Bulimba – Queensland 2024

The Greens candidate for Morningside ward is running again (according to Max Chandler Mother’s Instagram). Not clear whether it’s a “target seat” for the Greens or just collateral from overlapping with Griffith

@ John
From a demographic perspective i think this should be an LNP versus Green seat so both of those parties should campaign here.

From the demographic it should be much stronger for the Liberals. But I think Di Farmer has a good personal vote. This area seems to be strong for Labor at a council area too.

@A A as someone who volunteered for Bulimba Meals on Wheels and has personally met her, that is definitely true.

I expect Di Farmer to hold. She’s been around for a while.

Same. Especially given that Lucy Collier held Morningside. Di Farmer’s personal vote means an ALP retain, albeit with a decreased margin.

Same. Especially given that Lucy Collier held Morningside in the council elections.

I think Di Farmer’s personal vote means an ALP retain, albeit with a decreased margin.

This isn’t a seat the Liberals will win unless there’s a repeat of the 2012 landslide. I expect a rather large swing to the Greens but it’s not a seat that’s really in reach for them this election. It is one that I expect will be a more serious Greens target in future elections though.

I’m surprised Di’s not retiring this election. This would’ve been the time for her to retire, but maybe she wants to fight and defend Bulimba.

She’s been a very good MP and Minister. I don’t think the Greens will win this time. Should be a Labor retain and I expect the LNP to finish second.

If there had been full preferential voting in 2012 Labor would have held on here fairly comfortably. From what I can see, Labor would have held on to about another 7 or 8 seats in 2012 without OPV. Possibly some that Labor held may have gone the other way. Comparing 2024 to 2012 is not quite ‘apples for apples’.

@PRP some think this could be an LNP/Greens seat in the future (like Maiwar already is and like Cooper will almost certainly be).

Quite possible! The demographics of the seat point to that being a possibility. Cooper will fall to the Greens this time, I think.

Morningside local, I agree with the consensus – the Morningside council result showed that Labor is still strong here and the Greens struggle to compete. I also find Barry to be a bit of a placeholder candidate for them though. If the Greens went all out here I think they’d be competitive.

One difference from the council though is that Labor were in opposition then and in Government now, so I think it will be closer.

@Joeldipops it seems both the Greens and LNP are content with letting Di Farmer hold Bulimba without much pushback this year, despite it being held on a margin that should theoretically be competitive based on the most recent polls. As I mentioned in another thread the LNP still doesn’t even have a candidate here and I don’t think the Greens can get the huge swing necessary to win.

Bulimba seems to be like Maroubra in Sydney and Williamstown in Melbourne – affluent seats with a strong and loyal Labor base and above average Greens support. I’m not entirely surprised with the LNP and Greens not bothering here.

Any thoughts?

@Ian maybe but Maroubra wasn’t actually classed as a safe seat until 2023.

@ Ian
i feel Builmba is more like Albert Park than Williamstown or Maroubra. Both the latter seats still have working class areas like Altona North. Maroubra also includes parts of port and industrial areas. Finally Maroubra is quite CALD and has Jewish and Greek communities unlike Bulimba.

@NP
Maroubra was always safe and survived the 2011 landslide though. Its 2PP is generally from 7% to 19%.
@Nimalan
Thanks, that makes sense.

Also, Maroubra has an average of 13.4% 2PP since 1984.

@Nimalan, as for Kingsford Smith electorate , even communities along the coast with beautiful beaches voted Labor strongly on TPP so it the community much more working class and yuppies unlike Wentworth which are old money?

@ Marh
I would say in Sydney the Harbourside tends to be more affluent than the beachside (even in Wentworth) for example Rose Bay, Double Bay more desirable than Bondi and Mosman, Clontarf, Seaforth, Fairlight more affluent than Manly. Bondi while in Wentworth is quite weak for the Libs and Labor often wins the 2CP there unlike Dover Heights just to the north which has no beach but just clifftop views but is strongly Liberal. Maroubra seems to embrance it working class heritage for example the Bra Boys are still around. I would say Williamstown also embraces it working class past and hence remains loyal to Labor also both areas dont really attract hipsters and have more nuclear families, CALD communities. so the Green vote is smaller.

Nimalan, Bulimba does have blue collar communities, in Murrarie and Colmslie (which is essentially the northern part of Morningside).

As an aside, I don’t care for the term “working class” in an economy where many tradies own big property portfolios while many with university degrees can’t afford to buy even one property. I prefer the terms blue collar and white collar.

Murarrie along with its neighbours Hemmant and Lytton appear to be predominantly industrial type suburbs, similar in nature to Botany and its surrounding suburbs for Sydney which are close to the port facilities,

It should also be noted the suburb of Bulimba itself also has a blue collar history, it just gentrified from the early 1990s onwards. It used to have large sites for Telstra and Rheem, among others. I’ve often thought of it as similar to other gentrified riverside suburbs like Balmain, but perhaps a decade or two behind due to the gentrification starting later.

@ Wilson
Thanks for pointing out Murrarie i dont know Brisbane as well so thanks for the correction. I accept that the terms middle class and white collar are not synonymous. I have accepted that tradies are often affluent or at least middle class. I have never myself described suburbs like Brunswick, Green voters and people who have university degrees as elite. For example, i describe the suburb of Langwarrin in Dunkely as middle class not working class as have others if you read the Dunkley by-election thread. It has above average incomes, decent property prices, a very tradie suburb but not one that experiences disadvantage, crime etc. When i refer to working class i mean areas with disadvantage, Low SES and the people who will experience discrimination in their lives for example suburbs such as Dandenong, Elizabeth (SA) Woodridge, Mount Druitt not places like Hughes (Sutherland Shire) where people may have not gone to university but live comfortable lives. One Nation voters has many people have pointed out are wealthier than average and are not the ones on Stuggle Street.

@Wilson suburbs can change over time. Balmain is now quite an affluent suburb but at the time of Federation it was a working-class suburb with a lot of dock workers. Similarly, Five Dock and Pyrmont were also docks but now have noticeable Liberal votes (Five Dock has been won by the Liberals on many occasions while Pyrmont is a small-l-liberal booth that is usually a marginal Labor booth).

Pyrmont was a Liberal booth in 2016 but a Labor booth in 2019 and 2022.

Agree with the takes that Bulimba is similar to Maroubra. I’d put it between somewhere Maroubra and Coogee, with Lytton the Heffron. Both Bulimba and Lytton will be Labor holds.

Lytton, Nudgee and Sandgate are more like Maroubra than Bulimba is. Bulimba isn’t beachside, it’s riverside. Lytton, Nudgee and Sandgate are all beachside just like La Perouse and Maroubra.

Poll Bludger’s profile shows only 4 candidates on the ballot with the inclusion of LNP Candidate Laura Wong who contested the Gabba ward early this year.
https://www.pollbludger.net/qld2024/LA.htm?s=Bulimba

@Caleb I think it’ll go (first preference order):
1. LNP (↑)
2. Labor (↓)
3. Greens (↑)
4. One Nation (?)

TPP:
1. Labor (↓)
2. LNP (↑)

Labor HOLD.

I think Labor will hold on with Greens preferences but it’ll be marginal. Di Farmer is a popular local MP but being the Minister for Education and Youth Justice makes it hard for her given that youth crime is one of the main reasons Labor is losing. However, this is a more affluent area so this may not affect her as much, but if the LNP preselected earlier and actually campaigned more here I would’ve said LNP gain.

Labor hold. Di Farmer has a solid personal vote. She could lose the primary vote but hold following Green preferences.

Yeah – farmer will win with a reduced margin. Probably 5 candidates-ALP – LNP – GNE – ON – IND

Di Farmer will win

She is immensely popular, works hard for her local community and is always available. I think there will be a protest vote against Labor and not her but think ahe still comfortably wins.

Linda Barry wasn’t even close during recent council elections and I suspect given local anger towards MCM she will fare worse against Di.

LNP candidate doesn’t even live this side of the river and was another failed council candidate for the Gabba. I don’t expect local voters will take kindly to the disrespect.

On federal results the Greens would’ve won this seat in 2022 with 58.5% of the TCP against the LNP. However, it should be noted that in most of the electorate the candidate order is LNP first, Labor second and Greens third, so because Labor are still outpolling the Greens I would assume this would be a Labor seat on federal figures.

On BCC results the Labor TCP here would also be 58.0% vs LNP. However I think the LNP might have a slight lead over Labor on first preferences.

*58.5% ALP vs LNP