but not since. Has it permanently shifted rightwards?
Yes, absolutely. Aging population and a very conservative area. Would be unlikely to go back to Labor.
if qec drew a toowoomba electorate around the city centre that left out highfields and the darling downs hinterland then i guess the alp might be able to win it sometime in the future. but there would be so many better prospects for them elsewhere anyway. and it sure as shit ain’t happening this year.
I find it interesting that solidly LNP voting Toowoomba is bigger than Labor voting Bendigo and Ballarat, and about the same distance from Brisbane that Ballarat is from Melbourne.
Very safe LNP retain, like neighbouring Toowoomba South and Condamine. The gentrification here has worked very much against Labor in the recent decade and I can’t see them ever losing the region.
Having an Independent like Suzie Holt would be possible as her vote share was largely concentrated in Toowoomba, & even if it she wasn’t successful, she could carry that momentum in Groom at the next federal election.
Holt would be better in South as this one had a history of being Labor and marginal. South would be better for Holt. But she won’t dislodge the popular Janetzki who I can see as a future leader of the LNP.
Suzie Holt won’t ever be elected to Federal or State Parliament.
@NP Absolutely right. She only got second in Groom because of Greens and Kirstie Smolenski’s preferences.
Suzie Holt won’t ever be elected. Toowoomba is solidly LNP voting due to its older population. She came 4th on first preferences with only 8.2% of the vote (behind One Nation, Labor and the LNP), but passed the former two on preferences from Greens and UAP.
Labor have announced James Green as their candidate in Toowoomba North. Green has been described in the local media as ‘jack of all trades’, working in labour, trade, farming, and education. Tough election to be standing for a Labor candidate particularly in the regions where dissatisfaction is most prominent with Labor from the voters.
The discussion of a independent candidate has been quite irrelevant in this seat. I haven’t seen any prominent announcement of a independent candidate standing in Toowoomba North. LNP to retain and increase their margin.
In the lead up to each Queensland state election, I read the many posts about regional dissatisfaction with Labor. The posts from 2017 and 2020 elections are still on this site.
Despite all the claims, Labor keeps gaining regional seats. Toowoomba and Gympie are now the only regional urban centres, with populations greater than 20,000, not held by Labor.
Does anyone have an explanation for why, the claimed regional dissatisfaction with Labor, results in Labor gaining seats from the LNP?
@Watson Watch Labor lost Bundaberg in 2017.
COVID helped in seats like Hervey Bay, but it didn’t help in some Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast seats (and it didn’t help much in Barron River either), likely due to the impact on tourism.
Furthermore, Mount Isa isn’t Labor-held either.
@watson watch
It’s been acknowledged that Labor’s polling is not going well in the regions in the media. I know you can’t believe everything in the media, but there has been too many polls to suggest the swing is on.
You are right though about posts over exaggerating law and order issues in regional Queensland. The last two state elections It’s been posted Labor would definitely lose state seats in Townsville on Law and order which hasn’t eventuated.
LNP Corflutes went up last night. Much better sited than those in Toowoomba South. Seemed to be on main thoroughfares and certainly not just in strong LNP areas of electorate.
My prediction LNP retain but I have been mixing with Carnival of Flowers entrants who I suspect are older and more Tory than the rest of electorate.
Malcolm Mackerras ( a voice from Past) had a prediction in Toowoomba Chronocle this morning
LNP 50 Seats
All others 43 but he predicts KAP with 5, Greens with 5 and Ashby winning in Keppel with 1 independent in Noosa.
He is predicting ALP losing
Bundaberg
Nicklin,
Hervey Bay,
Caloundra, Barron River, Townsville,
Thuringowa,
Redlands,
Mundingburra,
Aspley,
Pummicestone,
Redcliffe,
Cook,
Pine Rivers,
Mulgrave and
Gaven.
His Pendulum
In Chronicle and probably other News Regional Papers.
Anyone with a News subscription can access on line,.
.
Malcolm often gets it wrong…. so alp retains all those seats?
Mick Quinlan,
We all get it wrong sometimes but Mackerras gives an explanation as to how he came to his prediction. What is your explanation to why he has got it wrong.
My feeling is that ALP will lose based on conversations I have had, polling results and feed back from three candidates I have spoken to.
I don’t think result will be a landslide victory but o would besurprided if Miles is Premier in a months time.
Andrew, I think Mick might be asking why Malcolm Mackeras is predicting Labor to retain more seats than expected. I predict Labor will fall to 20 or possibly fewer seats, with gains coming in places like capalaba and Mt ommaney.
Labor is not retaining that many seats.