Scenic Rim – Queensland 2024

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  1. Pauline Hanson should run again or Lockyer. She barely lost in 2015 and now she has very high profile.

    The only reason she would run for state politics is her presence actually would have made a huge difference in 2017 had she won in 2015. PHON probably would have made a 1998 style breakthrough in 2017 (like some polls said it would happen) but they lose momentum and lost Buderim (although technically it was LNP held due to turncoat Steve Dickson) and they failed to take key regional QLD seats like Maryborough, Keppel, etc and even Ipswich with Malcolm Roberts.

    Would Hanson quit her senate career or risk it to give One Nation possibly 5-10 seats and potentially cost the LNP a working majority meaning Crisafulli will need to rely on One Nation votes on various pieces of legislation? I think she would, but it is a huge gamble which is why she won’t do it.

  2. I doubt Hanson would give up her Senate seat, with 4 years to go, to run in the QLD state election. It wouldn’t be worth the risk.

    Her persona and her party and inextricably linked. She is like the de facto state leader already and has a personal profile in Lockyer, Scenic Rim and Ipswich among others. Running at the state level won’t give PHON a boost, though I’m sure she is campaigning for her party already.

    One Nation polled strongly in 2017 but only won a seat. They were probably a few hundred votes short of one or two other seats. Back then, there was no viable post-Newman opposition and One Nation took votes from the LNP.
    I don’t see PHON gaining a seat this election.

  3. “It wouldn’t be worth the risk.”

    You assume that she wants to stay in the Senate. There’s been a lot of rumour that she’s sick of the Senate – she’s pretty much irrelevant in terms of legislation now.

    There’s plenty of examples where a politician is sick of their current job and runs for a different job with a higher level of difficulty as part of the process of quitting their old job, but they probably would have quit the old job anyway. Lee Rhiannon and Jonno Sri come to mind.

    If Hanson is sick of being a senator and is going to retire anyway, then the danger of no longer being an MP won’t stop her running for state politics. Whether she’d want to be a state MP is another question.

  4. @Votante One Nation would’ve won Logan in 2017 if the LNP didn’t preference the ALP above ONP in that seat. They also came fairly close to winning Maryborough, Keppel and Lockyer.

    It would really be an uphill battle if Hanson decides to run for Beaudesert (One Nation have already announced Corey West is running for Lockyer again, plus Hanson lives in the Beaudesert electorate), but is a possibility because they don’t have a candidate yet. It is showing that she’s got less and less enthusiasm for being a senator, she’s been posting a lot less senate speeches on socials lately. Most of her social media is just party press releases.

  5. I did assume she’d want to stay as senator past the QLD election at least and possibly till the term end. There have been rumours that she would leave the senate and probably pass the baton to James Ashby, who is currently candidate in Keppel.

  6. Hanson had a crack at Beaudesert as an Independent in 2009 and didn’t quite make it into 2CP. It was close though but she still would have had a real tough time against the LNP on 2CP. One of the biggest challenges for ONP in safe LNP seats is that they simply struggle in a 2CP contest against LNP. The LNP will generally start with a higher base of first preference votes and then also command greater preferences from ALP and the Greens. As ONP, it’s more beneficial to get out in front of LNP and absorb their preferences in a 2CP against Labor.

    I would still rate ONP with a chance if Hanson was on the ballot in Scenic Rim (which encompasses much of the former Beaudesert division). It would at least be likely that they make it into 2CP, especially in an environment where ALP has weaker primary votes than usual.

  7. @Nether Portal whoops, I meant Scenic Rim.

    I think it’s pretty likely that Hanson will pass her senate seat over to James Ashby, and his current Keppel campaign is just trying to build a profile for himself. I think they might run Wade Rothery (former ONP candidate and now Livingstone shire councillor) at the next election to actually try and win Keppel.

    My other speculation is that her or Macolm Roberts’ senate seat could go to Brettlyn Neal, who works as an assistant to Hanson, and has moved from Cook to Logan (presumably to run in a seat with a higher One Nation vote).

  8. @AA yeah I’d say Pauline will’ve retired by then so James Ashby would take her Senate spot.


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