Springwood – Queensland 2024

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  1. LNP announced accountant Susanna Damianopoulos as their canidate. Judging by the statewide polling you would have to think the LNP is a good chance here. Yes, the polling is stronger for the LNP in the regions. But Springwood falls into that bellwether type of seat. But because the LNP have been so dominated by Labor in state politics the last 30 years. Springwood isn’t viewed that way because Labor has been so frequently elected there.

    It’s not out of the question MP Mick de Brenni to hold on. But Labor needs narrow the statewide polling for de Brenni to withstand the pendulum. Right now you would have to say he looks very vulnerable.

  2. Agree this should be a classic bellwether seat, but it’s margin is an indictment of the LNP campaign machinery. At the last two elections the margins have been wider than they should be.

    It’s something I can see swinging strongly with the right candidate and resourcing (plus the current statewide swing). If the state swing is really on it is a seat I can see exceeding the swing and going into more comfortable LNP territory with a better chance to hold for more than one term. Like Petrie and Forde have done Federally since the LNP first took them.

  3. @LNPinsider the LNP really needs to sandbag seats like Barron River and Keppel once in government before seats like this. But I agree this should be sandbagged (same as seats like (potentially) Ipswich West). The federal seats of Forde, Petrie and arguably Longman (all in the outer suburbs of Brisbane) have all been sandbagged by the LNP.

  4. Could be in play – but I suspect Labor MP Mick de Brenni will hold on this time and buck the trend of Springwood being a Government seat.

    de Brenni is another warrior of the Labor Left who sees himself as a potential leader. I think the LNP could come close this time, but I suspect will just fall short.

  5. Correct about the bellwether status but it might buck the trend with Mick de Brenni. He’s built his margin over successive elections. He could scrape by and if he does, will likely get a more senior portfolio but not leader.


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