Coomera – Queensland 2024

Could be an interesting one given it’s 35% over quota

classic mortgage belt area now with young families so bread/butter issues will be important as a service delivery issues.

no chance Labor wins this in 2024 while on the nose. maybe 2027/2028 (early elections are possible if 3/4 or so of parliament vote to dissolve, the governor dismisses parliament, or a no-confidence vote succeeds and no government is formed in a certain time)

a redistribution after the next election will determine how this will go in 2028, but gut feeling is this becomes safer for LNP on newer boundaries and unless Crisafulli is another Newman, will probably hold until Labor wins a decent majority or improves on the Gold Coast from their disastrous 1-2 seats (although I count Macalister as Gold Coast since Beenleigh really is Gold Coast)

@Daniel T Beenleigh is in Brisbane. It falls within the City of Logan LGA. Macalister is also not on the Gold Coast given that it entirely falls within the Logan LGA. Just thought I might clear that up.

Unlike Sydney, Melbourne, Perth or Adelaide (but somewhat similar to Newcastle, the Central Coast and Wollongong), South East Queensland has fewer, more populated LGAs. The Gold Coast, the Sunshine Coast and Ipswich all have one LGA each while Brisbane has four: the City of Brisbane, the City of Logan, the City of Moreton Bay and the City of Redlands. This means that in an American-style system, SEQ (particularly Brisbane) can be more easily divided like New York City (which has five boroughs: Manhattan, Brooklyn, Queens, The Bronx and Staten Island), while Sydney, Melbourne, etc can be more easily divided like Los Angeles County (which has 88 cities inside it that all form part of one larger city and one county: Los Angeles). Or in the UK you could say that Sydney, Melbourne, etc are more like London which has several boroughs.

The only Labor seat on the Gold Coast is Gaven and they are most likely going to lose that seat in 2024.

Nether, I consider anything south of the Logan river “outer gold coast” I would also consider the federal seat of Forde to have parts of both Logan and the Gold Coast (and hinterland)

Also I strongly disagree with your assertion that Moreton Bay, Logan, Redlands etc, are part of Brisbane. They are completely different LGAs and council areas. I don’t remember having to vote for Brisbane lord mayor in 2020. I also will say that Moreton Bay gets a different EKKA holiday than Brisbane does.

You are right that Melbourne is different, as areas such as the Mornington peninsula are considered “Melbourne” but they have their own council areas.

Im also not sure how you can be so sure about Labor losing Gaven especially if Labor dump Anastasia. An LNP majority is unlikely and an LNP minority is the most likely outcome at this stage. Labor is on the nose but the LNP has failed to make a breakthrough. They are not winning Aspley, Mansfield and Springwood which are must wins for majority unless they take Rockhampton and Mulgrave, etc.

A hung parliament would be interesting.. .. one guaranteed..right vote…only. what kap do is anyone’s guess

If you’re trying to define which city’s orbit a place falls into, best to look at it culturally and economically rather than politically. Beenleigh (and Macalister) is probably economically in the orbit of both places, but perhaps a little more so to Brisbane given the ease of commuting there by public transport. Culturally it’s certainly a lot more like Logan than the Gold Coast, from having spent time there.

I consider Brisbane to have four LGAs like how Sydney and Melbourne have over 20. They get different Ekka holidays because they need to divide it by LGA not by city.

But @Daniel T I do agree that Forde does overlap a bit with the Gold Coast, especially in the Hinterland. But it is mostly based in Logan.

@mick i highly doubt it will be a hung parliament and if it was KAP would side with the LNP as it would be electoal suicide to back labor though they would haggle and pretend to be on the fence

This maybe a seat that Labor will need to win in the next period of to offset any future losses such as McConnel to the Greens and to ensure they have a majority. Another potential seat is Theodore both of these seats are more inland so not as affluent as waterfront Gold Coast seats.

@Daniel T – there’s no way anyone who lives in Macalister, considers themselves ‘outer Gold Coast’ – Beenleigh and surrounds is Logan through and through and if anything ‘outer Brisbane’.

Anyways, back to Coomera – this is one of only two LNP seats that I think could be in trouble this time, only due to the massive population boom. But even then, I think the Gold Coast will swing back to the LNP this time for it to be safe for Crandon.

I think PRP that the Labor government being on the nose and how Dutton is pitching as a Federal leader probably help bolster the Coomera margin despite it being a possible long term Labor target due to demographics.

Considering margins in Bonney and Theodore, you have to say the MP here seems like an underperformer. I believe he has also never been a front bencher. If I was an LNP member in the seat I would have been hoping for a generational change and have found future front bencher to run this time. It’s good they done that with Stoker Dillon and Vorster etc, but you have to wonder about a few of their other seats like Burnett, Mermaid Beach and Scenic Rim.

I also think some of the front benchers probably should have handed over their safe seats over their time in opposition. Especially ones who were in when Beattie was premier. Missed opportunities really to renew their safe seats.

@LNPinsider, often a party will keep a sitting MP in a marginal seat if they are good at sandbagging it and if they have a strong personal vote. I’m not sure if Crandon is one of them. His seat has mainly been marginal except for 2012 – 2015. I guess they had to play it safe, rather than risk losing the seat. An up and comer may or may not win a marginal seat. I do agree that with an almost certain upswing for the LNP, now is a good time for some renewal.

I have this view that a safe seat is better suited for a rising star or potential minister, rather than a backbencher who knows how to play factional games.

Labor’s preselected Chris Johnson, who ran in 2017 and 2020 – coming very close to winning last time.

I suspect Coomera will blow out to the LNP this time and it’ll be Crandon’s last term.

@PRP what makes you think the LNP will lose here in 2028?

LNP will lose here in 2028 or 2032 because of demographic changes. Lots of younger families moving into the area.

I think PRP was referring to the fact that Crandon might retire in 2028, not necessarily lose re-election. If the margin is secure enough (10% or greater), then Coomera might still remain with the LNP even as an open seat in 2028.

@Yoh A makes sense. @AA they may still be able to find a way to win in 2028 and 2032.

This seat and Theodore have huge demographic changes.These 2 plus corrumbin ( excuse mispelli ng) are fertile hunting ground for labor

Sorry – I should’ve clarified, yes I think this will be Crandon’s last term as he’s in his early 70s and will probably retire in 2028. More over the Coomera of today will look vastly different in 2028 and there’ll be a new seat squeezed in here – so an opportunity for possibly two new LNP MPs.

@PRP ah I see yeah that makes more sense.

Th@prp he will likely be the last member for cooperation as the rest of coomera and the river will be moved out of thie division along with upper cooperation and wongawallan in my opinion so unless they keep the coomera name and abolish Theodore which is unlikely since the majority of the new districts voters will come from Theodore. Il be suggesting either Ormeau or Pimpala for the new name

Meaning he will be the only ever member for coomera

Poll Bludger shows 5 Candidates on the Ballot in the order of LNP, Labor, Greens, One Nation & LCQ. this seat also has the largest enrollment with 53,805
https://www.pollbludger.net/qld2024/LA.htm?s=Coomera

Legalise Cannabis could outpoll the Greens here based on what we saw in Fadden. I think the less woke leftist Greens voters are going to teals and Legalise Cannabis nowadays whereas the ecosocialist progressive voters are sticking with the Greens.

But if the enrolment here is over 50,000 then this will definitely be subject to redistribution and as John pointed out Michael Crandon would be the only member to ever hold the seat of Coomera if it gets abolished before 2028.

the result here may be somewhat skewed and the margin probly wont be accurate given the seat is over 1/3 over quota. micheal crandon howver has the biggest constiuency in qld he may actually get more votes then some districts have electors

@ NP
Interestingly Legalise Cannabis does better in outer suburban/region seats such as Longman, Cessnock etc. They did well in Outer Melbourne as well. They are more of a singlei issue party so do not focus on matters such as Palestine, changing the flag etc. The WA Legalise Cannabis MP is known for sending controversial weed themed Christmas card.

@john, I’m not sure about that. I’m not anticipating at this point that the Gold Coast divisions will swing as hard as the state-wide swing.

15% swing to LNP,

Labor party is officially dead, I wouldn’t rule out 20 years of LNP government at this rate.

They said that in 2012 too.

This seat is Labor’s best chance in more friendly environment not now though

@ MQ
Yes this will be a seat Labor wlll need to pick up next time they are in a position to form government. Glass House and Theodore are others Labor should target.

@nimalan all 3 of those seats are getting massively redistributed

@real talk if Daniel t says it you better believe it him an Mick are probably the most rusted on labor people here

After over 40 years closer to 50 years alp membership I am a leopard who will not change my spots now.

Daniel/Real Talk, how long the new LNP administration remains in power will ultimately depend on what direction they take. If Crisafulli can control the more unruly members of his party and focus on core issues (infrastructure development and cost of living) then the LNP would be like the NSW Coalition and survive a decade or more in power.

The core issue is how will. Mr C on the assumption he is elected, manage the extra funding needed for promises made without unpopular cut backs or increased taxes

I’m simply saying that many people – including perhaps many of those who post on these hallowed, pixellated grounds – were confidently declaring the death of Labor in 2012. Many of us would do well to observe history, rather than publish fan fiction.

@Daniel T

Yesterday you said you weren’t cheerleading for the LNP. So far, you’ve predicted an LNP government will last 20 years, that Warrego will be held on a 90% LNP margin, and that Burdekin will have a 24% swing to the LNP. I think I’m noticing a pattern here…

@AA I don’t know where the 20 year government thing came from (link please) but he said 80% for Warrego which I agree with and Burdekin very well could have a +24% swing to the LNP.

Link please? You are so time poor you can’t scroll up and read other comments?

@NP he said he “wouldn’t rule out” 20 years in power earlier in this thread, and at one point in another he did say Warrego could potentially reach 90% TPP as well.

Either way, while I think most of his predictions are wildly overestimating the LNP and have replied objecting to some of them, at the end of the day there’s probably not much point in arguing over them too much, especially if it ends up devolving into personal/rude comments (Not that it has so far, this site is generally very good at keeping things civil.)

@Real Talk I’m on holidays in Thailand.

No one knows how much qld seats will swing but there is a ceiling on the global figure that is the projected 55/45 vote. There are only a certain number of seats and if a Warrego or a Condamine swung massively then some where else there is next to no swing. Every seat just cannot swing by double digits. So far it seems that no separate vote patterns have been noted for gold coast sunshine coast.Brisbane provincial cities or the more rural non Labor seats.

Via opinion polls. This is of course important as Queensland is the most decentralised state in Australia.

@NP Given your prolific activity each day here, you could’ve fooled me.

@Mick You’ve hit the nail on the head – “every seat just cannot swing by double digits” – Queensland is a richly diverse place, not some homogenous society that obediently obeys the opinion polls.