ALP 8.3%
Incumbent MP
Mick de Brenni, since 2015.
Geography
South-Eastern Queensland. Springwood covers northern parts of the City of Logan and western parts of the City of Redland, on the southern fringe of Brisbane. Springwood covers the suburbs of Rochedale South, Springwood, Daisy Hill, Shailer Park, Logandale and Mount Cotton.
History
Springwood repeatedly changed hands throughout the 1980s and 1990s, but has mostly remained in Labor hands in recent years, barring one term.
The seat was first won in 1986 by the National Party’s Huan Fraser. He briefly served as a minister in 1989 before losing his seat at the 1989 election.
Molly Robson won the seat for the ALP in 1989, and held it for two seats before losing to the Liberal Party’s Luke Woolmer in 1995. The ALP was hit in Springwood in 1995 due to a controversial tollway planned to be built through a local koala sanctuary. The Democrats polled over 18% and the Liberals won in a huge swing with preferences from other candidates.
Grant Musgrove won the seat back for the ALP in 1998. He resigned from the ALP in 2000 after being embroiled in a scandal involving fraudulent electoral enrolments, and he was replaced at the 2001 election by Labor candidate Barbara Stone.
Barbara Stone held Springwood for four terms, from 2001 to 2012. In 2012, Stone lost to LNP candidate John Grant with a 19.5% swing.
Grant lost his seat to Labor’s Mick de Brenni in 2015. de Brenni was re-elected in 2017 and 2020.
Assessment
Springwood is a reasonably safe Labor seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Mick de Brenni | Labor | 15,066 | 48.8 | +4.6 |
| Kirrily Boulton | Liberal National | 10,646 | 34.5 | -5.8 |
| Janina Leo | Greens | 2,331 | 7.5 | -1.5 |
| Glen Cookson | One Nation | 1,658 | 5.4 | +5.4 |
| Judy Rush | Animal Justice | 686 | 2.2 | +2.2 |
| Ian Sganzerla | Civil Liberties & Motorists | 261 | 0.8 | -5.7 |
| George Sokolov | United Australia | 234 | 0.8 | +0.8 |
| Informal | 1,083 | 3.4 |
2020 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Mick de Brenni | Labor | 18,005 | 58.3 | +4.7 |
| Kirrily Boulton | Liberal National | 12,877 | 41.7 | -4.7 |
Booths in Springwood have been divided into three areas: central, east and north.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 59.1% in the east to 65.9% in the north.
| Voter group | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Central | 62.1 | 4,026 | 13.0 |
| East | 59.1 | 2,418 | 7.8 |
| North | 65.9 | 1,541 | 5.0 |
| Other votes | 58.1 | 11,752 | 38.1 |
| Pre-poll | 55.9 | 11,145 | 36.1 |
Election results in Springwood at the 2020 Queensland state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor and the Liberal National Party.
LNP announced accountant Susanna Damianopoulos as their canidate. Judging by the statewide polling you would have to think the LNP is a good chance here. Yes, the polling is stronger for the LNP in the regions. But Springwood falls into that bellwether type of seat. But because the LNP have been so dominated by Labor in state politics the last 30 years. Springwood isn’t viewed that way because Labor has been so frequently elected there.
It’s not out of the question MP Mick de Brenni to hold on. But Labor needs narrow the statewide polling for de Brenni to withstand the pendulum. Right now you would have to say he looks very vulnerable.
Agree this should be a classic bellwether seat, but it’s margin is an indictment of the LNP campaign machinery. At the last two elections the margins have been wider than they should be.
It’s something I can see swinging strongly with the right candidate and resourcing (plus the current statewide swing). If the state swing is really on it is a seat I can see exceeding the swing and going into more comfortable LNP territory with a better chance to hold for more than one term. Like Petrie and Forde have done Federally since the LNP first took them.
@LNPinsider the LNP really needs to sandbag seats like Barron River and Keppel once in government before seats like this. But I agree this should be sandbagged (same as seats like (potentially) Ipswich West). The federal seats of Forde, Petrie and arguably Longman (all in the outer suburbs of Brisbane) have all been sandbagged by the LNP.
Could be in play – but I suspect Labor MP Mick de Brenni will hold on this time and buck the trend of Springwood being a Government seat.
de Brenni is another warrior of the Labor Left who sees himself as a potential leader. I think the LNP could come close this time, but I suspect will just fall short.
Correct about the bellwether status but it might buck the trend with Mick de Brenni. He’s built his margin over successive elections. He could scrape by and if he does, will likely get a more senior portfolio but not leader.
I am in the seat of Springwood every day as my kids go to school there. It’s definitely one of the more contested seats – both major campaigns have been active for 6 months and I would drive past about 200 election signs daily.
I think both candidates think they can win.
The problem with Springwood is that most of the time it’s very quiet and ends up with the government of the day. When it swings it swings violently, much like Aspley on the northside. And invariably it shifts based mostly on local issues, so the first role of any newly-elected Member is to make sure there ARE no local issues.
Which has been the rule ever since Molly Robson and the Koala Coast Tollway…
Its been reported in the Courier Mail Susanna Damianopoulos the LNP candidate for Springwood has been very outspoken on her views on abortion. Which she’s entitled to do as its free speech. But this was the criticism of the LNP last state election. That some of the candidates they chose in Brisbane are too right wing for a moderate voting public in Brisbane.
There has also been suggestion the NSW Liberals have been more successful in Sydney. Then the LNP in Brisbane, because their candidates are more moderate.
LNP has suggested in the past they would water down laws. David Crisafulli has said since then they won’t do it in the first term. But that doesn’t completely rule out them doing it in the future.
It also mentioned in Courier Mail report Damianopoulos has previously worked in the office for federal LNP MP for Bowman Henry Pike.
I’m saddened to hear that there are so many LNP candidates with these views. There’s a lot I like about the LNP, but I don’t think I could ever really support them while there’s so many in the party pushing an illiberal agenda on issues like abortion.
The Queensland LNP branch reminds me of the North Carolina branch of the Republican party which is known to have a significant number of members who hold far right ideals/views. The Greater Brisbane metropolitan area is also like the Charlotte metropolitan area (Mecklenburg County) where a hard right ideology plays poorly, and voters instead have moderate/centrist views.
Alright now that makes 9 LNP Candidates with baggage in this election
LNP candidate will likely be a 1-term MP if they win. Or could lose preselection next time.
Abortion is a human right and anyone who questions this and wants to defend an unborn organism without a beating heart has no clue what Australian women (and around the world)?are going through
LNP should only select Pro-Choice candidates (or at least candidates who pledge to uphold abortion rights)
And example abroad is Tim Kaine, he is Pro-Life personally, but politically has championed reproductive freedom because he knows it isn’t his call.
“LNP candidate will likely be a 1-term MP if they win. Or could lose preselection next time.”
@Daniel T
She will lose her preselection? Yeah, from who? The overwhelming majority of the LNP MP’s voted against the legislation to decriminalize abortion (including David Crisafulli). And even then the only three MP’s that voted for it, got hell in the party over it. To the point there was a plan hatchet by the Christian right in the party to topple some MP’s who voted for it by a branch stacking their electorates. Which was shut down by the party’s then leadership through intervention. If you look at some of the candidates that are standing at the next election including Amanda Stoker. You obviously have no clue what political positions are fashionable in the LNP.
@PN it appears that people like Crisafulli have similar views to Tim Kaine or Chris Luxon in NZ i.e are pro-life personally but won’t campaign against it (or were pro-life and are now pro-choice).
The presence of the right faction in the LNP is overstated, look at people like Sam O’Connor. Sky After Dark treats him like Matt Kean and John Pesutto.
@Yoh An Come on, you aren’t seriously comparing Crisafulli to man who said “I’m a black NAZI!” on a pornography board.
Scart, I wasn’t directly comparing the leaders just saying the LNP party structure seems to be like the North Carolina Republican Party branch in terms of having a majority of members who are considered hardcore conservatives.
Obviously Crisafulli is nowhere near the likes of Mark Robinson, the controversial republican candidate for the North Carolina governorship
Yoh An, except Robinson will win NC, (Stein won’t win because he is too Liberal for NC) I would put every cent on Robinson winning. Polls don’t matter, He will win unless the Dems find a way to steal the election.
But the Republicans in USA are far worse than many Australian Conservatives, even Katherine Deves, Susanna Damianopoulos, Freya Ostapovitch, Alan Jones, And some of the Sky News hosts would look like saints compared to MAGA worshippers in the USA like Trump, Vance, Robinson, Mastriano, etc.
QLD election is only a week or so before the USA election, If the LNP underperform that could spell trouble for Trump, and if the LNP do better than expected it might give more optimism for the Trump side, The right side of politics do better than the polls more often than not due to the ”Shy Tory Factor” but will it keep happening?
NT election was a lot better than published polls for the CLP. Even the UK election, despite being a landslide, saw the Tories outdo their horrendous polling.
On the opinion poll, Stein is leading Robinson by 10+ points which would have to be a large margin of error it has to break. NT Election did not have many polls before just before the election within low population jurisdiction. Regarding UK Election, the polls just a couple of days there was a small positive blip for conservatives which is 23% (almost the same as the results) although Labour did underperform due to lower turnout, would-be-Labour-voters-nationally voting for Lib Dems in Lib Dems-Conservative competitive seats and would-be-Labour-voters-nationally Muslims in voting for pro-Gaza independents.
I don’t see why the US elections are linked to any Australian elections. Whoever wins won’t win because of Australia, they’ll win because American voters vote for them.
In fact even other Australian elections don’t correlate with each other. The LNP will win the Queensland state election but Labor is most likely going to win the federal election.
@ Nether Portal
Agree in the USA religion plays a bigger role. For example 70% of those with no religion indentify with the Democrats while in Australia i dont think that Labor ever would get around 70% of the TPP with voters without a religion.
https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/04/09/party-identification-among-religious-groups-and-religiously-unaffiliated-voters/
@Nimalan given that over half of Australians aren’t religious that would be physically impossible without Labor getting a massive TPP every time. In the US there are less non-religious people and the Republican Party is very Christian.
Agree Nether portal
Thats why i dont think either major party should focus too much on LGBT issues, Abortion, Euthanasia etc. I dont think Labor should focus on being Pro-Choice to win seats like Warringah, Goldstein etc or the Libs focusing on religion to win Calwell, Blaxland and Watson. I dont Labor/Liberal divide is based on religion versus secularism. I prefer the divide to be economic.
@nimalan you can bet you ass if Tony Burke came out and criticised Muhammed he’d be gone.
@ John
I agree with you in that case he would loose but he will probably be disendorsed fist and probably lose to an independent if Labor does not kick him out first. my question really is this should the Libs focus on trying to win Watson, Blaxland and Calwell is that their future?
@nimalan it probably wouldn’t matter they would associate that comment with Labor and retaliate. Watson and Blaxland probably not. Caldwell maybe.
@john…… why would a mp offend adherents of a religion? This is just plain rude
@Mick Qunlinlivan It’s purely hypothetical mate
Look like Debrenni is in court for his involvement in the explosions at callide power plant.
What kind of an energy minister let’s power plants explode?
He won’t hold Springwood after next month he’s gone
Poll Bludger Shows 4 candidates on the ballot in the order of Labor, LNP, Greens & One Nation.
This LNP candidate attracted attention for her past campaigning against abortion.
https://www.pollbludger.net/qld2024/LA.htm?s=Springwood
My vibe is that Springwood will actually swing less than the state as a whole. Both parties are campaigning REALLY hard – each week I’m seeing both candidates out and about, and both sides are really giving it 100%. I think both sides think they have a real chance, which I’m not seeing in Macalister or Capalaba (which both seem gone for Labor).