ALP 5.6%
Incumbent MP
Brittany Lauga, since 2015.
Geography
North Queensland. Keppel covers regional areas along the coast to the north of Rockhampton, including Yeppoon, northern suburbs of Rockhampton, and the Keppel islands.
History
Keppel was first contested at the 1992 election. A former seat with the same name had existed from 1912 to 1960. The current incarnation was held by the National Party until 2004 and then was held by Labor until 2012. The seat has alternated since then.
The seat was first won in 1992 by National Party MP Vince Lester. He had previously held the seats of Belyando and Peak Downs, having first been elected in 1974. Lester had served as a minister in the National Party government from 1983 until 1989.
Lester retired in 2004, and Keppel was won by ALP candidate Paul Hoolihan. Hoolihan won re-election in 2006 and 2009.
In 2012, Hoolihan was defeated by LNP candidate Bruce Young. Young held the seat for one term, and lost in 2015 to Labor’s Brittany Lauga. Lauga has been re-elected twice, in 2017 and 2020.
- Nigel Hutton (Liberal National)
- Roger McWhinney (Family First)
- James Ashby (One Nation)
- Clancy Mullbrick (Greens)
- Brittany Lauga (Labor)
- Petrina Murphy (Independent)
Assessment
Keppel is a marginal Labor seat, but the LNP has only managed to win it once in the last two decades, in 2012.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Brittany Lauga | Labor | 14,969 | 46.2 | +3.2 |
| Adrian De Groot | Liberal National | 9,576 | 29.6 | +4.7 |
| Wade Rothery | One Nation | 5,069 | 15.7 | -9.8 |
| Clancy Mullbrick | Greens | 1,291 | 4.0 | -2.6 |
| Jimmy Dockery | Legalise Cannabis | 862 | 2.7 | +2.7 |
| Paula Ganfield | Informed Medical Options | 430 | 1.3 | +1.3 |
| Nikki Smeltz | United Australia | 192 | 0.6 | +0.6 |
| Informal | 973 | 2.9 |
2020 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Brittany Lauga | Labor | 18,018 | 55.6 | |
| Adrian De Groot | Liberal National | 14,371 | 44.4 |
Booths in Keppel have been divided into three areas. Polling places in the Rockhampton urban area have been grouped together, with the remainder split into central and north.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in three out of four areas, ranging from 50.3% in the south to 54.6% in Nambour. The LNP won 50.2% in the west, but also won the pre-poll vote and other vote categories.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 12.8% in the west to 15.3% in the north.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in every area, ranging from 52.9% in the north to 61.2% in Rockhampton.
One Nation came third, with a primary vote ranging from 13.6% in Rockhampton to 19.6% in the centre of the seat.
| Voter group | ON prim % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Rockhampton | 13.6 | 61.2 | 4,057 | 12.5 |
| North | 16.3 | 52.9 | 3,351 | 10.3 |
| Central | 19.6 | 56.3 | 2,217 | 6.8 |
| Pre-poll | 16.3 | 55.0 | 15,773 | 48.7 |
| Other votes | 13.9 | 54.9 | 6,991 | 21.6 |
Election results in Keppel at the 2020 Queensland state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal National Party and One Nation.
Is this prediction based on polling or random? I don’t think the swing against Labor will be as big as 27.8%. Especially with Brittany Laura’s incumbency. Probably between 10% and 20% away from Labor.
@AA it’s based on polling, historical trends, federal results and random guesses. It will indeed be a huge swing though. I did of course need all the percentages to add up to 100% so some numbers are inflated or deflated. But Labor is in deep trouble and could fall to third.
Yes there is a danger of Labor being in third. They are in deep trouble in seats like this, especially Keppel because of its high existing One Nation vote and the money going into James Ashby’s campaign.
Truly awful what happened to Brittany Lauga earlier this week. I hope justice is served.
(If you don’t know and you’re Googling, TW: SA.)
Yes that’s just awful. Hope she’s alright and justice is served.
Have enjoyed reading all the comments on this thread, but once again, I must say I do not think Nether Portal is being realistic here.
Whilst I think the LNP will win, it will be a lot closer than 73% TPP. I think Brittany Lauga is a popular MP and the recent controversy reported in the media (I won’t repeat) will add further complexity to the results.
My primary predictions are LNP 39%, Labor 29%, One Nation 21%, Greens 7%. Two-party preferred will be about 55% LNP.
The LNP have a great candidate here with a significant profile and might even be in line for early promotion.
Agree PRP, this will probably be a pickup/gain for the LNP but is considered their second tier of targets (seats currently rated as close calls where Labor is still going to allocate resources to defend, unlike others such as Hervey Bay which are probably seen as write offs).
I don’t think LNP will score a swing of over 25% nor do I think Labor will finish third. I can agree on LNP winning this albeit with a 10 to 20% swing.
I do also believe that ON will recover their votes. I agree with Wilson’s comment that James Ashby walks and talks like a political operative with self-interests. He also carries a lot of political baggage and is quite gaffe-prone. It remains to be seen how much appeal he will have. Pauline, on the other hand, originally had appeal as someone who was outside the political establishment and from a more humble background.
I expect Labor to finish ahead of ON.
@PRP If One Nation got 21% primary then the LNP would end up with at least 58% TPP, probably about 60%.
I know a few people in Yeppoon and Keppel Sands and they’re saying that people are turning on Labor.
I agree with PRP, Nether Portal is overestimating the swing against Labor. There will not be a 25% swing away from Labor, due to Lauga’s popularity as a local MP. Labor will finish second, and the ON vote is unknown but Ashby seems to be gaining popularity in the local electorate. He’s already putting up signs and has had a lot of social media presence. He even made a theme song for One Nation at the end of his videos! This is miles ahead of other ON candidates who have next to no campaigning. Even their sitting MP Stephen Andrew doesn’t have the glossy videos like Ashby does. Looks like Ashby is putting himself well ahead of everyone else in the party.
@AA there probably won’t be but I really wouldn’t be surprised if there was.
Also I think Stephen Andrew is probably going to lose Mirani but finish second to the LNP. He only won last time because Labor finished first and One Nation finished second (though it was extremely close) so LNP preferences elected him. We know Labor won’t finish first in Mirani so for him to win he has to finish first by a considerable margin. If he finishes second to the LNP or even narrowly ahead of the LNP he’ll lose on Labor/Greens preferences flowing to each other then to the LNP before One Nation. That doesn’t mean he won’t win in 2028, but the mood at the moment is against Labor and it’s mostly going to the LNP. The LNP actually increased their primary vote in Mirani in 2022 while Labor and One Nation decreased theirs so the only reason Steve increased his margin over Labor was because of LNP preferences.
The outcome in Mirani depends on whether the LNP gets in the 2 party count. If that happens, then ONP will lose the seat. If the ALP somehow stays in the 2 party count, then it’s ONP’s to retain.
What’s interesting is that the ONP MP almost acts like an independent – zero One Nation branding on his social media posts, and no mention of the party or Pauline. So he could have a large swing towards him from local MP status/name recognition. If this swing comes from ex LNP voters, then ONP could retain Mirani.
@AA exactly but I don’t think Labor will get in the TCP count. As you correctly pointed out he only holds that seat because Labor is in the TCP count against him.
I think Brittany Lauga would get a sympathy vote for what happened
The alp margin here is 5.6% if things go bad this seat could be lost to the lnp but not onp. Mr Ashby has never contested a parliamentary seat before and also there is still baggage from his time employed by Mr Slipper.
tbh I think this seat is starting to look like a closer race between ONP and LNP. James Ashby is a high profile candidate with lots of campaign funds, a strong social media presence and good media relations. I predict a larger than average swing to One Nation here, probably not enough to beat the LNP but you never know
I spent last week in Keppel.Liberals jhave signage up and Ashby has huge signs up no doubt paid for by other one nation candidates. At Emu Park Markets Greens, ALP & LNP had stalls. Britney Lauga pushing effectively the budget cost of living measures None of them knew me. But campaign in Keppel is far more active than in Brisbane seats. My prediction ALP retain. The seat has changed a lot in last ten years and Vince Lester no longer an influence. No local member could live up to Vince Lester’s continuous campaigning.
Ashby’s signs everywhere. Surprisingly with no Pauline Hanson. No sign of him personally.
@Andrew Jackson, are you THE Andrew Jackson who is standing in the division of Gladstone at this election?
From the time of Mr Lester’s retirement the nature of this seat changed
To a Labor leaning Marginal
I’ve just seen Ashby’s posters today and they aren’t branded in One Nation orange, but instead in dark blue and using seaside imagery. Their logo is hidden in the bottom left corner in a way that made me not even notice it was on there at all initially. I can’t see how they thought this was a good idea, I don’t think people are voting based on him as a person. Just nearby in Rocky David Bond proudly wears his party’s colours and branding, so it’s odd as you get into the outer suburbs on the way to Yeppoon that it disappears entirely.
Anyway, LNP gain. Ashby will probably still be the closest ONP candidate to getting elected, but he’ll fall short and come third just as several of their people elsewhere will.
@Laine so One Nation are using the same tricks as Labor, changing their colours like a chameleon to trick voters. Voters are not stupid, if they want the LNP they’ll vote for the LNP and it’s all but certain that they’ll get the LNP.
@laine maybe ashby should have run in Mirani?
The Ashby affair has not been forgotten and will ensure Ashby comes 3rd of 4th, (Probably 4th).
NP, why do you have Ashby 2nd despite the fact the Ashby affair was quite damaging to him?
Ashbywill probably finish 3rd
@Daniel T because he’s a high-profile and the Ashby affair (assuming you mean the NRA meetings he and Steve Dickson attended in Washington DC which were exposed in an Al Jazeera documentary) was years ago.
@Nether Portal its not just Labor and One Nation who de-brand their signage, the Liberals do it just as much. Have a look at Dave Sharma’s signs at the last election.
@Daniel T Ashby will definitely finish 3rd. An ONP candidate in Central QLD could shoot someone’s dog in broad daylight and still finish ahead of the Greens.
Ashby will finish third.
@John, Ashby lives in Yeppoon in this electorate, not in Mirani. Also, there was a 3 way contest in Mirani last election with three candidates getting a primary of over 25%. Mirani is harder to win for ONP.
Either way Labor can’t win this with the combined lnp/onp vote
Alp retain one must buck the trend
You can’t assume all One Nation voters will automatically preference the LNP. History has proven time and time again that ONP voters are less disciplined with their preferences than, say, the Greens or Labor.
The combined LNP/ONP vote in Keppel in 2020 was marginally less than the ultimate LNP 2PP vote (45.22% v 44.37%). In 2017 the difference was 50.4% v 46.9%, and in 2015 it was 47.43% v 45.2% (Palmer instead of ONP) This indicates to me a sizeable chunk of Keppel voters will happily loan their vote to a third party such as One Nation but wont automatically preference the LNP, as least as strongly as stereotypical analysis might think.
The LNP’s path to victory here is much clearer if they can lead the ALP before the distribution of preferences.
Paths to victory here
LNP:
A. Finish first and win on One Nation preferences.
B. Finish second to Labor and win on One Nation preferences.
C. Finish second to One Nation and win on Labor preferences.
One Nation:
A. Finish first with Labor in second and win on LNP preferences.
B. Narrowly lose to the LNP, claim the result was rigged and then request a recount (probably won’t work and would likely damage the One Nation brand as Trump tactics don’t work in Australia, you will be seen as a bad sport if you don’t concede).
C. Finish ahead of the LNP and Labor win on KAP preferences (this would most likely require the LNP to finish third and KAP fourth).
Labor:
A. Get at least 40% of the primary vote and win on Greens preferences and the small amount of preference leakage from others (virtually impossible).
Overall there are six potential paths for a conservative MP to be elected while there’s only one path for Labor to retain this seat and it’s virtually impossible.
One Nation won’t be winning this seat. They are close, but too far behind, the LNP and Labor to overtake either and make the final two.
The likeliest outcome that you’ve outlined above is A or B for the LNP.
https://www.aeforecasts.com/forecast/2024qld/nowcast spells this out fairly clearly. Even in the event the ALP vote crashes, I doubt One Nation will be the main beneficiary.
This is the only seat Labor holds which isn’t a provincial city seat. Although it does include some of Rockhampton and adjoins Rockhampton
Mirani Burkedin Burnett and Whitsunday are similar but.not held by Labor.
Why is this?
No Vince Lester factor which tilts the seat to.labor
Personal vote of alp mp . How much?
The influence of onp with their “glamour” candidate Ashby.
Is this enough to hold for Labor? I don’t know but I think there is a chance margin 5.6% which is in that key 5 to 10% range.
Brittany Lauga closed her Yeppoon office because her staff were being abused and hasn’t reopened there.
Yeppoon is pretty hardscrabble, if Labor’s lost them, they can’t win Keppel.
Tourism and the future of Great Keppel is also a big issue in Yeppoon and the coastal parts of the seat.
If Ashby has moved there and he’s got a plan for tourism, they’ll give him a go.
Otherwise, it’s going LNP.
Looking at last election approx 24% failed to vote on first preferences for either lnp or alp.
Labor went from 44% to 55% which meant Labor got about 11% from all others. Should onp improve their vote then this preference flow could be higher. Aef projections do not predict the result in individual seats but rather a global figure… even they.predict 52/48 lnp here. It is obvious here that a vote for the lnp is a vote for onp and visa versa. This is a unholy alliance…. I wonder when will the lnp get some courage and refuse to help onp, especially when they run such a candidate as Mr Ashby…..
Ashby is like Trump showing the worst a political system can offer up. He is a pure example of a political operative in trouble re his dealings with.Mr Slipper who was.a previous employer and seeking finance from the gun lobby in.Usa when it was obvious that no funds were available. I can assure all he has no tourism plans and will not be elected here
My earlier post should have said outside s/e Queensland
Can we include and edit provision like in poll bludger..
Sometimes I find I made an error whereby the comment does make complete sense and I would like to be able to correct it
@Mick I doubt you’d get 75 million votes
No path for a labor victory in Keppel either LNP wins on ONP vs Labor or LNP wins on greens and Labor preferences against ONP