ALP 13.1%
Incumbent MP
Shane King, since 2017. Previously member for Kallangur 2015-2017.
Geography
South-East Queensland. Kurwongbah covers southern parts of Moreton Bay LGA. It covers the suburbs of Petrie, Kurwongbah, Burpengary, Possum Rise, Joyner, Lawnton and parts of Narangba and Bray Park.
History
Kurwongbah was created in 2017, primarily as a replacement for Kallangur, a seat created at the 1992 election. It was won in 1992 by Ken Hayward. He had previously held the seat of Caboolture since 1986. He was appointed as a minister in the Goss Labor government in 1991, and served as a minister until the government lost power in 1996.
Hayward retired in 2009, and was succeeded by former union organiser Mary-Anne O’Neill, running for Labor.
In 2012, O’Neill was defeated by the LNP’s Trevor Ruthenberg. Ruthenberg held Kallangur until 2015, when he lost to Labor’s Shane King.
There was another seat which previously carried the name of Kurwongbah from 1992 until 2009. This seat was always won by Labor. Labor’s Margaret Woodgate switched to this seat when Pine Rivers was abolished in 1992, after holding the previous seat for one term since 1989. Woodgate retired in 1997, and the ensuing by-election was won by Labor candidate Linda Lavarch. She held Kurwongbah until the seat was abolished in 2009.
Labor’s Shane King was re-elected to represent the restored seat of Kurwongbah in 2017, and again in 2020.
Assessment
Kurwongbah is a safe Labor seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Shane King | Labor | 16,243 | 51.8 | +10.4 |
| Kerry Petrus | Liberal National | 8,460 | 27.0 | +2.5 |
| Kim Attrill | One Nation | 2,834 | 9.0 | -12.8 |
| Earl Snijders | Greens | 2,317 | 7.4 | -1.1 |
| Heather Dwane | Animal Justice | 787 | 2.5 | +2.5 |
| Thor Prohaska | Independent | 721 | 2.3 | -1.5 |
| Informal | 1,192 | 3.7 |
2020 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Shane King | Labor | 19,804 | 63.1 | +6.2 |
| Kerry Petrus | Liberal National | 11,558 | 36.9 | -6.2 |
Booths in Kurwongbah have been divided into north and south.
Labor won 64.3% of the two-party-preferred vote in both areas.
| Voter group | ON prim % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| North | 9.6 | 64.3 | 4,897 | 15.6 |
| South | 8.2 | 64.3 | 3,704 | 11.8 |
| Pre-poll | 9.3 | 62.1 | 11,827 | 37.7 |
| Other votes | 8.8 | 63.4 | 10,934 | 34.9 |
Election results in Kurwongbah at the 2020 Queensland state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal National Party and One Nation.
This is my local seat and I cannot see it changing hands. Unlike the rest of Moreton Bay, Kurwongbah will vote Labor, although I’m anticipating a swing against Labor of between 9-12% making it very marginal.
Shane King is a very lacklustre and uninspiring MP who we barely see, other than his billboards. The LNP have run some pretty average candidates in the past few elections – contributing to the margin blowing out for Labor.
LNP have announced Tanya McKewen as the candidate for this seat
The Greens have nominated Jordon Martin the candidate for this seat in early september.
This is my local seat, from what I’m picking up this will go down to the wire, I’m predicting the LNP to win this seat, other seats in the area my predictions are:
Murrumba – LNP gain
Redcliffe – LNP gain
Morayfield – ALP retain
Pine Rivers – LNP gain
Bancroft – too close to call at this stage
Pumicestone – LNP gain
@Trump 24 agree with you on all actually except Murrumba. I’ve had a few people laugh at me for suggesting Redcliffe falls but I think it’s an absolute moral it does. BTW I am not ruling out Labor losing Morayfield, it has similar vibes and demographics to seats like Pine Rivers, also the hospital is a mess.
@Feel the burn, your right, Morayfield could fall I just feel the margin is just a bit big plus Mark Ryan is very popular in the Caboolture area, in regards to Murrumba I spoke to Gary Fulton last week and he said he gets the feeling that Murrumba is going to be very close and he is getting good feedback from doorknocking in the strong Labor voting areas in the electorate
@Trump 24 You’d be hard-pressed to find a candidate who wouldn’t say the exact same thing in any seat, regardless of the expected outcome.
My HTV for my seat
1. LNP
2. ONP
3. FF
4. ALP
5. AJP
6. Greens
My gut feel from early voting is the LNP will win this seat, looks like it will flip with an estimated swing of 17%