Ipswich West by-election, 2024

Cause of by-election
Sitting Labor MP Jim Madden resigned from parliament in January 2024 to contest the Ipswich City Council election.

Margin – ALP 14.3%

Incumbent MP
Jim Madden, since 2015.

Geography
South-East Queensland. Ipswich West covers the western Ipswich suburbs of North Ipswich, Brassall, Leichhardt, Yamanto and Karalee, as well as rural areas to the west of Ipswich including Pine Mountain, Marburg and Rosewood.

History
Ipswich West has existed since 1960. In that time it has been won by the Labor Party at all but three elections.

The ALP held the seat from 1960 to 1974, when it was lost to the National Party at a landslide election. Labor recovered the seat in 1977.

David Underwood held the seat from 1977 until 1989, when he was replaced by Don Livingstone.

Livingstone held the seat from 1989 until 1998, when he lost to One Nation’s Jack Paff. Paff helped form the new City Country Alliance in 1999, and lost to Livingstone in 2001. Livingstone served two more terms, retiring in 2006.

The ALP’s Wayne Wendt was elected in Ipswich West in 2006 and he won a second term in 2009.

In 2012, Wendt was defeated by LNP candidate Sean Choat. Choat lost in 2015 to Labor candidate Jim Madden. Madden was re-elected in 2017 and 2020.

Madden had faced allegations of mistreatment of staff members and had announced plans to retire at the 2024 election, but instead resigned early to contest the Ipswich City Council election.

Candidates

  • Melody Lindsay (Legalise Cannabis)
  • Darren Zanow (Liberal National)
  • Mark Bone (One Nation)
  • Wendy Bourne (Labor)

Assessment
Ipswich West is a safe Labor seat, but this by-election could be most interesting for testing support for One Nation in one of their heartland areas.

2020 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Jim Madden Labor 15,033 50.1 +2.9
Chris Green Liberal National 6,328 21.1 +4.6
Gary Duffy One Nation 4,412 14.7 -13.4
Raven Wolf Greens 1,957 6.5 -1.5
Anthony Hopkins Legalise Cannabis 1,361 4.5 +4.5
Clem Grieger Civil Liberties & Motorists 565 1.9 +1.9
Karakan Karoly Kochardy Independent 321 1.1 +1.1
Informal 1,252 4.0

2020 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Jim Madden Labor 19,289 64.3
Chris Green Liberal National 10,688 35.7

Booth breakdown

Booths in Ipswich West have been divided into three areas: north-east, south-east and west.

Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 59.6% in the west to 68.6% in the south-east.

One Nation came third, with a primary vote ranging from 13.7% in the north-east to 18.8% in the west.

Voter group ON prim % ALP 2PP % Total votes % of votes
North-East 13.7 63.6 5,979 19.9
West 18.8 59.6 2,882 9.6
South-East 15.5 68.6 2,076 6.9
Pre-poll 15.1 65.5 10,380 34.6
Other votes 13.5 64.0 8,660 28.9

Election results in Ipswich West at the 2020 Queensland state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal National Party and One Nation.

Become a Patron!

13 COMMENTS

  1. Its been reported in the Australian staffer Wendy Bourne, Annastacia Palaszczuk’s “caucus liaison”, was positioned as a likely replacement for Jim Madden in Ipswich West.

  2. If anyone is wondering about One Nation’s prospects here. At their most recent high watermark of 2017, this seat ended as a Labor vs ONP contest on a 8.7% margin. This was ONP’s ~12th best performance on TCP. In 2017, Labor achieved just over 47% of first-preference votes, with ONP exceeding LNP first-preferences 28.2% vs 16.5%. This is also one of the eleven seats that ONP picked up in the 1998 State Election.

  3. This is safe Labor seat, which makes sense due to it being in a working-class Labor stronghold (i.e Ipswich).

    In 2020, Labor won the primary vote in every booth in Ipswich West. They won all but two booths on TPP; the two they didn’t win were Haigelsea and Pine Moutnain; Labor narrowly lost the TPP to the LNP in both of these booths due to One Nation having such a high primary vote in both of those booths.

  4. It wasn’t taken down, you are on that page. It was turned into a by-election guide. No point having both open at the same time. I will need the by-election results for the general election guide.

  5. As Ben mentions on the page this by-election will be particularly interesting to gauge support for One Nation in the current political atmosphere. Regardless of whether the TPP ends up against the ONP or LNP I expect a decent swing against Labor here… Maybe 6-7% at most.

  6. Agree Laine, I think the bulk of the swing will be in the rural parts of the district – places like Rosewood and Marburg.

  7. It is certainly an interesting By-Election, Darren Zanow is popular in rural communities and perhaps being President of the Ipswich Show Society this may also bring traditional ALP voters across to the LNP. Full disclosure I would never vote for the LNP and have already cast my vote however am doubtful that my vote will be successful.

LEAVE A REPLY

Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here