Currumbin – Queensland 2024

Not certain lnp retain

This is interesting! No doubt it’s an LNP win (unless Down pulls off a miracle), but im curious as to who comes 2nd. Obviously labor has a big lead but I’ve heard that Down (a progressive, despite her anti-tram views) and the Greens might do a preference deal, but I’m not sure. Greens are going good in McPherson and if they beat Down (presuming she gets double-digits) they could overtake Labor for 2nd. Really not sure how big the wipeout for Labor will be in the Gold Coast but I wouldn’t rule out a North Sydney style scenario where the Greens make it to 2nd in a handful of safe LNP seats in the GC (Burleigh, Currumbin, Mermaid Beach, Southport, Surfers Paradise, Mudgeeraba).

@Am Now I agree I think it’s certainly possible especially since the affluent areas of the Gold Coast aren’t moving towards Labor. I think one day Surfers Paradise will be a LNP vs Greens seat but the LNP will obviously always win it quite easily.

Probably a smaller swing to the LNP than statewide average in seats like this, Theodore, Coomera, Caloundra, etc. these seats are trending Labor but will easily be won by the LNP this time but the margins will probably be around 10% and will become very marginal again when Labor is competitive.

Labor will need most of the seats I mentioned to win government if they can’t get the Townsville seats back.

@ Daniel T
I agree Labor will need to win Coomera and Theodore next time to form government but those seats have no waterfront. I think as Caloundra is growing fast it will be split into two electorates by next redistribution. I dont actually feel it will be easier to win Burleigh or Currumbin instead of Townsville seats for the reason i mentioned that they have valuable real estate so will get wealthier over time. Nor do i think Labor will win Mogiill instead.

@nimalan based of the previous number son this site i doubt 2 seats it was like 10% over or somethin like that and the next redistribution begins in december it will likely shed voters in its borth or coloundra itself as its like an extra appendage hanging off the rest of the district meaning the cloundra name will become extinct and i would personally suggest calling it pelican waters or bells creek or something associated with either of those 2 names

@ John
If Caloundra loses more inland areas like Landsborough i think it will become better for the LNP. Labor does better inland while the LNP does better closer to the beach. Do you also feel that Burleigh and Currumbin will become better for the LNP over time as they contain Surf Beaches?

@nimaln i think burliegh will lose palm beach to currumbin but given the natural boundary of mermaid waters it would be better if it then took in reedy creek from mudgeeraba

Poll Bludger has 5 Candidates on the ballot in the order of LNP, Labor, Greens, One Nation & Kath Down.
https://www.pollbludger.net/qld2024/LA.htm?s=Currumbin

Greens candidate Braden Smith gave an interview to greenleft about the Greens economic policies: https://www.greenleft.org.au/content/qld-greens-candidate-we-need-people-centred-economy

Smith’s campaign is fairly prominent in Currumbin. I think Greens see a future in this corner of the Gold Coast and are invested in continuing to develop it. It borders of course on one of their best prospects in NSW: Richmond. So I imagine that their campaign probably field help and volunteers interchangeably between both the Gold Coast and Northern Rivers.

A notable thing that Smith has latched onto and promoted in his corflutes is the Heavy-Rail extension to Currumbin. This is regarded as a pretty popular policy in the southern end of the Gold Coast and has for decades been discussed and planned by various governments. It has also generally been perceived as a less controversial alternative to the additional Light-Rail stages. However, other major Gold Coast infrastructure initiatives have been taken on instead like the Light Rail, Coomera Connector and M1 upgrades.

Again in the last few months, not long before caretaker-mode, the Heavy Rail extension has been resurfaced by the Department of Transport Main Roads. Indicating that they plan on formally planning the Heavy Rail extension. This has not really been of much comment so far by Labor or the LNP as part of the formal campaign. In fact LNP have been trying to avoid the topic. So it has been wise the Braden Smith has taken this on as something to adopt and amplify as a Greens policy.

Apparently a significant number of voters are taking only Kath Down’s HTV card (which has no preferences indicated). Could she be in with a real chance to win this seat, or is this just off data from 1 morning of prepoll

Thus and the seats that made up the old Albert are Labor’s best chances to gain extra in the right environment. This discussion is indirect evidence that the gold coast swing may be muted and Labor retains Gavan

Why is Gerber out with Crisafulli everywhere he goes? She was in Rockampton the other day.

She isn’t even experienced enough in the parliament to be this senior already. She has barely served a full term.

Will the LNP commit to a heavy rail extention to Coolongatta?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GGFFhBmA1Jg 6 News done an interview with the Greens candidate here

@Nimalan, wish we could know. They have only committed to “reviewing all transport options” for Southern Gold Coast when they get in. Gerber has mentioned Rapid Bus transit connections to the airport a couple of times when prompted on future light rail stages.

In the final months of this government, Department of Transport and Main Roads published some new material on the initiative. Indicating that they intend on putting it through planning. But I can’t find any recent explicit remarks on this initiative from the Labor campaign. Does anyone know if Fleury, Carlin, Lynch or Scanlon have commented on this at all? (I have not checked their socials or flyers).

A community forum/debate was held last night by the Tugun Progress Association. Labor, the LNP, Greens, One Nation and Kath Down attended. Apparently Laura Gerber struggled to answer an Abortion question, and the organisers said that Braden Smith (GRN) was the winner of the debate

Thanks SEQ observer i am really hoping the heavy rail extention is not forgotton it has been proposed since Beattie in 2007

isnt it light rail?

Nimalan,
The LNP are opposed to the heavy rail extension to Gold Coast Airport. They want the Light Rail to use the heavy rail corridor instead of the populated corridor, as currently planned.
The current light rail corridor is close to the lo previous heavy rail line which was closed by the Nicklin Government.
There are three in fill railway stations currently under construction on the Gold Coast – Pimpama, Hope Island, and Mudgeeraba.
Current status of heavy rail and light rail extensions can be found at these links.
https://www.tmr.qld.gov.au/projects/gold-coast-heavy-rail-extension-varsity-lakes-to-gold-coast-airport
https://www.tmr.qld.gov.au/projects/gold-coast-light-rail
https://www.tmr.qld.gov.au/projects/gold-coast-light-rail-stage-4

Nimalan may be referring to the rail connection to Brisbane, which terminates at , rather than the Gold Coast light rail network. I could be wrong though.

Terminates at Varsity Lakes, I meant to say

Thanks @ Watson watch
I am grateful to Beattie for extending to Varsity Lakes and for Gillard and Bligh for finally funding the Redcliffe Penisula line after 100 years. It is a stupid idea to put light rail on a corridor designated for heavy rail. What was the terminus of the old heavy rail line.
@ John there is a seperate proposal for Heavy rail to complement Light rail as Watson Watch correctly stated.

Nimalan,
Tweed Heads was the terminus for the South Coast Railway. It opened in 1903. Southport to Tweed Heads closed in 1961 and Beenleigh to Southport closed in 1964.
The section in Tweed Heads is now a cycleway.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Coast_railway_line,_Queensland
The area only officially became the Gold Coast in 1958.

Light Rail and heavy rail serve different purposes. Light rail services shorter trips between densely-populated suburbs, and heavy rail transports large numbers of people between cities and major centres. I hope an LNP government doesn’t use the heavy rail corridor for light rail. I would personally like to see the light rail extended to Currumbin down the currently proposed route, and the heavy rail extended to Gold Coast Airport via its currently proposed route, with an interchange at the airport.

Thanks Watson Watch
@ AA agree with you, i support both light rail and heavy rail

Maybe an outside chance of Kath Down winning

Since Kath Down’s allies couldn’t win the council divisions in this area, I think she has no hope of winning Currumbin. The LNP brand will be too strong.

As for light rail and heavy rail, the idea of putting a mode like light rail alongside a motorway and industrial areas is absurd planning. As A A said above, light rail works well in densely populated corridors like the coastal strip, whereas heavy rail can go through areas of low population because of the large distance between stations.

The only reason this is even being talked about is because some residents of Palm Beach are the ultimate NIMBYs. They want to keep pretending its the 1970s and they’re a small seaside community, instead of part of a rapidly growing major city, and the light rail will burst their bubble.

But there aren’t enough of these people to win elections. As previously mentioned, Kath Down’s anti-light rail friends didn’t win, Tate got re-elected as mayor comfortably and the light rail will proceed on its original route unless the LNP cut the funding.

Yes completely agree @Wilson, these anti Light-rail campaigners are a small but vocal minority. They’re just NIMBYs who want their communities to be secluded from the rest of the Gold Coast, but the reality is that’s not happening. People will visit the southern Gold Coast. It’s a question of whether we want them to drive everywhere, and clog up local roads, or take fast and efficient public transport. They can move to Woodgate or Tinnanbar if they really want a small seaside town.

@ Real Talk is right i was referring to extending the rail line from Varsity Lakes

I concur, A A. And it’s not just the Gold Coast, NIMBYism is partly responsible for our dire housing affordability crisis (along with tax breaks for property investors, high immigration and other factors).

Surprisingly this is one of the few places where Tom Tate was outpolled in the mayoral election

Down almost won the council seat but the tram is a hyper local issue, was only a two horse race and the local member was on the nose.

Gerber will win comfortably riding the swing to the LNP and not being personally disliked (might be wrong terminally, maybe more time for a change vibe) like the local councilor.

Was only close last time because the previous well respected LNP candidate got turfed for Gerber. No issue with that and long forgotten.

I wonder if the never ending road works before the NSW border will affect votes here. It really is a nightmare trying to get through that section of the highway and it seems to have been going on for years.

@Rosco it definitely will, but I’m not sure in what ways