ALP 11.0%
Incumbent MP
Mark Furner, since 2015.
Geography
South-East Queensland. Ferny Grove covers northern parts of the City of Brisbane and southern parts of Moreton Bay LGA, on the northwestern fringe of Brisbane. The seat covers the suburbs of Ferny Grove, Ferny Hills, Arana Hills, Enoggera, Upper Kedron and parts of Keperra, Gaythorne and Alderley.
History
Ferny Grove has existed since 1992, and has been won by Labor at every election except 2012.
It was first won in 1992 by Glen Milliner, who had held the neighbouring seat of Everton since 1977. He became a minister in the Goss government in 1989. He continued to serve as a minister until the government lost power in 1996, and he retired from Parliament in 1998.
Ferny Grove was won in 1998 by Geoff Wilson. Wilson held Ferny Grove for five terms, and served as a minister from 2004 to 2012.
In 2012, Wilson was defeated by LNP candidate Dale Shuttleworth. Shuttleworth held the seat for one term, losing in 2015 to Labor’s Mark Furner. Furner was re-elected in 2017.
- Nelson Savanh (Liberal National)
- Leonie Swanner (One Nation)
- Mark Furner (Labor)
- Elizabeth McAulay (Greens)
Assessment
Ferny Grove is a safe Labor seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Mark Furner | Labor | 14,577 | 45.1 | +4.6 |
| Chris Lehmann | Liberal National | 10,714 | 33.1 | -6.9 |
| Joel Colls | Greens | 4,910 | 15.2 | -0.3 |
| Elton Williams | One Nation | 956 | 3.0 | +3.0 |
| Susan Pini | Informed Medical Options | 510 | 1.6 | +1.6 |
| Mark Scofield | Independent | 467 | 1.4 | +1.4 |
| John Mccabe | United Australia | 191 | 0.6 | +0.6 |
| Informal | 870 | 2.6 |
2020 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Mark Furner | Labor | 19,710 | 61.0 | +6.3 |
| Chris Lehmann | Liberal National | 12,615 | 39.0 | -6.3 |
Booths in Ferny Grove have been divided into three areas: east, south and west.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 15.4% in the west to 22.9% in the east.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 15.4% in the west to 22.9% in the east.
| Voter group | GRN prim % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| West | 15.4 | 62.2 | 3,603 | 11.1 |
| Central | 17.7 | 63.1 | 3,012 | 9.3 |
| East | 22.9 | 62.2 | 2,089 | 6.5 |
| Other votes | 13.9 | 60.8 | 12,716 | 39.3 |
| Pre-poll | 14.4 | 60.0 | 10,905 | 33.7 |
Election results in Ferny Grove at the 2020 Queensland state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal National Party and the Greens.
I saw on Instagram yesterday that Nelson Savanh will be the LNP’s candidate for Ferny Grove.
I seem to recall Savanh was the leader of the Young LNP back when Barclay McGain was publicly disgracing himself. Can’t see the LNP overcoming a 10% margin here unless it’s a truly catastrophic election for Labor.
Especially considering that Savanh said “good stuff” to a racist video.
Labor had a very bad result Brisbane City council election result at the Gap. They failed to even finish in the two party preferred vote. How much relevant is to this seat is hard to say. Mark Furner has built up a good buffer, but you would say on current polling this seat is probably vulnerable to the LNP. The Greens may get a spike to their vote here too, but reaching the two party preferred vote is out of the question.
Greens will need to keep up a profile here to retain Ryan. Worth a proper attempt at the seat.
@ John This is the most middle class part of Ryan and the weakest part for the Greens. Even in Ryan, Labor out-polled the Greens in this part.
@Nimalan same as Moggill.
At one point Moggill was the only Liberal seat in Brisbane.
Halfway decent chance it flips I suppose but much like Stafford, Labor doesn’t have the tiniest chance of retaining government if they can’t win ferny grove relatively easily anyway.
@ Nether Portal
I agree that Moggill that is weaker for the Greens but the difference compared to Ferny Grove is that it extremely weak for Labor more so than the Greens. So the Greens easily outpoll Labor in Mogill part of Ryan. I am interested to see if the Greens make the 2CP in the State electorate of Mogill in October.
This is one of those Brisbane seats that the LNP should commit to long term, not just for one election cycle, to become competitive and eventually have it as a Liberal leaning marginal. They need to build their base in the seat. It shouldn’t be a seat that only comes in during landslides.
Same with the likes of Mansfield, Redcliffe, Pine Rivers, Springwood. They start every election with a major handicap where they need to win nearly every non Greater Brisbane seats to get to a workable majority. If they started with 7 or 8 Greater Brisbane seats in opposition and a couple of Labor marginals within 3-4% it would make life alot easier for them (alongside being able to win regional and Sunny Coast marginals). Their failure to win Brisbane seats is the weakness that has led to so many years in opposition.
Back to Ferny Grove. I don’t think Nelson is a good candidate, he is merely a factional foot soldier for McGrath, Brandis and the so called moderates. One of those who is successful at internals and preselections, but I doubt has any true electability with the public.
@LNPinsider where is the source saying Nelson is a moderate? And why does that matter? If people want more conservative candidates they’ll go and support One Nation and then give us preferences anyway!
I can’t see Ferny Grove flipping. The high proportion of Green votes will keep FG for Labor.
LNP are mounting a decent campaign, but I agree with previous comments about Nelson’s electability, or lack there of.
Furner is actually one MP I thought would retire this time, given his long stint in politics (both Federally and State) and having been a Minister (in his 60s).
Greens will poll strongly (around 20-23% is my guess), Labor low 30s and LNP mid 30s.
Incumbent Labor MP will retire as he has realised that Nelson Savanh’s campaign is relentless and undefeatable. Ferny Grove will be gained on a 15% swing to the LNP.
I sense Mark Furner will hang on, if recontesting. He has enough of a buffer. He has gotten more support than equivalent federal and local Labor. My guess is that his primary vote would take a hit with Greens and LNP picking up votes. Strong Greens preferences will help him get over the line.
It may be that compulsory preferential voting saves Labor here 🙁
BJA is the only reason you oppose CPV is because it probably hurts your own party? If so that is wrong.
If it is because you have a libertarian stance like I do that you shouldn’t be forced to preference the 2 majors if a voter really doesn’t want to and still wants their vote to count for the minor party. Then fair enough.
I prefer OPV.
Good chance Mr Savanh will win – Ferny Grove at 11% might be the biggest Labor margin overcome by the LNP unless Maryborough (I think likely) or Mount Ommaney (less likely) fall.
Will be very interesting if Mark Furner retires. This margin is totally inflated. Was only a 4% Labor seat after the 2017 election.
Many patriots in this electorate. I think this and Mount Ommaney are good chances for the LNP – at least much better than their margins suggest.
Just was doorknocked by the LNP in Upper Kedron for the third time. Surprising for an 11% seat…
Poll Bludger has 4 Candidates on the Ballot in the order of Labor, LNP, Greens & One Nation.
https://www.pollbludger.net/qld2024/LA.htm?s=FernyGrove
This might be an LNP vs Greens seat now that I think about it, depending on how well the Greens campaign.
Can’t see Labor dropping from the 2pp np
For whatever reason, despite the large overlap with Ryan, Greens are not targeting this seat to any real extent. The local candidate seems active enough but most central QLD Greens campaigning is focusing on the idea they can win 6 seats, with the new pick ups being Cooper, McConnel, Greenslopes and Miller.
Unless there’s some 4D chess going on and the Greens are secretly trying a lot harder than at first glance, I think it will be a narrow ALP retain here.
@Blue Not John I think the parts of Ferny Grove that overlap with Ryan are the weaker sections for the Greens in a similar fashion to the more conservative Moggill, compared to the likes of Maiwar, Cooper etc. It’s the area that leans towards outer suburban Brisbane that’s likely to see a huge swing to the LNP more than the Greens which is why I suspect the Greens are playing dead.
As for the other seats, Cooper and McConnel are definitely the best shot for the Greens. Greenslopes and Miller are also potential surprise hits but Greenslopes is in the weaker Greens area of Griffith and Miller is more Moreton that has a stronger ALP vote overall and the Greens aren’t really in contention yet. Maybe if the ALP fails to recover by 2028 the Greens could get them.
@Tommo to a certain extent that makes sense but Greens are actually targeting Moggill – preselected early and featuring the candidate in central campaign materials.
Looking at booths 2022 Labor/Greens seemed to win the relevant ones except Upper Kedron (including Ferny Hills and Arana Hills in Dickson) and Greens didn’t under poll Labor by much, usually cracking 20%. EWB would want to reliably outpoll Labor and genuinely flip a chunk of the Liberal vote the way Berkman did in Maiwar. I would have thought that meant high level ground campaigning in all overlaps.
Furner is 66 – it’s unlikely he’ll hang around much longer. Perhaps Greens will wait until he retires to hit this electorate hard.
Alp retain