LNP 1.3%
Incumbent MP
Steve Minnikin, since 2012.
Geography
South-Eastern parts of the City of Brisbane. Chatsworth covers the Brisbane suburbs of Belmont, Carindale, Carina Heights, Gumdale, Chandler and parts of Carina and Tingalpa.
History
Chatsworth was first created at the 1960 election. The seat was dominated by the Liberal Party in its early years, with the Liberals holding the seat from 1960 to 1977.
In 1977 the Labor Party made a recovery against the governing National-Liberal coalition, gaining twelve seats. In Chatsworth the seat was won by the ALP’s Terry Mackenroth.
Mackenroth became a minister in the new Labor government in 1989, serving as a minister until Labor lost power in 1996. He returned to the ministry in the new Labor government in 1998.
In 2000, Mackenroth was elected Deputy Premier in the Beattie government. He became Treasurer in 2001 and served in both those roles until his retirement in 2005.
Mackenroth had held on to Chatsworth in 2004 with a 61.4% margin. This margin collapsed at the 2005 by-election, with the Liberal candidate, Brisbane City councillor Michael Caltabiano, winning the seat with a 13.9% swing.
Caltabiano was one of only seven Liberal MPs after his by-election win and he quickly rose through the ranks of the opposition. He was appointed Shadow Treasurer shortly before the 2006 state election.
At that election, Caltabiano lost Chatsworth to the Labor candidate, former sports presenter Chris Bombolas. The ALP won by barely 400 votes. Bombolas became a parliamentary secretary in the Labor government in 2007 and then retired due to poor health in 2009.
At the 2009 state election, the Liberal National Party ran Angela Caltabiano, wife of the former MP. The ALP ran firefighter Steve Kilburn.
The result was extremely close, with the ALP’s Kilburn eventually declared the winner. The case went to court and after six months the ALP was confirmed as the winner, winning by only 85 votes.
In 2012, Kilburn was defeated by LNP candidate Steve Minnikin. Minnikin has been re-elected three times.
- Steve Minnikin (Liberal National)
- Eliza Campbell (Family First)
- James Smart (Greens)
- Lisa O’Donnell (Labor)
- Jasmine Harte (One Nation)
Assessment
Chatsworth is a marginal LNP seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Steve Minnikin | Liberal National | 14,614 | 46.3 | -3.5 |
| Lisa O’Donnell | Labor | 12,497 | 39.6 | +1.6 |
| Kathryn Fry | Greens | 2,941 | 9.3 | -2.8 |
| Aaron Clarke | One Nation | 965 | 3.1 | +3.1 |
| Madonna Guy | Informed Medical Options | 362 | 1.1 | +1.2 |
| Andrew Crook | United Australia | 191 | 0.6 | +0.6 |
| Informal | 800 | 2.5 |
2020 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Steve Minnikin | Liberal National | 16,191 | 51.3 | -1.6 |
| Lisa O’Donnell | Labor | 15,379 | 48.7 | +1.6 |
Booths in Chatsworth have been divided into three areas: central, east and west.
The LNP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in the east (53.5%) while Labor polled 50.5% in the centre and 58.7% in the west. These votes were outweighed by the LNP polling over 52% in the pre-poll and other votes.
| Voter group | GRN prim % | LNP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| East | 7.9 | 53.5 | 3,054 | 9.7 |
| Central | 9.0 | 49.5 | 2,636 | 8.3 |
| West | 17.0 | 41.3 | 2,233 | 7.1 |
| Other votes | 9.9 | 52.1 | 13,486 | 42.7 |
| Pre-poll | 7.4 | 52.2 | 10,161 | 32.2 |
Election results in Chatsworth at the 2020 Queensland state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal National Party, Labor and the Greens.
Chatsworth is one of the 2012 seats that the LNP has been able to hold on, against the tide in 15, 17 and even 2020. I can see it falling to Labor when Minnikin retires, but for this election, it should be a safe LNP retain.
One of the bright spots for the LNP in Brisbane.
PRP, even as an open seat when Minnikin retires – I believe the LNP may still have a slight edge. The suburbs covered by this district seem to be trending more towards the conservative side, as shown by the results in overlapping Doboy ward where Labor has slowly lost ground over time.
There’s not really that much overlap between Doboy and Chatsworth when you look at the maps. There’s a small partner of Carina, and the sections of Tingalpa and Belmont between Wynnum Rd and Dairy Swamp Rd, but the rest is mutually exclusive. BCC elections generally aren’t a great guide to state elections anyway, as the LNP dominates BCC wards but does not dominate state seats within BCC.
Fair point Wilson, most of Chatsworth falls into Chandler ward which is safe LNP rather than Doboy. Nevertheless, the suburbs contained in this seat (particularly ones like Chandler and Belmont) are low density and populated with older residents rather than young people or families, which would be indicative of a seat that will back the conservatives more often.
@ Yoh An
Chandler is among the most expensive suburbs in Brisbane so perhaps it is strengthening for the Libs also virtually no renters in Chandler etc.
Agree Nimalan, I feel that the suburbs in this electorate (Chandler and others) are very similar to places like Baulkham Hills and surrounds located in the Hills District of Sydney.
Chandler is a bit more rural than Baulkham Hills, and house prices are so high in that the acerages out here will never be subdivided. I think it’s more like Dural in Sydney.
@AA I wouldn’t go as far to say it’s like Dural. Kellyville or Rouse Hill might be better comparisons.
East of Gateway Motorway is quite conservative and semi-rural.
Gumdale, Chandler and Belmont are strongly Christian, wealthy, and have a high percentage of households that are nuclear families.
Dies this seat overlap the federal electorate of Bonner
@Mick yes it does. It also overlaps with Greenslopes, Lytton and Mansfield.
@Nether Portal I’m talking about Chandler. Very much a semi-rural area with big acreages. And there’s no plan to subdivide it anytime soon. That’s why I liken it more to Dural than Baulkham Hills, Rouse Hill or Kellyville. The latter area especially is experiencing subdivision.
Semi-rural parts of Gumdale is quite like Dural too. Maybe Carindale Heights and the suburban part of Belmont are like Baulkham Hills.
what are the odds that Adrian Schrinner decides to contest this seat once Minnikin decides to step down?
I think he’s too focused on local government. I think there would be a lot of up and coming figures in the party who would be looking at this seat.
@Caleb – I think its more likely that Schrinner runs for Bonner, once Ross retires. Steve will be a Minister in a few months and will stay around for a while longer.
Poll Bludger has 4 candidates on the Ballot in order of LNP, Labor, Greens & One Nation.
https://www.pollbludger.net/qld2024/LA.htm?s=Chatsworth
@Caleb, LNP to retain comfortably, Greens vote to increase. I’m going to predict the order in some seats but not seats like this in the city since if it’s just four candidates it’s pretty obvious One Nation are last and the Greens are third and we know the LNP and Greens vote will go up, Labor’s vote will go down and One Nation’s vote will remain static in the city.
I don’t see why One Nation bothers running in seats like this, Bulimba, etc. They stick to campaigning hard in seats like Keppel and Mirani where they could win instead of running 20 ghost candidates. I don’t even think the Greens are running in every seat, I’m pretty sure they’re just focusing on seats where their vote actually at least somewhat even remotely counts (i.e they aren’t running in seats like Gregory or Warrego where the LNP are gonna get 75-80% TPP and they won’t even crack 5%).
Lol the One Nation candidate here just got disendorsed only a day after nominations closed.
@Laine why?
@NP She’s apparently an ex-exotic dancer and had suggestive photos uploaded online. I guess they picked her last minute, no idea how they could’ve missed that stuff.
Not surprised by a One Nation disendorsement. They lack a proper candidate vetting process. They rushed and were desperate to get quantity over quality.
Then again ONP picked Ashby in Keppel so more poor choices don’t surprise
I’m guessing it was more likely this: https://www.couriermail.com.au/ipad/dancer-lured-kill-victim-court-told/news-story/7ff74a66323fa885be2d7acd68a0772c that got her disendorsed, rather than the photos.
@oguh Yeah yikes it was definitely that.
One Nation always picks the most insane candidates for seats they do terribly in. This is next level.
Do One Nation candidates even get preselected or are they all just randomly picked with the legit candidates being captain’s picks by Pauline Hanson.
Regarding the Family First candidate, her page says “She stands as a strong voice for faith, freedom and family…” – you’d have thought they’d make sure to put family first in a listing like that.
But seriously, she’s clearly not a serious candidate, given she clearly lives in Rockhampton…
Round the edges
Onp nil
Noosa ind hold
Kap +1 to 4
Green +1 to +2
Rockhampton ind strealow
Maryborough alp hold
Keppel alp hold
Alp retain Gavan
Alp retain.Mackay
@Mick Quinlivan I will eat my hat and smear it with dog shit if Labor holds Keppel.
Keppel is the seat i picked which should go but won’t
@john that is extreme.. discussed with my dog
2 packs of dog treats are ok
Keppel is ‘graced’ by the presence of Mr Ashby of onp. Just check Wikipedia about him…. believe it or not he will harm the lnp
Apart from Gladstone, I doubt that Labor will be holding any of their seats, and even Gladstone is questionable at this stage.
Even though there is Ashby in Keppel, I suspect the swing to the LNP will be so strong they don’t even need any preferences from One Nation to win it.
Why is the media only reporting on Harte’s past as an exotic dancer and having “racy photos” on the internet, and not the accusations in the article @oguh shared? Is the former more egregious than the latter?
Labor would be losing Keppel in anything other than a Labor ladslide, and even then it would be close.
To say they could win now indicates no local knowledge or a quirky sense of humor.
@Nicholas
Either the charges were dropped or she was found Not Guilty, so that can’t be brought up.
Hence, ‘racy photos’, whatever those are.
@mick umm i think you meant Nether portal?
labor will not hold keppel it will be a lnp gain they will lose mackay and gaven too, green will possibly gain +2, maryborough 50/50 wouldnt give rockhampton to stretlow just yet even though i want too for long term benit to the lnp
Agree with all John, Gympie and NP – I think the Gladstone will be the only regional seat Labor holds after this election and even then, they are only slightly favoured to retain it.
Most seats outside SEQ are ‘close calls’ with Labor only having at best a 50/50 chance of retaining with some being considered ‘write offs’ – those being Bundaberg, Nicklin and Hervey Bay where the LNP are strongly favoured to recover.
Yes I did
Post Vince Lester Keppel has a bias in favour of Labor. The polls are suggesting a roughly 8% swing on a uniform basis. Now We know that the swing will not be so some seats will defy this. I tried to
Pick somewhere that might not swing as much or some reason for a possible aberration within a couple of percent of the global swing so.i picked here.
You’ve got no on the ground knowledge of events in Keppel, Mick?
Mick, I probably believe Cook is the seat that will ‘defy’ the statewide swing just like it did in 2012 with only a small (5% or so) swing against Labor. This is the seat alongside Maryborough where Labor has a fighting chance of holding on against the LNP surge/deluge. Other seats like Cairns, Mulgrave and possibly Thuringowa are also ones where Labor is still competitive and where the party could potentially retain them.
@ Gympie…. no
@Yoh An I agree with what you’ve laid out. I would also say that the Gold Coast divisions will too have a softer swing than state-wide. Right now, something like 7%. Enough to have Scanlon line-ball.
In contrast, expecting divisions in Logan, Redlands and Moreton Bay regions to exceed 10% swings. Enough to make divisions like Macalister, Logan and Kurwongbah competitive. And enough to make divisions like Pumicestone, Springwood and Redlands surely lost.
@yoh i thin cook will be competitive due to the nature of the seat and the fact KAP is not yet ready to win it. i think KAP could be in a competitive postion to win the seat in 2028. given that the lnp will lose ts best parts in the south to traegar Labor will lose thuringowa because the combined lnp kap. they will lose carins and mulgrave as well.