LNP 2.2%
Incumbent MP
Tim Mander, since 2012.
Geography
Northern fringe of Brisbane. The seat straddles the border between the City of Brisbane and Moreton Bay Regional Council. The seat covers the suburbs of Oxford Park, Everton Hills, Albany Hill and parts of Mitchelton, Bunya, Brendale and Arana Hills.
Everton has existed since the 1972 election. The ALP held the seat continuously from 1977 to 2012.
Gerry Jones won the seat for the ALP at the 1972 election. He lost the seat in a massive landslide to Joh Bjelke-Petersen’s National-Liberal government in 1974. Jones went on to serve in the Senate from 1980 to 1996.
In 1974 the seat was won by the Liberal Party’s Brian Lindsay. He served for one term before losing in 1977 to the Labor Party’s Glen Milliner.
Milliner held the seat from 1977 to 1992. Milliner became a minister in the Goss Labor government in 1989. In 1992 he moved to the new seat of Ferny Grove, and was succeeded by Rod Selford in Everton.
Selford had been first elected in the seat of Stafford in 1989 before moving to Everton in 1992. Welford joined the ministry when Peter Beattie became Premier in 1998. He served as a minister for eleven years, until he retired in 2009.
Welford was succeeded in 2009 by Murray Watt, who had previously served as Chief of Staff to Anna Bligh.
In 2012, Watt was defeated by LNP candidate Tim Mander. Mander has been re-elected three times. Mander has been on the opposition frontbench since 2016, and served as shadow treasurer and deputy leader of the opposition from 2017 until 2020.
- Alan Buchbach (One Nation)
- Tim Mander (Liberal National)
- Brent McDowall (Greens)
- Michelle Byard (Labor)
Assessment
Everton is a marginal LNP seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Tim Mander | Liberal National | 15,455 | 45.8 | -6.0 |
| Danielle Shankey | Labor | 12,755 | 37.8 | +1.9 |
| Helen Rath | Greens | 3,098 | 9.2 | -3.2 |
| Mal Johnson | One Nation | 1,051 | 3.1 | +3.1 |
| Frank Jordan | Legalise Cannabis | 871 | 2.6 | +2.6 |
| Joanne Dissanayake | Informed Medical Options | 264 | 0.8 | +0.8 |
| Simon Russ | United Australia | 152 | 0.5 | +0.5 |
| Jabez Wells | Independent | 105 | 0.3 | +0.3 |
| Informal | 782 | 2.3 |
2020 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Tim Mander | Liberal National | 17,630 | 52.2 | -2.7 |
| Danielle Shankey | Labor | 16,121 | 47.8 | +2.7 |
Booths in Everton have been divided into three areas: central, north and south.
The LNP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in the north, with 54.4%, while Labor polled 52.4% in the centre and 55.4% in the south. The LNP also won 53.7% of the pre-poll vote.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 7.5% in the north to 15.4% in the south.
| Voter group | GRN prim % | LNP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| North | 7.5 | 54.4 | 4,026 | 11.9 |
| South | 15.4 | 44.6 | 2,640 | 7.8 |
| Central | 11.6 | 47.6 | 1,761 | 5.2 |
| Pre-poll | 8.4 | 53.7 | 13,203 | 39.1 |
| Other votes | 8.9 | 52.2 | 12,121 | 35.9 |
Election results in Everton at the 2020 Queensland state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal National Party, Labor and the Greens.
Interestingly this seems to be the only state seat that overlaps with Duttons seat of Dickson that is held by the LNP. Ferny Grove appears to be a seat that overlaps and is a safe Labor seat. This seat itself was safe Labor until 2012. The same seems to be the case in Longman, if these state results were translated federally Labor would hold both Dickson and Longman. Does anybody with local knowledge know why there would be such a gap between state and federal voting patterns for such a prolonged period as this seems to have been the case for the last 20 years.
Being from Brisbane, I can indicate that the distribution of conservative and progressive leaning suburbs across the city is less clear cut compared to either Sydney or Melbourne.
This means the sitting member factor plays a more substantial role in determining whether an MP can hold onto their seat or not.
@Yoh An Fair enough, it does seem that many seats in Brisbane have a trend of higher contrasts of TPP between different suburbs in the same seat
Ferny Grove has a lot more middle rung suburbs that tend to lean left. Even the outer suburbs in ED of Ferny Grove are generally lower economic areas, except for Bunya. In contrast, Everton has tons of McMansion land, especially in Albany Creek (and the rest of Bunya that’s not in Ferny Grove).
Everton is not really McMansion land.
It has stayed LNP because Tim Mander is very high profile as an ex-NRL referee & subsequently, has been an active local MP.
tim mander’s a factor. he doesn’t explain the clear political divide north and south of the jinker track, borne out at both the state and federal level. anyone who’s familiar with albany creek, eatons hill, everton hills and parts of everton park etc., and seen how it compares to for eg the built up area along old northern road running into enoggera and mitchelton would know what i mean.
LNP hold with a decent swing to Mander.
The Greens Candidate for Moreton Bay’s Div 10 got 20% of the vote with 4,500, that at least 13.46% of Everton’s vote share and a 4.28% swing to the Greens hypothetically
I think the assumption of that portion of Greens vote is unlikely. Moreton Bay Elections run mostly independent candidates and the greens candidates vote would have likely been bolstered by the fact he was the only identifiable party and that the local councillor in Div 10 has been there for quite some time with an expected swing away from him. The area of Everton that comprises Div 10 would likely be one of the highest concentration of greens voters in Everton. I think the northern areas will compensate for that. I don’t see Tim Mander losing and as a centrist voter I don’t really see why he should. He is extremely hard working and pragmatic and I think he would be an effective minister having met him before. Shame I live outside his electorate.