Nicklin – Queensland 2024

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  1. If there was one seat that was the biggest shock on election night that changed hands it was this seat. I know from a good source that Labor didn’t put any resources into this seat before the election. It was reported Labor sent out scrutineers from head office the next day after the election when it looked like Labor were in a chance of winning.

    So why was this seat overlooked? Because there was a presumption that One Nation voters would just return to the LNP fold. But Pauline Hanson comments being against the border closures alienated elderly voters that were most at risk with the pandemic. And with the LNP giving mixed signals on the border closures those votes instead went to the incumbent Labor government as Annastacia Palaszczuk was more trusted on the issue.

    I read the previous LNP member Marty Hunt said he would contest the seat. But there has been no mention from the LNP of a candidate. This seat would have been likely won by Labor in the Peter Beattie years if independent MP Peter Wellington hadn’t been the member. The fact Wellington held it all those years and also the Sunshine Coast known to be conservative probably created a false narrative that the seat was unwinnable for Labor.

  2. Why does Frank Nicklin get a seat named after him but not other premiers such as Joh? Joh was much more significant as he served even longer than Nicklin. A think a seat of Goss as well is needed.

    Nicklin is almost close to 0% chance of Labor holding, even if they got Kevin Rudd to run here. Labor will only win this again when they get Beattieslides of 2001 and 2004. This seat isn’t “safe-safe” but you can’t expect Labor to hold or win in a tight statewide election, and if the next couple of QLD elections are tight, (especially if the LNP narrowly win in 2024 which seems likely) and then a tough re-election in 2028 if the LNP turn out unpopular, but Labor will rather target seats like Clayfield, Everton and Chatsworth and try to sandbag the fraser coast seats of Maryborough and Hervey Bay.

  3. Joh was a kleptocratic little toad who had protesters beaten up, rigged elections and resigned in disgrace. I and many others would be aghast at him having anything named after him, except perhaps a sewer.

    It’d be nice to name Goss’ old seat of Logan after him though. It doesn’t cover any of the major centres of the eponymous city, and Patrick Logan was infamously cruel and abusive to convicts.

  4. Former LNP MP for Nicklin Marty Hunt has been preselected to recontest the seat of Nicklin. Hunt had indicated in the media he intended to recontest the seat when he lost it in 2020. Incumbent Labor MP for Nicklin Robert Skelton has got a very difficult task holding his seat on the current state wide polling. LNP won’t win government if they don’t regain a seat like Nicklin. Particularly when other seats such as (Hinchinbrook, Noosa, Mairwar etc) have a forcefield around them through minor parties and independents.

  5. Easy gain for the LNP with a double digit swing. Rob Skelton has had a very underwhelming first (and only) term in office and was extremely lucky to win in 2020.


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