Chatsworth – Queensland 2024

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  1. Chatsworth is one of the 2012 seats that the LNP has been able to hold on, against the tide in 15, 17 and even 2020. I can see it falling to Labor when Minnikin retires, but for this election, it should be a safe LNP retain.

    One of the bright spots for the LNP in Brisbane.

  2. PRP, even as an open seat when Minnikin retires – I believe the LNP may still have a slight edge. The suburbs covered by this district seem to be trending more towards the conservative side, as shown by the results in overlapping Doboy ward where Labor has slowly lost ground over time.

  3. There’s not really that much overlap between Doboy and Chatsworth when you look at the maps. There’s a small partner of Carina, and the sections of Tingalpa and Belmont between Wynnum Rd and Dairy Swamp Rd, but the rest is mutually exclusive. BCC elections generally aren’t a great guide to state elections anyway, as the LNP dominates BCC wards but does not dominate state seats within BCC.

  4. Fair point Wilson, most of Chatsworth falls into Chandler ward which is safe LNP rather than Doboy. Nevertheless, the suburbs contained in this seat (particularly ones like Chandler and Belmont) are low density and populated with older residents rather than young people or families, which would be indicative of a seat that will back the conservatives more often.

  5. @ Yoh An

    Chandler is among the most expensive suburbs in Brisbane so perhaps it is strengthening for the Libs also virtually no renters in Chandler etc.

  6. Agree Nimalan, I feel that the suburbs in this electorate (Chandler and others) are very similar to places like Baulkham Hills and surrounds located in the Hills District of Sydney.

  7. Chandler is a bit more rural than Baulkham Hills, and house prices are so high in that the acerages out here will never be subdivided. I think it’s more like Dural in Sydney.

  8. @AA I wouldn’t go as far to say it’s like Dural. Kellyville or Rouse Hill might be better comparisons.

  9. East of Gateway Motorway is quite conservative and semi-rural.
    Gumdale, Chandler and Belmont are strongly Christian, wealthy, and have a high percentage of households that are nuclear families.

  10. @Nether Portal I’m talking about Chandler. Very much a semi-rural area with big acreages. And there’s no plan to subdivide it anytime soon. That’s why I liken it more to Dural than Baulkham Hills, Rouse Hill or Kellyville. The latter area especially is experiencing subdivision.

  11. Semi-rural parts of Gumdale is quite like Dural too. Maybe Carindale Heights and the suburban part of Belmont are like Baulkham Hills.

  12. what are the odds that Adrian Schrinner decides to contest this seat once Minnikin decides to step down?

  13. I think he’s too focused on local government. I think there would be a lot of up and coming figures in the party who would be looking at this seat.

  14. @Caleb – I think its more likely that Schrinner runs for Bonner, once Ross retires. Steve will be a Minister in a few months and will stay around for a while longer.


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