ALP 8.7%
Incumbent MP
Hugh McDermott, since 2015.
Geography
Western Sydney. Prospect covers parts of Blacktown, Fairfield and Cumberland local council areas, including the suburbs of Girraween, Greystanes, Pemulwuy, Prairiewood and parts of Blacktown, Seven Hills, Smithfield, Toongabbie, Wentworthville and Wetherill Park.
History
Prospect was created as a new seat in 2015, but effectively replaced Smithfield, which had existed as an electoral district since 1988. It has been won by Labor at all but one election since 1988.
Smithfield was first won by Janice Crosio. She had won the seat of Fairfield in 1981 and 1984, moving to Smithfield in 1988. She had served as a minister in the Labor state government from 1984 to 1988. She resigned from Smithfield to run for the federal seat of Prospect. She held Prospect from 1990 to 2004. She served as a parliamentary secretary in the Labor federal government from 1993 to 1996.
The 1990 Smithfield by-election was won by Carl Scully. He joined the ministry when the ALP won power in 1995. He planned to run for leader of the ALP upon Bob Carr’s retirement in 2005, but withdrew when it was clear that Morris Iemma would win the contest. Scully was forced to resign as a minister in late 2006, and he retired from Smithfield in 2007.
Scully was succeeded in 2007 by Fairfield councillor Ninos Khoshaba. In 2011, he lost to Liberal candidate Andrew Rohan with a 20% swing.
Labor’s Hugh McDermott won the renamed seat of Prospect in 2015, and he was re-elected in 2019 and 2023.
Assessment
This section will be filled in closer to the election.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Hugh McDermott | Labor | 24,519 | 49.3 | -1.0 |
| Kalvin Biag | Liberal | 17,903 | 36.0 | -0.3 |
| Sujan Selventhiran | Greens | 3,610 | 7.3 | +2.5 |
| Peter Shafer | Sustainable Australia | 1,892 | 3.8 | +3.8 |
| Emily Walsh | Animal Justice | 1,775 | 3.6 | +1.1 |
| Informal | 2,375 | 4.6 |
2023 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Hugh McDermott | Labor | 27,175 | 58.7 | +0.1 |
| Kalvin Biag | Liberal | 19,137 | 41.3 | -0.1 |
Booths in Prospect have been split into three parts: east, north and south.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 55.1% in the south to 63.5% in the north.
| Voter group | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| East | 58.0 | 11,535 | 23.2 |
| North | 63.5 | 9,980 | 20.1 |
| South | 55.1 | 4,357 | 8.8 |
| Pre-poll | 57.3 | 13,611 | 27.4 |
| Other votes | 58.1 | 10,216 | 20.6 |
Election results in Prospect at the 2023 NSW state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor and the Liberal Party.
Expect this to be in play with the retirement of High McDermontt. Kalvin Biag has been campaigning hard here since 2023.
He is of mixed Filipino and Maltese background. They are among the two largest ethnic groups here.
Did McDermott have a personal vote? Hard to see Labor losing from a Primary of 49% last time.
I’m tipping Labor holds. Hopefully, Labor fields a well-credentialed candidate. One Nation will split the right-wing vote and this will help Labor.
Agree – hard to believe it will be anything other than a Labor retain. OPV is likely to strongly favour Labor this time with the split in the conservative vote. Although hard to apply the polls in any meaningful way – how do you work out what a 29% Labor statewide PV translates into seats.
I actually think McDermott may an underperfoming MP like Ann Stanley in Werriwa he did not get as much of a swing to Labor in 2023 when there was a significant swing statewide. Perhaps Labor could choose some one of a CALD background. In 2007 they chose an Assyrian candidate and the Libs did in 2011 as well.
I had the same impression as @Nimalan.
McDermott got himself into a number of controversies during his tenure – branch stacking, accusations that he misled parliament regarding his military service, inviting Mark Latham to a fundraiser, harassment allegations (but they were never substantiated), and appearing at a Tamil Tigers commemoration.
How will One Nation perform here? I remember some polls were showing One Nation could McMahon at a federal election.
One Nation looks like they would have potentially significant strength in most of this seat except for Girraween given it is very Devout Catholics while still being largely White (by Central Western Sydney standards).