Mount Ommaney – Queensland 2024

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  1. This seat could come down to the wire, but I expect the margin will be enough for Labor to retain (roughly 2% is my guess).

    It’s an area the LNP do exceptionally well at in both Council and to a lesser extent, Federally.

    Labor’s Jess Pugh will be part of their recovery in Opposition and I’d expect will be in Shadow Cabinet.

  2. This seat will be interesting one because in the past its a traditional bell weather seat. Yes, the margin is 12.6% and yes Labor is polling worse in the regions then in Brisbane. But when the pendulum swings it swings. The LNP found that out in the Queensland election in 2015, in the seat of Bundaberg, despite holding the seat with a 19% margin. The seat had been a traditional Labor seat, and there has been significant time between Dr Death issue with voters.

    The LNP have selected canidates in similar seats of Mansfield, Aspley, and Springwood. But they haven’t chosen one yet for Mount Ommaney. Makes you wonder if their enthusiasm is wavering for this seat despite the strong position on the statewide polling. This seat will be a intriguing one to watch out for on election night.

  3. PN, On the issue of Bundaberg, that is still a conservative-leaning seat, It always leaned right relative to the state. Although Labor would’ve held in 2006 without Dr Death, it probably still would’ve been marginal and would’ve been lost in 2009. So the seat has certainly trended away from Labor and they will struggle to win it in future outside of strong wins.

    I wouldn’t read too much about late candidate selection, it actually could indicate they are looking for a stronger candidate to take on this seat, so finding the right candidate is important if this seat is going to be close.

    Someone better ring Steven Miles about the recent poll and encourage him to step down as he was the wrong choice for leader.

    I actually know someone who is still registered to vote in this seat despite living here in Melbourne.

  4. @Daniel T one can change leaders, but not the electorate. Sometimes leadership changes don’t do anything and they may even make it worse. If they change now Queensland Labor will be seen as unfit to govern and unstable internally and Labor’ll be destroyed in October. Dare I say they may only hold as few as five seats if they change leaders again.

    It’s official: Labor seriously cannot win the election. It will be an LNP landslide and Labor will struggle to win 10 seats. 57% TPP statewide is very high. That’s what Michael Gunner got when he won a big landslide in 2016, and it was what Mark McGowan got in his first big landslide in 2017.

  5. Maybe my predictions weren’t so stupid after all.

    By the way, 57% TPP for the LNP is a 10.2% swing to the LNP.

  6. Strong candidate selected by the LNP yesterday, small business owner Lisa Baillie.

    The LNP have announced female candidates in over 60% of seats and over 40% in target seats. Has to be a first.

    They’re taking every seat seriously from what I can see.

    I still expect Labor to retain this, but could be one of the biggest swings against Labor (as it was in 2012).

  7. PRP, I believe the Labor margin is inflated given that the suburbs in this seat seem to be somewhat conservative leaning similar to suburbs like Padstow and Revesby in Sydney. The overlapping council ward (Jamboree) is also traditionally seen as safe for the LNP.

    Based on these factors, together with a strong candidate for the LNP (who is probably in a similar mould to former MP Tarnya Smith, also a business owner) makes this seat a likely pickup and corresponding loss for Labor.

  8. At the Fed election Labor got 46% in QLD and still won all the booths within Mount Ommaney, and got double digit swings in a lot of the booths. Labor actually didn’t win a lot of the booths here even in the 2007 election. So I do think this area may be drifting towards Labor. As of right now I’d predict Labor to win here, but if the polls continue to worse Libs will win here.


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