Miller – Queensland 2024

With Bailey having quit as Transport Minister (likely jumping before he was pushed, according to the newspapers) and things not looking great for Labor in opinion polls, could this seat be less safe than last election’s results suggest? It did fall in the 2012 blue tide, but nowadays the threat to Labor in Brisbane has a different colour. There’s no overlap between this seat and the federal seat of Griffith, but given how far south the Greens were able to achieve sizeable swings in 2022, you’d imagine they’ll have their eyes on Miller, now that Bailey is in a weaker position. It’s ambitious, but so was the idea of defeating Jackie Trad in South Brisbane.

This is a target seat for the Greens but it’s just too much of a stretch. I can see a scenario whereby the LNP finish third, Greens second and Labor first on primaries.

If that eventuates, assuming the LNP preferences Labor ahead of the Greens, it’ll be a very easy win for Mark Bailey. If they want to shake things up and make it tough for him, they could opt to preference the Greens here.

Either way, any movement in the Greens primary vote will be at the expense of Labor.

PRP, why do you believe the statewide swing against Labor will not eventuate enough here to knock them out of first on primary?

@PRP I agree, too much of a stretch for The Greens this time around. Mark Bailey should retain this given his popularity as a local MP, the buffer between ALP and LNP primary votes and Greens preferences flowing strongly towards him. The only problem will be when Bailey retires.

@Wilson, I just don’t think it’ll be as pronounced in inner electorates, especially ones more left of centre (like South Brisbane, Miller or Bulimba). As long as Mark Bailey finishes top 2, Labor will hold this

Yes agree, the swing from the ALP to the LNP will be less pronounced in the inner city, especially because Miles (being a left faction leader and environmentalist) is a lot more popular in these areas.

I wouldn’t exactly call Miles popular in the inner city. By and large, voters do not care what faction of the Labor Party a politician is from, even left of centre voters. That sort of thing only interests political nerds like everyone commenting on this website. What a left of centre voter does care about, however, is whether new coal mines and gas wells are opened. Labor has been trumpeting their record of doing just that in Central Queensland, while also trying to pretend that’s not the case in inner Brisbane electorates.

It’s possible my own bias is creeping into this, but I can’t see inner Brisbane voters as regarding Miles as being significantly more trustworthy and genuine than voters elsewhere. Many of them will hold their nose and vote for Labor regardless, but I think many others will choose the more progressive option(s) on the ballot. This still may not be enough for Miller to fall this time, but I don’t think it’s impossible either. Bailey’s star has fallen a lot and I think he’ll be gone by the end of the 2028 election.

I think the inner city seats will have a small ALP to LNP swing and a large ALP to GRN swing. Greens can work the same magic as Maiwar to genuinely flip LNP voters left – haven’t written off Clayfield and Moggill – but Greens will mainly benefit from similar dynamics as the BCC election and winning seats off Labor by pushing them into 3rd.

That could still see the Greens win Miller – the path to victory here being Labor coming 3rd instead of 1st.

@Wilson ok calling him popular in the inner city was my mistake. He’s not necessarily popular in the inner city, but he’s not as wildly unpopular as he is in the regions. I’m also not trying to say that voters know about factions, I’m more or less saying that Miles has been more progressive than Palaczuck was. Especially on environmental achievements like the 75% emissions reduction target and protecting channel country. Combine this with the progressive coal royalties and net zero targets that were in place under Palaczuck, which again are more popular in the city than the regions, and this will make ALP more popular in the city. Of course there will likely be a large ALP to GRN swing in these inner seats.

The LNP website says Clio Padayachee is their candidate for Miller, though there’s no photo on the website so I have no idea if this is a man or a woman or what this person looks like, but he/she appears to have a South Asian name (sounds like a South Indian, Sri Lankan or Maldivian name).

@ NP
I’m thinking female;- https://www.britannica.com/topic/Clio-Greek-mythology

She has a Facebook and instagram. There is no way she is winning this seat though.

@ NP
It will not be Maldivian as Maldives is a 100% Muslim country so will be South Indian or Sri Lankan by the sounds of it.

@Nimalan the Maldivian census wants people to think they’re 100% Muslim (despite being quite a Western and socially liberal country by Islamic standards) but they aren’t. They’re 98-99% Muslim though. I think parts of the Bible are even translated into their local language.

My guess was because the Dhivehi (Maldivian) language looks a bit like that when transliterated, as do languages such as Tamil, Kannada, Telugu and Sinhala.

@ NP
It is quite possible that there some Maldivians do not practice Islam but the country never really has ethnic or religious minorities mainly due to its geography unlike pretty much all other South Asian countries. The other thing is Maldivians would have Arabic sounding names just like Muslims in Sri Lanka and South India do, which is why i dont think she will Maldivian plus there is not really a significant Maldivian community in Australia. Interestingly, Maldives recently banned Israeli tourists but then they started to flock to placed like Goa and Kerala in India instead.

@Nimalan true and interesting.

The Maldives is an archipelago far away from everywhere except India and Sri Lanka yet their language’s loan words mostly come from either English or Arabic (the latter mostly for words used in the Quran or in Islamic contexts). Their writing system is based off the Arabic script.

Interestingly in Dhivehi the word ‘A‘lāhu meaning God or Allah is written الله (the same way it would be written in Arabic), because local mosques refuse to write it in its Dhivehi form, އައްލާހު.

Labor hold. The swing to the LNP won’t be as large as the statewide average. The Greens seem to be focusing on McConnel or Cooper.

Miller was strongly Yes at the referendum, interesting if Labor drops to 3rd place.
https://results.aec.gov.au/29581/Website/ReferendumDivisionResults-29581-173.htm

Ever since Mark Bailey was booted out of Cabinet by his Left faction “ally” Steven Miles on his ascension to the Premiership, the former Transport and Main Roads Minister has had too much time on his hands.

Bailey was caught attempting to peel a Greens “build public housing” sticker off a noticeboard at the Annerley Junction Fest last weekend, before being spotted using his parliament-branded tent at pre-poll, an act strictly prohibited by parliamentary clerk Neil Laurie.

I think this is a marked Greens target (though unlikely they will win) because they want to test the waters for their campaign in the federal seat of Moreton. Moreton is the next most winnable QLD seat, especially as its long-time Labor member is retiring, though I also doubt they can flip the seat.

Before anyone asks it would be silly for me to work out BCC results here because of Nicole Johnston, the independent ex-LNP member for Tennyson (the ward that covers most of Miller).

But federal results I can absolutely do.

Including the results from the Rockies PPVC (but excluding postals), Labor got 60.9% of the TPP against the LNP in 2022. Miller is entirely located within Moreton, which has always been Labor vs LNP, so I’m unsure of what the Greens vs LNP TCP is.

*results from the Rocklea PPVC

@Nether Portal I used the BCC Mayoral votes as reference

@Caleb I prefer to look at council votes because it’s a vote on the same thing (i.e a member for a single-member seat) whereas the mayoral vote is for the Lord Mayor who is a person. Maybe if Australia had a President though I would use that as a comparison though.

This is what I meant by The Greens not having any real monetunm in terms of winning Moorooka Moreton or Miller. Sure they might of gained swings in various elections but that dosen’t mean you have a realistic chance of winning if you are way behind. On current votes the LNP is still the main challenger at 34.5% Labor on 37.5% and The Greens on 23.6% that should drop once all votes have counted.

50 cents fares $1300 off power bills free lunch tafe and kindy all paid for with highest mining royalties in the world ultimately stole the Greens thunder. Whilst they will hold Maiwar they should of paid more attention to the electorates they held not the ones they didn’t really have a chance of winning. Any party that takes there electorate for granted in Queensland will get punished at the ballot box. The Greens have learnt this lesson the hard way.

The theory that Greens could win here was primarily based on ALP collapse scenarios. Something like 2012 (or approaching it) with Greens taking their own bite out of the Labor vote on their way down.

Labor’s vote held up too well vs LNP especially in Brisbane.