ALP 17.3%
Incumbent MP
Stirling Hinchliffe, since 2015.
Geography
Northern edge of the City of Brisbane. Sandgate covers the Brisbane suburbs of Bracken Ridge, Deagon, Shorncliffe, Sandgate, Brighton, Taigum, Fitzgibbon and parts of Bald Hills.
The seat of Sandgate has existed since 1923, and has been won by Labor at all but one election since 1960.
Harold Dean won the seat off the Liberal Party in 1960. He held the seat until his retirement in 1977.
Nev Warburton won the seat in 1977. He became Leader of the ALP in 1984, and led the party into the 1986 election. He continued as leader until 1988, when he was replaced by Wayne Goss.
When the ALP won power in 1989, and Warburton served as a minister until he retired in 1992.
Gordon Nuttall won the seat in 1992. He became a minister in the Beattie government in 2001 and served in the ministry until 2005. In 2005, he was investigated for giving a false answer to a Parliamentary committee. He retired in 2006, and resigned from the party shortly before the election, facing the prospect of expulsion.
Nuttall was later convicted of numerous corruption charges in 2009 and 2010, and is serving a seven-year prison sentence.
Vicky Darling held Sandgate for two terms from 2006 to 2012, and served as a minister from 2011 to 2012.
In 2012, Darling was defeated by LNP candidate Kerry Millard. Millard held the seat for one term, losing in 2015 to Labor’s Stirling Hinchliffe. Hinchliffe was re-elected in 2017 and 2020.
Candidates
Sitting Labor MP Stirling Hinchliffe is not running for re-election.
Assessment
Sandgate is a safe Labor seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Stirling Hinchliffe | Labor | 17,777 | 54.6 | +5.4 |
| Clark Siemsen | Liberal National | 8,712 | 26.8 | +3.5 |
| Miree Le Roy | Greens | 3,825 | 11.7 | -0.9 |
| Rodney Miles | One Nation | 1,693 | 5.2 | -9.8 |
| Todd Milham | Independent | 558 | 1.7 | +1.7 |
| Informal | 908 | 2.7 |
2020 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Stirling Hinchliffe | Labor | 21,916 | 67.3 | +3.8 |
| Clark Siemsen | Liberal National | 10,649 | 32.7 | -3.8 |
Booths in Sandgate have been divided into three areas: north-east, south-east and west. The west makes up a majority of the seat’s population.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 67.4% in the south to 70.8% in the west.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 11.9% in the west to 17.4% in the south-east.
| Voter group | GRN prim % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| West | 11.9 | 70.8 | 6,331 | 19.4 |
| South-East | 17.4 | 67.4 | 2,107 | 6.5 |
| North-East | 16.3 | 68.5 | 1,798 | 5.5 |
| Pre-poll | 10.6 | 67.1 | 14,258 | 43.8 |
| Other votes | 11.1 | 64.5 | 8,071 | 24.8 |
Election results in Sandgate at the 2020 Queensland state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal National Party and the Greens.
Minster and MP for Sandgate Stirling Hinchliffe has announced he will retire at the next election. I can’t see anything but a Labor retain. The LNP may have a crack at neighboring seat of Redcliffe but this seat is Labor safe judging by the margin.
Its been reported Stirling Hinchliffe is expected to be succeeded as Labor candidate for Sandgate by Bisma Asif, former Young Labor president and current policy adviser for federal Aged Care Minister Anika Wells.
Bisma Asif has been announced as Labor candidate for this seat.
@A A part of the quotas I assume.
Anyway happy Easter everyone!
Bisma Asif would be off CALD background and maybe Muslim by her name. Labor should look at selecting CALD candidates in Inala, Woodridge etc as well longer term.
Absolutely agree @Nimalan. I’m surprised they didn’t choose someone of CALD background in Inala. Would love for them to field diverse candidates in Woodridge, Toohey, Mansfield and Inala when the sitting members retire.
@ A A
Yes Inala was a missed opportunity. Good point about the Toohey, Mansfield. Maybe even Jordan as there is a growing South Asian community in Greater Springfield. BCC is also important so Morrooka, Forest Lake should be represented longer term by a CALD member.
Call me crazy but I think this will swing violently against Labor, at least enough to make it a marginal Labor seat.
Predictions:
LNP: 41.2% (+14.4%)
Labor: 32.0% (–22.2%)
Greens: 13.7% (+1.9%)
One Nation: 6.3% (+1.9%)
TPP:
Labor: 50.6% (–16.7%)
LNP: 49.3% (+16.7%)
Not sure why, but something tells me this is swinging big (in saying that I do know some people who live in Sandgate itself). But I think Labor will narrowly hold on.
nether portal how do you arrive at these figures exactly?
@Furtive Lawngnome as I’ve stated before: opinion polling, historical trends, federal trends, knowledge from locals I know (where possible) and of course my own knowledge. Obviously my predictions won’t be 100% correct and some may be way off but they are based on factual information.
I know at least seven people in the seat of Sandgate and they’re saying there’s a growing anti-Labor sentiment there (the booth in the suburb of Sandgate itself was marginal at the 2019 federal election with the LNP finishing first on primaries but Labor marginally winning the TPP).
from the ward results from Deagon & Braken Ridge I don’t see Labor’s vote drop by more than 12%
@Caleb the LNP disendorsed their candidate in Deagon which is why it swung to Labor. Deagon was the only ward Labor retained with an increased margin in 2024.
Easy Labor retain. Bisma Asif is a star for Labor and will be part of their rebuilding in Opposition.
Stirling announcing his retirement early has given Bisma a huge headstart to get out and meet the community, alongside the current MP. I actually think Labor will hold this 56-44 TPP.
With the retirement of Stirling Hinchcliffe and the situation in Queensland, this could be very close.
The LNP website says the candidate says that Chris Mangan is running as the LNP candidate for Sandgate.
Labor hold probably but would have been more certain is Councilor Cassidy had been the Labor candidate.