Inala – Queensland 2024

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  1. Predictions:

    Labor: 34.3% (–33.1%)
    LNP: 28.9% (+12.4%)
    Greens: 11.41% (+3.7%)

    Labor: 54.9% (–23.3%)
    LNP: 45.1% (+23.3%)

    Huge swing just like at the by-election but not enough to win. The loss of Palaszczuk’s personal vote plus the broader statewide swing against Labor is reflected by this. Other random minor party candidates and independents would get less than 5% of the vote each, with the possible exception of Linh Nguyen or Nayda Hernandez should either of them run again (as independents) but even then they would get less than 8% of the vote. The swing is huge but not enough for the LNP to win and Labor should be able to recover from such a big swing in 2028.

  2. Don’t think the swing at the general election will be bigger than the by-election. The 30% swing against Labor at the by-election was worst case scenario for Labor (and even worse than the swing they copped in 2012 at the wipeout election). I think Labor will hold Inala 60-40 TPP, but still a 18% swing from the 2020 election.

  3. @Caleb I think the LNP will retain Ipswich West though. Also, my predictions assumed that Labor’s election eve polling was much worse than now.

    At the 2011 NSW state election, a landslide for the Coalition, Stuart Ayres (Liberal) won 66.3% of the TPP vote. At the 2010 Penrith state by-election he won 66.5% of the TPP vote. He had 54.0% of the primary vote at the state election and 51.5% of the primary vote at the by-election, so he actually improved his primary vote at the state election by 3.5% despite his TPP vote dropping slightly (though only by 0.2%).

  4. I highly doubt a 2PP swing of over 23% from the 2020 result. The largest swings in 2012 were a bit above 21% and they were in Sunnybank and Mount Ommaney, both electorates had retiring Labor members. I don’t see this election as diabolical for Labor as 2012 was. The by-election swing was an outlier due to the lower turnout and the ability to punish a party without changing government.

  5. This sear will have a very small swing from by election results due to Margie Nightingale having more of a profile as a sitting MP. Definite Labor retain.

  6. This seat will have a very small swing from by election results due to Margie Nightingale having more of a profile as a sitting MP. Definite Labor retain.

  7. I mean if Inala goes to LNP at this election, I’d be wondering if flying swine is actually a real thing. Inala is about as red as it gets even though Labor took the biggest haircut of their time in this seat at the by-election. I’d imagine the margin will probably end up being bigger than what Palaszczuk got in 2012 (which was around 6 or 7% against LNP) but it won’t be anywhere near the 20+% when she held the seat. This seat is the definition of the Palaszczuks’ ingrained given only she and her father held the seat in history and most likely took a large personal vote away from the seat when she left.

  8. Perhaps the most striking improvement on a by-election result was Ryde:
    – 2007 general: Labor 10.1
    – 2008 by: Liberal 13.0
    – 2011 general: Liberal 25.7

    The 2007-to-2008 swing was 23.1 but the 2007-to-2011 swing was 35.8. I remember people commenting on the Ryde 2011 page discussing how much Dominello’s by-election margin would be reduced by as if that were a given!

  9. @Nicholas and Labor never got Ryde back again. They came very close in 2023 when Victor Dominello retired but former Mayor Jordan Lane managed to win by 54 votes on TPP and with a decent lead over Labor on primaries.

    There was also a by-election in Penrith where the swing from 2007 to 2010 was huge and almost static from 2010 to 2011.

  10. Nicholas – surprisingly, it was current bennelong mp Jerome laxale who first ran ad the Labor candidate in Ryde for 2011. Although he lost convincingly, he ran again in 2015 and 2019 where he returned the liberal margin back down to the 10% range.


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