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Predictions:
Labor: 34.3% (–33.1%)
LNP: 28.9% (+12.4%)
Greens: 11.41% (+3.7%)
TPP:
Labor: 54.9% (–23.3%)
LNP: 45.1% (+23.3%)
Huge swing just like at the by-election but not enough to win. The loss of Palaszczuk’s personal vote plus the broader statewide swing against Labor is reflected by this. Other random minor party candidates and independents would get less than 5% of the vote each, with the possible exception of Linh Nguyen or Nayda Hernandez should either of them run again (as independents) but even then they would get less than 8% of the vote. The swing is huge but not enough for the LNP to win and Labor should be able to recover from such a big swing in 2028.
Don’t think the swing at the general election will be bigger than the by-election. The 30% swing against Labor at the by-election was worst case scenario for Labor (and even worse than the swing they copped in 2012 at the wipeout election). I think Labor will hold Inala 60-40 TPP, but still a 18% swing from the 2020 election.
The swing margins of a by-election are usually doubled compared to a general election
@Caleb I think the LNP will retain Ipswich West though. Also, my predictions assumed that Labor’s election eve polling was much worse than now.
At the 2011 NSW state election, a landslide for the Coalition, Stuart Ayres (Liberal) won 66.3% of the TPP vote. At the 2010 Penrith state by-election he won 66.5% of the TPP vote. He had 54.0% of the primary vote at the state election and 51.5% of the primary vote at the by-election, so he actually improved his primary vote at the state election by 3.5% despite his TPP vote dropping slightly (though only by 0.2%).
the margin here is wrong??