Coomera – Queensland 2024

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  1. classic mortgage belt area now with young families so bread/butter issues will be important as a service delivery issues.

  2. no chance Labor wins this in 2024 while on the nose. maybe 2027/2028 (early elections are possible if 3/4 or so of parliament vote to dissolve, the governor dismisses parliament, or a no-confidence vote succeeds and no government is formed in a certain time)

    a redistribution after the next election will determine how this will go in 2028, but gut feeling is this becomes safer for LNP on newer boundaries and unless Crisafulli is another Newman, will probably hold until Labor wins a decent majority or improves on the Gold Coast from their disastrous 1-2 seats (although I count Macalister as Gold Coast since Beenleigh really is Gold Coast)

  3. @Daniel T Beenleigh is in Brisbane. It falls within the City of Logan LGA. Macalister is also not on the Gold Coast given that it entirely falls within the Logan LGA. Just thought I might clear that up.

    Unlike Sydney, Melbourne, Perth or Adelaide (but somewhat similar to Newcastle, the Central Coast and Wollongong), South East Queensland has fewer, more populated LGAs. The Gold Coast, the Sunshine Coast and Ipswich all have one LGA each while Brisbane has four: the City of Brisbane, the City of Logan, the City of Moreton Bay and the City of Redlands. This means that in an American-style system, SEQ (particularly Brisbane) can be more easily divided like New York City (which has five boroughs: Manhattan, Brooklyn, Queens, The Bronx and Staten Island), while Sydney, Melbourne, etc can be more easily divided like Los Angeles County (which has 88 cities inside it that all form part of one larger city and one county: Los Angeles). Or in the UK you could say that Sydney, Melbourne, etc are more like London which has several boroughs.

    The only Labor seat on the Gold Coast is Gaven and they are most likely going to lose that seat in 2024.

  4. Nether, I consider anything south of the Logan river “outer gold coast” I would also consider the federal seat of Forde to have parts of both Logan and the Gold Coast (and hinterland)

    Also I strongly disagree with your assertion that Moreton Bay, Logan, Redlands etc, are part of Brisbane. They are completely different LGAs and council areas. I don’t remember having to vote for Brisbane lord mayor in 2020. I also will say that Moreton Bay gets a different EKKA holiday than Brisbane does.

    You are right that Melbourne is different, as areas such as the Mornington peninsula are considered “Melbourne” but they have their own council areas.

    Im also not sure how you can be so sure about Labor losing Gaven especially if Labor dump Anastasia. An LNP majority is unlikely and an LNP minority is the most likely outcome at this stage. Labor is on the nose but the LNP has failed to make a breakthrough. They are not winning Aspley, Mansfield and Springwood which are must wins for majority unless they take Rockhampton and Mulgrave, etc.

  5. A hung parliament would be interesting.. .. one guaranteed..right vote…only. what kap do is anyone’s guess

  6. If you’re trying to define which city’s orbit a place falls into, best to look at it culturally and economically rather than politically. Beenleigh (and Macalister) is probably economically in the orbit of both places, but perhaps a little more so to Brisbane given the ease of commuting there by public transport. Culturally it’s certainly a lot more like Logan than the Gold Coast, from having spent time there.

  7. I consider Brisbane to have four LGAs like how Sydney and Melbourne have over 20. They get different Ekka holidays because they need to divide it by LGA not by city.

    But @Daniel T I do agree that Forde does overlap a bit with the Gold Coast, especially in the Hinterland. But it is mostly based in Logan.

  8. @mick i highly doubt it will be a hung parliament and if it was KAP would side with the LNP as it would be electoal suicide to back labor though they would haggle and pretend to be on the fence

  9. This maybe a seat that Labor will need to win in the next period of to offset any future losses such as McConnel to the Greens and to ensure they have a majority. Another potential seat is Theodore both of these seats are more inland so not as affluent as waterfront Gold Coast seats.

  10. @Daniel T – there’s no way anyone who lives in Macalister, considers themselves ‘outer Gold Coast’ – Beenleigh and surrounds is Logan through and through and if anything ‘outer Brisbane’.

    Anyways, back to Coomera – this is one of only two LNP seats that I think could be in trouble this time, only due to the massive population boom. But even then, I think the Gold Coast will swing back to the LNP this time for it to be safe for Crandon.

  11. I think PRP that the Labor government being on the nose and how Dutton is pitching as a Federal leader probably help bolster the Coomera margin despite it being a possible long term Labor target due to demographics.

    Considering margins in Bonney and Theodore, you have to say the MP here seems like an underperformer. I believe he has also never been a front bencher. If I was an LNP member in the seat I would have been hoping for a generational change and have found future front bencher to run this time. It’s good they done that with Stoker Dillon and Vorster etc, but you have to wonder about a few of their other seats like Burnett, Mermaid Beach and Scenic Rim.

    I also think some of the front benchers probably should have handed over their safe seats over their time in opposition. Especially ones who were in when Beattie was premier. Missed opportunities really to renew their safe seats.

  12. @LNPinsider, often a party will keep a sitting MP in a marginal seat if they are good at sandbagging it and if they have a strong personal vote. I’m not sure if Crandon is one of them. His seat has mainly been marginal except for 2012 – 2015. I guess they had to play it safe, rather than risk losing the seat. An up and comer may or may not win a marginal seat. I do agree that with an almost certain upswing for the LNP, now is a good time for some renewal.

    I have this view that a safe seat is better suited for a rising star or potential minister, rather than a backbencher who knows how to play factional games.

  13. Labor’s preselected Chris Johnson, who ran in 2017 and 2020 – coming very close to winning last time.

    I suspect Coomera will blow out to the LNP this time and it’ll be Crandon’s last term.

  14. LNP will lose here in 2028 or 2032 because of demographic changes. Lots of younger families moving into the area.

  15. I think PRP was referring to the fact that Crandon might retire in 2028, not necessarily lose re-election. If the margin is secure enough (10% or greater), then Coomera might still remain with the LNP even as an open seat in 2028.

  16. This seat and Theodore have huge demographic changes.These 2 plus corrumbin ( excuse mispelli ng) are fertile hunting ground for labor

  17. Sorry – I should’ve clarified, yes I think this will be Crandon’s last term as he’s in his early 70s and will probably retire in 2028. More over the Coomera of today will look vastly different in 2028 and there’ll be a new seat squeezed in here – so an opportunity for possibly two new LNP MPs.


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