ALP 20.7% vs ON
Incumbent MP
Lance McCallum, since 2020.
Geography
South-East Queensland. Bundamba covers the eastern Ipswich suburbs of Goodna, Redbank, Blackstone, Ebbw Vale, Riverview, Collingwood Park, Bellbird Park, Redbank Plains, Brookwater, Springfield Lakes and parts of Bundamba and Springfield. The seat covers the eastern parts of Ipswich local government area.
History
The seat of Bundamba existed from 1873 to 1912. The current seat was created in 1992, and has been held by the ALP since then.
Bob Gibbs won the seat for the ALP in 1992. Gibbs had served as member for Wolston since 1977, and moved to Bundamba when his former seat was abolished.
Gibbs served as a minister in the Goss government from 1989 to 1996. He again served as a minister in the Beattie government from 1998 until his resignation from Parliament in 1999.
The seat was won by the ALP’s Jo-Ann Miller at a 2000 by-election. She held the seat for the next twenty years, winning re-election seven times.
Miller resigned from parliament in early 2020, and the subsequent by-election was won by Labor’s Lance McCallum. McCallum was re-elected at the 2020 general election.
- Kelvin Brown (One Nation)
- Edward Carroll (Independent)
- Tracey Nayler (Greens)
- Clive Brazier (Legalise Cannabis)
- Jeremy Williams (Family First)
- Lance McCallum (Labor)
- Angela Lowery (Animal Justice)
- Carl Mutzelburg (Liberal National)
Assessment
Bundamba is a very safe Labor seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Lance McCallum | Labor | 17,015 | 55.9 | +2.6 |
| Rob Shearman | Liberal National | 4,635 | 15.2 | +0.1 |
| Sharon Bell | One Nation | 4,553 | 15.0 | +15.0 |
| Danielle Mutton | Greens | 3,127 | 10.3 | -0.6 |
| Angela Lowery | Animal Justice | 1,099 | 3.6 | +3.6 |
| Informal | 1,344 | 4.2 |
2020 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Lance McCallum | Labor | 21,507 | 70.7 | |
| Sharon Bell | One Nation | 8,922 | 29.3 |
Booths in Bundamba have been divided into three areas: north-east, south-east and west.
Labor won a large majority of the two-candidate-preferred vote (against One Nation) in all three areas, ranging from 66.1% in the west to 73.2% in the south-east.
The LNP narrowly outpolled One Nation on primary votes, but One Nation overtook the LNP on preference flows. One Nation outpolled the LNP in all three areas and on the pre-poll vote, while the LNP significantly outpolled in the other votes category.
| Voter group | LNP prim % | ALP 2CP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| South-East | 12.4 | 73.2 | 4,238 | 13.9 |
| North-East | 12.9 | 71.3 | 3,424 | 11.3 |
| West | 15.9 | 66.1 | 2,051 | 6.7 |
| Pre-poll | 15.3 | 69.7 | 11,792 | 38.8 |
| Other votes | 17.3 | 71.6 | 8,924 | 29.3 |
Election results in Bundamba at the 2020 Queensland state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal National Party, One Nation and the Greens.
Interesting how One Nation got more AJP and Green voter preferences than the LNP did, and hence why ON got a lower primary vote than the LNP yet made the 2PP. Generally AJP and Greens recommend putting ON last or way behind the majors.
Lance will be fine here, can’t see him losing this seat and will be on Labor’s frontbench for the foreseeable future.
The seat will become safer for Labor after the next redistribution if it contracts to be more centred on Ipswich CBD.
Labor retain but don’t be surprised if Labor suffers a double digit swing here. The issues re crime and the Premier’s response were a big reason for the result in the Ipswich West by-election and this is literally ground zero for the incident that made people say they’ve had enough.
Alp retain