Clayfield – Queensland 2024

Another seat of two halves, with Sandgate Rd being the dividing line between the inner-city west and the wealthy east, Brisbane’s equivalent of Vaucluse, Toorak and Peppermint Grove. I think a lot rests on which way the yuppies of Hamilton end up voting. Hamilton booth went from 57% LNP 2PP to 52% last time and could cross into a Labor majority this time around.

@ Wilson methinks this seat and Mogill could be teal target

Nimalan, the teals don’t exist in Queensland and haven’t performed well at state elections besides. I would suggest your view is projecting NSW and Victorian federal outcomes onto a Queensland state election, and I disagree with it for that reason.

Agree Wilson, the structure of Brisbane with only small pockets of ‘affluent’ inner suburbs doesn’t work well for the teal movement and it is better for the Greens to dominate the inner suburban districts instead.

i agree the Teals do not exist yet in QLD but wondering if they were to enter whether this area demographically would be a good fit?

Nimalan, it’s certainly one of the most blue-green places in the state, and if it were in Sydney or Melbourne I’d agree that it would be a good opportunity for the teals. However, I wonder if their opportunity to make inroads in Brisbane has come and gone. They certainly filled the gap the Greens were aiming to exploit down south in 2022, but in Brisbane the reverse seems to have happened, the Greens took that opportunity instead. I haven’t seen anything so far to suggest that momentum has abated.

I wouldn’t say it’s impossible for a teal to win a seat in Queensland, because Nicole Johnston at Brisbane City Council level fits a lot of the criteria for a teal independent. However, it will be very hard to gain attention now when the Greens are at an all-time high in Queensland and the Liberals will be throwing resources at their marginal seats to retain them and form government.

Labor outpolled the Greens in nearly every booth within Clayfield at the federal election. It should be way down the list as a target for them. I think Libs would still win this on federal figures

Fair Point Wilson, this seat may become a LNP/Green instead of LNP/ALP after 2024 state election

Clayfield’s already very marginal so it really makes no sense for a teal candidate to pop up here all of a sudden. Tim Nicholls only really holds on here out of sheer luck more than anything else. He’s not liked by the party base and not a good campaigner. It’s just that last election the Greens campaign imploded and Labor didn’t even try.

Clayfield’s slightly more conservative overall than other inner city seats and there’s clearly a very rusted on LNP gentry in the eastern suburbs, but there are more renters in Clayfield overall than there are in Cooper or Maiwar. Greens should at least treat this as a ‘maybe’, after McConnel, Cooper and I guess Greenslopes.

In general I don’t feel that a Teal candidate (or IND candidates more broadly) will have a very good chance at winning or making much of an impact in a seat that is already 2PP marginal/competitive between the ALP and LNP. Neither side is likely to want to cede ground to an IND in a contest where ALP and LNP (and potentially GRN) think is winnable. This leaves little room for a Teal/IND to convince enough voters to switch to IND in order to make the 2CP, compete in terms of resources, and cut through with a message. Anecdotally, I feel we have seen evidence of this in a couple of electorates recently – Boothby (Jo Dyer – Federal 2022), Casey (Claire Ferres Miles – Federal 2022), Albert Park (Georgie Dragwidge – Victoria 2022), Hawthorn (Melissa Lowe – Victoria 2022).

West of Sandgate Road, especially west of the railway line, has a higher percentage of under 40s, renters, apartment-dwellers and students. This would be a three-way contest if they were in the same electorate with the ALP on top. If the Greens tried, they could win the western part. East of Sandgate Road is fairly safe Liberal, against Labor.

I agree with previous posters that it’s far from being a Greens or teal target. I do think that Teal/Ind success requires a key ingredient – LNP Government (just like federally in 2022 and in NSW in 2023) or at least running against a Government MP. Teal/Ind candidates can use issues like integrity, corruption, the environment, Nimby matters etc. against them. It’s much trickier when running against an opposition MP. In 2022, teals campaigned could leverage Morrison Government’s baggage against their opponents and remind voters that voting teal is a step closer to defeating the Morrison Government.

It’s also competitive for independents when running against controversial or locally unpopular MPs e.g. Tony Abbott in 2019 or Kristina Keneally in 2022.

On paper, as far as demographics suggest, Clayfield does seem like it fits the general profile for a Greens target seat.

On age-composition, it stands out with high amounts of voters between 20 – 34. It has a high amount of renters (about half) and high amounts of people living in flats & apartments (more than half). On demographics, this division reminds me a lot of Heffron in NSW, which also contains an airport within it.

https://pseph.io/queensland-election-2024/profile/clayfield

Assessment wise, the LNP are already vulnerable here. The difficult part will be overcoming Labor’s strong position on 2CP numbers.

I definitely think that Clayfield is at least a better target than Moggill as some punters were suggesting in the Moggill profile. Moggill, while although fitting within Greens held Ryan, exhibits too many characteristics of a typical Coalition division:

#1 highest Age 45 – 54 in Queensland: 16.01%
#1 highest Median Household Income in Queensland: 2689
#1 highest amount of dwellings With 2 Motor Vehicles in Queensland: 46.51%
#3 highest amount Detached Housing in Queensland: 94.82%
#4 highest Median Family Income in Queensland: 2986

#1 lowest Age 25 – 34 in Queensland: 7.26%
#1 lowest Renters in Queensland: 12.97%
#4 lowest Community Housing in Queensland: 0.10%
#5 lowest Dwellings With No Motor Vehicles in Queensland: 2.06%

https://pseph.io/queensland-election-2024/profile/moggill

I would also caution that Clayfield does not make sense as a priority or main target for 2024, just a development target for future elections.

from the BCC Results of Hamilton & the bits of Marchant it looks to be even more marginal seat at best for the LNP.

Clayfield’s population has rapidly increased post-pandemic. There are lots of new apartments and with them, came lots of 20 and 30-something year-olds, first-home buyers and renters. Clayfield’s enrolments are well above the state average. I sense that given the demographic changes, the LNP primary vote will go down, unless a major stuff-up or a disendorsement happens.

@SEQ Observer, did you create that site yourself? Will there be federal election content?

@ Votante
That is an interesting point as lowering the median age will help the Greens over Labor as well. In Brisbane at the 2022 fed election, this was the only part where Labor outpolled the Greens. It is the same in Higgins where Labor outpolled the Greens narrowly in the old money parts. In the Hamilton ward, the Greens for the first time outpolled Labor last month.

@Nimalan, Higgins and Clayfield are alike in that the western parts are where most people are either in their 20s or 30s or a renter or apartment-dweller. The middle and eastern parts are where the old money is and strongly LNP-voting and Labor still outpolls the Greens.

I expect a swing to Labor/Greens in Hamilton and Ascot due to the growing apartment dweller vote, renter vote and youth vote.

This is and Coomera are the only two LNP seats I see in danger as falling, this election. Whilst both incumbents start favourites, it wouldn’t take much for them to be lost. Clayfield due to gentrification, Coomera due to the massive boom in population which makes it impossible to predict who they’ll vote for.

Clayfield looked way more precarious to me last year before Labor’s polling crashed through the earth, but I really don’t see the LNP in trouble any more. Labor will do absolutely no real campaigning here whatsoever beyond the bare minimum and I doubt the Greens will try much harder either, but will probably beat Labor for 2nd place, finally. Nicholls should still win pretty easily, probably with a less dramatic swing than average, but still. Something pretty significant would have to change (again) to make Clayfield interesting. Maybe Labor recovers in the polls, maybe Tim Nicholls could go insane like John Meyer did.

Well the greens might make a moderately decent effort, but won’t be looking at this as a likely winner compared to their labor targets.

Agree furtive, Tim Nicholls is still favoured to retain his seat, although he is likely to end up receiving a less than favourable swing (probably at least 3-4% under the state wide average)

I wonder how long Nicholls continues in office before he decides to retire. He’s been an elected politician since 2000, serving six years as a Brisbane councillor and since then as the member for Clayfield. He is currently shadow Attorney General and Justice Minister and should continue these portfolios in government, assuming the LNP wins the election. I would imagine they will be pretty demanding roles though, given the huge focus on youth crime from the LNP this election. If he retires in 2028, Clayfield would be firmly in play then.

@ Wilson, i think it maybe in play for Greens in future but i doubt about Labor they seem to be in long term decline in Inner Affluent Brisbane. I feel gentrification is hurting Labor and benefiting the Greens.