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Mentioned this in the Fadden By-Election thread but Bert Van Manen has erected fresh billboards in Beenleigh (Macalister) and Meadowbrook (Waterford). Essentially either end of Forde. This suggests that the LNP sense weakness in Forde’s narrow margin. Forde and Longman are likely the first two Queensland divisions to fall from LNP to the ALP at a federal election. This likelihood is heightened given Albanese’s post-election honeymoon period. However this outdoor media might also be a play in Macalister to boost the “Van Manen” profile. Bert’s wife Judi Van Manen is shaping up to be a perennial candidate in the state division of Macalister.
Macalister in its short-lived existence has been fairly safe for Labor but the state divisions that have encompassed Beenleigh in the past were notionally better for the Coalition.
Fadden By-Election again is worth mentioning as it is an adjoining division to Forde.
What’s funny is that there is a town in Queensland called Macalister but it’s not in this electorate, it’s a rural town in Warrego on the state level and Maranoa federally.
Yeah, not really. The bigger issue is Theodore is a main town in central QLD (more notably than Macalister), but a seat on the Gold Coast takes the name (after Red Ted).
Fadden may offer suggestions in Macalister but where the results will be a key indicator is Coomera.
This is pretty common at all levels of government. The Division of Moreton doesn’t have a coastline on Moreton Bay and doesn’t overlap with the Moreton Bay Regional Council. Kooyong isn’t in the Division of Kooyong. The Western Sydney Aerotropolis has been named Bradfield, but it’s nowhere near the Division of Bradfield. And I’m sure there are many other examples.
There are several places named after Arthur Macalister. E.g. Macalister Range near Cairns. He was a former premier. Interestingly, his constituency was Ipswich – several electorates away. I think his name is used for the wrong electorate given that he wasn’t connected with the area.
Given the continuing speculation about a potential Double-Dissolution, I wonder if this outdoor-media play throughout Forde is the LNP hedging their bets on an early Federal election being called and getting some material out there now to sandbag their marginal contests.
SEQ Observer, if an early election is called then it will complicate matters because three states (NSW, Victoria and WA) all need to complete redistributions due to changed house seat numbers.
Otherwise, a complex ‘mini redistribution’ process will have to be applied if the redistributions are incomplete unless Albanese manages to trigger and call one just prior to the July/August determination date.
Another toss up and one that could come down to the wire. Labor starts favourites to hold Macalister, but it’s not a foregone conclusion that they do.
The demographics of Macalister are definitely favourable to Labor and the local MP seems popular.
I also have this as a toss up, lean Labor. I think this is the type of division that would be otherwise favourable to Labor but vulnerable to swing hard when swings are on. It’s hard to trace the recent history of this division because parts of it have been fragmented between Coomera, Albert, Waterford, Springwood and Redlands within the last 10 years. Its two contests have also been complicated by the presence of two fairly strong independents. The most well-known being Johnston in 2017 who was less than 2% margin away from entering TPP. This makes it hard to gauge what the TPP would be in a more typical contest.