Cooper – Queensland 2024

@John – Are you saying that Jonty Bush is a male? Jonty Bush is actually a female.

I reckon this will go Green if Labor’s state polls contiune. Possibly more likley than McConnel.

@james did you just assume their gender.? (Jkin) didn’t know that tbh.

In relation to the redistribution it should lose the reservoir as it unnecessarily elongates the district and adds no real electtors

@cg easy greens gain. This is within ryan and Labor will likely finish 3rd. I wager lnp finishes first and greens second

FINALLY, FINALLY, FINALLY I CAN SAY THIS:

LNP have preselected Raewyn Bailey, the CEO of Mental Awareness Foundation, a Mater Foundation Board member, and former owner of a successful recruitment firm for Cooper. An interesting race with no clear winner in sight.

The race to win Cooper against Labor & Greens*

@james libs can’t win without a size primary increase. Greens should easily push Labor into 3rd and take the seat

@John – The Labor MP Jonty Bush is quite popular and active in the electorate. Yes the tide is turning on them, but MPs with a personal following should usually get re-elected. @A A has said this quite often. Plus, it feels the Greens candidate is merely running for photo-ops with the federal MPs. I doubt she’ll win.

Plus, have you seen the results in Cooper in 2020? Labor, LNP & Greens were only separated by 5% on primaries. I’m confident the LNP can’t win as the left vote outweighs the right vote but who knows what could happen. The LNP retained The Gap ward on BCC with a swing to them plus barely lost Paddington so there could be an upset?

@james possibly all I know is Labor isn’t winning this seat

Redistribution would likely make this less safe for Labor.

As for the LNP, I think they’ll definitely finish first here, but I don’t think they can win this seat simply because the left vote is too high. As others have pointed out, Jonty Bush is quite popular in Cooper, so the swing against her will be probably smaller than in other seats, including the neighbouring seat of Moggill. The swing against Labor will be split between the LNP (voters who are happy with the more moderate Crisafulli as opposed to the more conservative Dutton (Crisafulli is the most moderate LNP leader since Tim Nicholls) and “it’s time”rs, plus swing voters on issues such as crime and cost of living) and the Greens (voters moving to the left plus people voting for a third party).

The Labor voters swinging to the LNP this time fall under a few categories statewide:

* Affected voters (especially voters affected by what Crisafulli refers as the “four crises”: the crime crisis, the cost-of-living crisis, the health crisis and the housing crisis)
* “It’s time”rs (people who have had enough of Labor)
* Moderates and centrists (people who prefer Crisafulli to Dutton or even Frecklington)
* Swing voters (much of these fall under the first category)

Currently there’s an unpopular Prime Minister and federal Labor leader in Albanese, an unpopular Opposition Leader and federal Coalition leader in Dutton and an unpopular Premier and state Labor leader in Steven Miles, but a popular state Opposition Leader and state LNP leader in Crisafulli. Greens and minor party leaders are never popular with the general public (at least ideologically) because they are too extreme (Adam Bandt would likely be more unpopular than any party leader in the current Federal Parliament barring maybe Pauline Hanson simply because there are more Greens voters than One Nation voters in most of Australia).

Just looked at the primary vote figures by the way. Last time Labor only led the LNP on primaries by 224 votes, and the Greens got exactly 10,000 votes and were 1,285 votes behind the LNP.

Overall, here’s a summary of the results here last time:

* Left: 63.7% (–2.3%)
* Right: 35.1% (–0.5%)
* Wiltshire: 1.3% (–1.7%)

I have no idea what Robert Wiltshire’s views are so I’ve separated his 1.3% from the rest. As we can see, this is a progressive seat.

@np yes minor parties especially those on the extreme end only resonate with a small fraction of voters. Although despite being considered as once extreme one nation isn’t seem as extreme as it once was at least publicly people are OT afraid to show support for them. In regards to the redistribution my plan is to put fig tree pocket and enoggera resevoir into moggill while enogerra reservoir only has a handful of voters in unecessarily elongates Cooper and makes it easier for Cooper to expand without looking weird. I then plan to move maiwar into Milton and then move Cooper into mconnel along countess Street taking in petrie terrace

@np not necessarily progressive remember Campbell Newman did once represent it. Libs could easily persuade some Labor voters to their side but despite her popularity I can’t see how bush survives anything but a negligible swing of less then 2.25% to the greens putting her out of the 2cp and that’s not including any swing to the lnp. Her only other hope is that it s alab vs grn contest in which she might get lib preferences. But I can’t see her surviving

@John Campbell Newman represented Ashgrove, not exactly Cooper, but a more conservative part of Cooper.

Furthermore, the only possible way for Jonty Bush to survive is for either the LNP or the Greens to flop and not make the TCP. Labor has to finish first or second to win.

@np the lnp will finish first. Greens second Labor 3rd. The greens are running the same candidate as 2020. The combined lnp and green swing will push her out. It only has to be 2.25% lab->grn to push greens into 2nd and Labor out. And that’s not including any swing to libs. Labor is unpopular at a state and federal level sure she has some personal voters but the swing voters will determine this. Cooper was the former ashgrove and is close enough to the same division.

If you look at where the road connections are, it makes sense that the very few electors in Enoggera Reservoir would be in the same electorate as The Gap.

@nicholas yes but my reasoning is it elongates the district and yes it should be but the electorate should not be drawn so long as it makes adding bits when needed further making it weird looking

@John I agree the LNP will finish first but I’m saying if Labor are to win they need to finish either first or second, so with swings to the LNP and the Greens that’s highly unlikely, so they’ll probably finish third and end up losing the seat to the Greens.

Poll Bludger has 5 Candidates on the Ballot in the Order of Labor, Greens, LNP, One Nation & Family First.
https://www.pollbludger.net/qld2024/LA.htm?s=Cooper

This will be one of those Macnamara/Richmond-type seats where the LNP finish first but lose on preferences.

First preferences:
1. LNP (↑) — gaining Labor votes
2. Greens (↑) — gaining Labor votes
3. Labor (↓) — losing votes to the Greens and the LNP
4. One Nation (↓) — losing votes to Family First
5. Family First (—) — gaining One Nation votes

TPP:
1. Greens (↑) — Labor preferences
2. LNP (↑) — One Nation/Family First preferences

It’s been reported in the Australian, the LNP will preference Labor over the Greens.

@ Nether Portal
I am not sure if Family First voters will come from One nation. See article below One Nation voters are much less to ever to attend church even for weddings or funerals than the general Australian public.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/mar/27/looking-back-and-angry-what-drives-pauline-hansons-voters

@Nimalan I meant because they are a socially conservative party. I agree though One Nation isn’t a particularly religious party.

Agree socially conservative I generally feel Family First can take from both parties and their vote can cross class lines.

I don’t know if I’ll have the tools for a full-fledged submission when the redistribution occurs, but I would like a minor thing done here, which would be to have this seat dual-named for both Lilian Violet Cooper (as it already is) and former Premiers Frank Arthur Cooper/Russell Cooper (although the latter is still alive). I don’t really like naming electorates after people but the ECQ is clearly running with that idea these days, and Nicklin and Theodore already exist. Of course some Premiers already have a federal electorate named after them, so they can’t have a state electorate too, but one way or another they’d be honoured in the same way PMs are.

@laine they won’t name it after him while he’s alive. I didn’t nt either at a state level your basically representing a group of people from certain places so I choose to use place names.

Our federal electorates should be geographically named too i think

Not necessarily because they encompass such a much bigger area.

I actually did the numbers

Unless there is a swing greater than 10% against Jonti Bush of which 4% go to The Greens, Jonti keeps the seat.

The point is that the seat will go green or ALP. As noted above there was last time a 13% margin for the leftish/progressive side. There could be a swing of 10% but 13% is not likely. Moreover the mood is not that hostile. Bland and a bit mer!!! I would describe it as maybe a 4-7% anti Labor swing, but not 13% territory.

Additionally the Greens taking 4% of the ALP is unlikely. 2% I would expect because that is the trend but 4% is too high.

Yes the Greens did very well in Ryan federally but I am not sure that translates completely to the state level.

Not sure where you got 10% from. There’s only a 5% gap between the Labor and Greens primary. Both the Greens and LNP taking a small bite out of the Labor vote (the latter a much smaller bite than what will be expected in a typical electorate) will be enough to push Labor into 3rd with Greens winning on Labor preferences.

Jonty is a strong candidate and can’t be ruled out but it will take a lot of sandbagging to save her – resources I think are much better spent in other seats.

wouldnt rule out an lnp win either its only a 10% margin on the 2pp

What would this seat be on Council results? Or Federal results?

At the 2024 Brisbane City Council election, Cooper would have been a marginal LNP seat. The LNP won 52.9% of the TCP vote against the Greens here at that election.

thanks NP
What about on Federal results?

@Nimalan 56.6% Greens vs LNP on TCP based on federal results (including The Gap PPVC).

@ NP

What is Maiwar on Federal results

@Nimalan 57.2% Greens vs LNP

Thanks NP
Lets compare after the state election, i still think the BCC result will be higher than the state in Inner Brisbane

For some key seats I’m gonna start doing paths to victory, starting off here:

Labor’s paths:
A. Finish first and have the LNP finish second and win on Greens preferences
B. Finish first and have the Greens finish second and win on LNP preferences
C. Finish second to the LNP and win on Greens preferences
D. Finish narrowly second to the Greens and win on LNP preferences
E. Get 40% or more of the primary vote

LNP’s paths:
A. Finish first with over 45% of the primary vote and win on One Nation/Family First preferences

Greens’ paths:
A. Finish first with at least 40% of the primary vote and the LNP vote is less than 30%
B. Finish first with the LNP in second place and win on Labor preferences
C. Finish second to the LNP

So there’s only one path to victory for a conservative MP here: the LNP has to win at least 45% of the primary vote to win this seat for the first time since 2012. But for Cooper to elect a progressive MP there is a combined total of eight potential paths for a Labor or Greens MP to be elected. On federal and council figures this would be LNP vs Greens but the winner varies (on federal results the Greens would win but on council results the LNP would win). On the state level Cooper is a safe seat and Jonty Bush is a popular local member, but it is looking like the Greens could beat her. The one sign of hope for Labor though is that while the exit poll picked the LNP for a surprise victory in McConnel, it said that Labor would retain Cooper and Greenslopes.

I think Greenlopes is less affluent does not have any riverfront etc so i think classic LNP/ALP area

@Nimalan I agree. Maiwar won’t go LNP so that’s already a given.

What we do see on the federal, referendum and council results is that Indooroopilly is becoming quite progressive but it’s Greens vs LNP.

Federal results for Indooroopilly (Greens TCP):
* Indooroopilly: 61.8%
* Indooroopilly East: 56.1%
* Indooroopilly PPVC: 53.9%
* Indooroopilly West: 59.8%

State results for Indooroopilly (Greens TCP):
* Indooroopilly: 63.2% (+3.9%)
* Indooroopilly East: 55.5% (+7.5%)
* Indooroopilly West: 61.1% (+4.5%)
(Note that the last state candidate was a right-wing anti-abortion nutjob and the new candidate is a decent person, plus some people believe Michael Berkman has a personal vote and is “less extreme”)

Council results for Indooroopilly (Greens TCP):
* Indooroopilly: 55.4% (–0.4%)
* Indooroopilly East: 49.9% (+2.4%)
* Indooroopilly West: 53.0% (+1.5%)

The Courier Mail exit poll didn’t mean anything. It only counted 100 voters per electorate and only measured the first day or two of prepoll, which gets a much older voter turnout than the rest of the election period.

@Wilson I agree it should be taken with a grain of salt but I said if there’s any hope whatsoever for Labor it would be that poll. I still think the Greens will take at least one seat from Labor, probably either this or McConnel. I would’ve actually thought this would be more winnable for the LNP than McConnel given it used to be an LNP seat, maybe not though. Hopefully on election day they do an exit poll in every seat.

I do not think Federal results translate directly.

However I do revise my figures. I was talking about a 10% reduction in the ALP vote which roughly translates to a 3.3% swing. It really depends on how much of that swing goes to LNP and how much to Green.

The Greens need to catch the ALP by 1,367 votes or roughly 4%.

A local traffic issue has raised it head which may swing voters in the Gap/Ashgrove because the LNP has agreed to allow a through road which will very largely destroy the amenity of the area and increase traffic on the roads.