Bancroft – Queensland 2024

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  1. Possible upset LNP gain if they are going for a 50-55 seat majority. This seat is not just Deception Bay, it also contains my suburb of North Lakes (although I am moving to Melbourne this Tuesday)

    North Lakes is a mortgage belt area, allot of young families, an area that Labor was bloodletting recently in federal elections due to their unpopular stances on Negative gearing. Allot of property development around here, a demographic that has recently shifted more to the LNP

    This is also the area that witnessed the tragic murder of Emma Lovell just a couple of kilometres from where I still live. Locals around here are demanding more action and the LNP could capitalise on this during the campaign. Labor would absolutely be foolish and selfish to ignore this seat because this would be around 50-50 on federal figures, and on 2019 federal figures, an LNP strong win.

    This was around 6-7% margin in 2017 state election, and barely swung at that election. I suspect there will be a huge correction and this seat will just fit the marginal category, but you cannot rule out an LNP gain if they play the issues right, and Labor continues to neglect this community.

  2. While this may be home turf for Miles (Murrumba used to contain NL and DB) The youth crime issue will definitely flip this seat. LNP will likely gain this. If the youth crime issue was the main factor for Ipswich West. that swing would be enough to flip this seat as well.

    And if you factor in the murder of Emma Lovell which will still be on the mind of voters in North Lakes, this seat is a prime target for the youth crime issue. If the LNP make this a youth crime election then they can win a whole bunch of seats like this, however if things don’t improve in the 4 years they are in power then these seats will return back to Labor.

    This is in the federal seat of Petrie and this seat would be about 50-50 if you replicated 2022 federal to this.

  3. I had Labor retaining Bancroft but I do think the Greater Moreton Bay region is ripe for change this time. Bancroft and Murrumba are yet to have LNP candidates endorsed, which seems odd. I suspect Labor will retain Kurwongbah and Morayfield. But Redcliffe, Murrumba, Bancroft and Pine Rivers are all in play.

  4. @PRP we did discuss the very real possibility of Steven Miles losing his own seat of Murrumba. My predictions have it in doubt still because the margin is only 11% (safe but the LNP are projected to win in a landslide) but of course it is indeed the Premier’s seat.

  5. If things look grim for Labor in the last few weeks, they might see the need to sandbag Murrumba – that will take resources away from somewhere else leading to further losses somewhere else.

  6. My own electorate with a sitting ALP MLA. Chris Whiting has been MLA o\r Moreton Bay Regional Council (now City Council) Councillor since I moved to area from Redcliffe 20 years ago. HE has a strong local presence. He is well liked but whether he keeps the seat will depend upon the swing against the government. I expect the swing here to be less than the general swing.
    Crime is an issue but Libs whilst being strong on crime when in opposition were just as bad as ALP when in government.
    In 50 years, I have only voted for 1 ALP candidate and that was Chris Whiting last election. If he can get the vote of an old Grouper like me he shouldf not be written off.

  7. AJ, Welcome back, it has been ages since we have seen you on here.

    I agree this will be competitive, and one of the big unknowns is whether Miles can actually limit the swing in this part of SEQLD considering this is a neighbouring seat to his own.

    But one of the most high profile youth crime incidents occurred in this seat and the LNP will hit hard here, especially in my former residence of North Lakes. If the swing is large enough in North Lakes alone, Deception Bay won’t be enough to save Labor.

    Labor needs to remain competitive in North Lakes to have a shot of holding on. If early in the night the LNP are in the mid-late fifties on the TPP in North Lakes, then it’s over for them. I know this area well, Labor is not particularly liked federally here and on the state level they are starting to get their baseball bats out, but whether everyone is going first preference LNP is another question.


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