Ferny Grove – Queensland 2024

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  1. I seem to recall Savanh was the leader of the Young LNP back when Barclay McGain was publicly disgracing himself. Can’t see the LNP overcoming a 10% margin here unless it’s a truly catastrophic election for Labor.

  2. Labor had a very bad result Brisbane City council election result at the Gap. They failed to even finish in the two party preferred vote. How much relevant is to this seat is hard to say. Mark Furner has built up a good buffer, but you would say on current polling this seat is probably vulnerable to the LNP. The Greens may get a spike to their vote here too, but reaching the two party preferred vote is out of the question.

  3. @ John This is the most middle class part of Ryan and the weakest part for the Greens. Even in Ryan, Labor out-polled the Greens in this part.

  4. Halfway decent chance it flips I suppose but much like Stafford, Labor doesn’t have the tiniest chance of retaining government if they can’t win ferny grove relatively easily anyway.

  5. @ Nether Portal
    I agree that Moggill that is weaker for the Greens but the difference compared to Ferny Grove is that it extremely weak for Labor more so than the Greens. So the Greens easily outpoll Labor in Mogill part of Ryan. I am interested to see if the Greens make the 2CP in the State electorate of Mogill in October.

  6. This is one of those Brisbane seats that the LNP should commit to long term, not just for one election cycle, to become competitive and eventually have it as a Liberal leaning marginal. They need to build their base in the seat. It shouldn’t be a seat that only comes in during landslides.

    Same with the likes of Mansfield, Redcliffe, Pine Rivers, Springwood. They start every election with a major handicap where they need to win nearly every non Greater Brisbane seats to get to a workable majority. If they started with 7 or 8 Greater Brisbane seats in opposition and a couple of Labor marginals within 3-4% it would make life alot easier for them (alongside being able to win regional and Sunny Coast marginals). Their failure to win Brisbane seats is the weakness that has led to so many years in opposition.

    Back to Ferny Grove. I don’t think Nelson is a good candidate, he is merely a factional foot soldier for McGrath, Brandis and the so called moderates. One of those who is successful at internals and preselections, but I doubt has any true electability with the public.

  7. @LNPinsider where is the source saying Nelson is a moderate? And why does that matter? If people want more conservative candidates they’ll go and support One Nation and then give us preferences anyway!

  8. I can’t see Ferny Grove flipping. The high proportion of Green votes will keep FG for Labor.

    LNP are mounting a decent campaign, but I agree with previous comments about Nelson’s electability, or lack there of.

    Furner is actually one MP I thought would retire this time, given his long stint in politics (both Federally and State) and having been a Minister (in his 60s).

    Greens will poll strongly (around 20-23% is my guess), Labor low 30s and LNP mid 30s.

  9. Incumbent Labor MP will retire as he has realised that Nelson Savanh’s campaign is relentless and undefeatable. Ferny Grove will be gained on a 15% swing to the LNP.

  10. I sense Mark Furner will hang on, if recontesting. He has enough of a buffer. He has gotten more support than equivalent federal and local Labor. My guess is that his primary vote would take a hit with Greens and LNP picking up votes. Strong Greens preferences will help him get over the line.

  11. BJA is the only reason you oppose CPV is because it probably hurts your own party? If so that is wrong.

    If it is because you have a libertarian stance like I do that you shouldn’t be forced to preference the 2 majors if a voter really doesn’t want to and still wants their vote to count for the minor party. Then fair enough.

  12. Good chance Mr Savanh will win – Ferny Grove at 11% might be the biggest Labor margin overcome by the LNP unless Maryborough (I think likely) or Mount Ommaney (less likely) fall.


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