Sandgate – Queensland 2024

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  1. Minster and MP for Sandgate Stirling Hinchliffe has announced he will retire at the next election. I can’t see anything but a Labor retain. The LNP may have a crack at neighboring seat of Redcliffe but this seat is Labor safe judging by the margin.

  2. Its been reported Stirling Hinchliffe is expected to be succeeded as Labor candidate for Sandgate by Bisma Asif, former Young Labor president and current policy adviser for federal Aged Care Minister Anika Wells.

  3. Bisma Asif would be off CALD background and maybe Muslim by her name. Labor should look at selecting CALD candidates in Inala, Woodridge etc as well longer term.

  4. Absolutely agree @Nimalan. I’m surprised they didn’t choose someone of CALD background in Inala. Would love for them to field diverse candidates in Woodridge, Toohey, Mansfield and Inala when the sitting members retire.

  5. @ A A
    Yes Inala was a missed opportunity. Good point about the Toohey, Mansfield. Maybe even Jordan as there is a growing South Asian community in Greater Springfield. BCC is also important so Morrooka, Forest Lake should be represented longer term by a CALD member.

  6. Call me crazy but I think this will swing violently against Labor, at least enough to make it a marginal Labor seat.

  7. Predictions:

    LNP: 41.2% (+14.4%)
    Labor: 32.0% (–22.2%)
    Greens: 13.7% (+1.9%)
    One Nation: 6.3% (+1.9%)

    Labor: 50.6% (–16.7%)
    LNP: 49.3% (+16.7%)

    Not sure why, but something tells me this is swinging big (in saying that I do know some people who live in Sandgate itself). But I think Labor will narrowly hold on.

  8. @Furtive Lawngnome as I’ve stated before: opinion polling, historical trends, federal trends, knowledge from locals I know (where possible) and of course my own knowledge. Obviously my predictions won’t be 100% correct and some may be way off but they are based on factual information.

    I know at least seven people in the seat of Sandgate and they’re saying there’s a growing anti-Labor sentiment there (the booth in the suburb of Sandgate itself was marginal at the 2019 federal election with the LNP finishing first on primaries but Labor marginally winning the TPP).

  9. from the ward results from Deagon & Braken Ridge I don’t see Labor’s vote drop by more than 12%

  10. @Caleb the LNP disendorsed their candidate in Deagon which is why it swung to Labor. Deagon was the only ward Labor retained with an increased margin in 2024.

  11. Easy Labor retain. Bisma Asif is a star for Labor and will be part of their rebuilding in Opposition.

    Stirling announcing his retirement early has given Bisma a huge headstart to get out and meet the community, alongside the current MP. I actually think Labor will hold this 56-44 TPP.


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