Cairns – Queensland 2024

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  1. Historically a solid Labor seat, save for one term during the Newman LNP landslide. ALP retain.

  2. LNP gain but I think it’ll be one they’ll struggle to sandbag in 2028. Much more of a traditional Labor seat than Barron River.

    Healy might even try and win the seat back if he loses it in October.

  3. LNP pickup, but not by a big margin. I doubt Cairns would swing as much as most other regional seats. To be fair, Cairns LGA itself has a pretty big urban centre and is more dependent on tourism and social and healthcare services than farming or mining.

    It’s historically Labor held, save for the 2012 landslide, but I wouldn’t call it a stronghold or red wall seat. I’d say KAP would do better than One Nation if they’re running.

  4. Transposing federal and state results is never ideal but it can be interesting. Based on the 2022 federal results, all of the seats in Rockhampton, Mackay and Townsville would be won by the LNP – fairly comfortably. Same goes for Bundaberg, Maryborough and Hervey Bay. However, the seats in Cairns would be line ball and could go either way – local and state factors could come into it but the ALP might hold onto one or some. Possibly Barron River could end up a more likely Labor hold than Cairns.


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