Mulgrave – Queensland 2024

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  1. How did Labor survive here in 2012? Yes, the conservative vote was split almost 50-50 between the LNP and KAP. Was that it? Or were there other factors?

  2. No Stew, this is Mulgrave in Queensland. The Victorian Mulgrave by-election has already occurred, and, as you said, there was a swing from the ALP.

  3. @nicholas its a father son seat. warren pitt first contested in 1986 won in 1989 lost in 1995 again in 1998, retook the seat in the 1998 by election, passed it to his son curtis pitt in 2009. my guess is the personal vote held up.
    @stew yep sure will i reckon around 10%. 😀

  4. @Nicholas, yes in 2012 the vote was almost a three-way tie between ALP, LNP and KAP.

    Queensland still had Optional Preferential Voting then, so the KAP and LNP basically took votes from each other and allowed Labor to win with like 34% of the vote and very minimal favourable preferences.

  5. In 2012, there was OPV as Mark Mulclair mentioned. There was also momentum behind the newly-formed KAP as a non-Labor alternative to make gains in north and western QLD. Many KAP voters either didn’t send preferences or didn’t take them too seriously, perhaps because they thought KAP would win or as a rejection of the two-party duopoly.

    I feel that typically second-generation MPs do quite well and have a strong personal vote given their surname but it might also be because they normally run in safe seats.

  6. Father son must have been a factor in a personal vote in 2012 because excluding that election, this seat is actually a bellwether.

  7. –Candidate Update–
    While researching information for Cook, I came across an independent for here.

    IND (Yodie Batzke) who has set up a Facebook Page (Batzke2024Mulgrave – if you wish to search)

    Yodie contested Cook (IND) at the 2020 State Election [3.86%], QLD Senate (UAP) at the 2019 Federal Election as no.3 on the ticket [Group 3.52%], Leichhardt (IND) at the 2010 Federal Election [2.13%]. Also backed the no campaign for the Voice Referendum.

  8. Super close race and although I think Labor will win, I think it’ll be by 51% TPP. On 12%, the margin is quite inflated and if Curtis decides to retire at the last minute, this could easily fall to the LNP.

    The LNP has not yet selected a candidate and much like Mackay, i think it’s a missed opportunity for them to capitalise on the expected gains in regional Queensland.

  9. @PRP 50/50 given they are facing a 9% swing that isnt always uniform. miles is deeply unpopular outside of brisbane and i think this will go. the only seat north of brisbane they have any hope of holding is Gladstone. Maybe cook given the strong alp vote but i think thats gone too as i think the combined KAP/ONP/LNP will outweigh labor on the 2pp

  10. Yes, very possible. Labor’s vote will be in freefall here – but just can’t work out why the LNP hasn’t got someone here yet?

  11. One thing I note is that in 2012, the swing against Labor on 2pp was the lowest in Cook, then Mulgrave (for Labor-held seats).
    (This may have been because of a combo of Katter and OPV though)
    Maybe Labor still can retain one or both though I still expect them to fall.

  12. @leon yes OPV and the fact KAP were in the mix did hurt the lnp with FPV the lnp should easily pick these up

  13. I wonder how the LNP still don’t have a candidate for this seat? I’m starting to think this will be a very close Labor retain.


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