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At the moment looks like Labor will win 2, Green 1, the question I think is will One nation win 1 or 2 seats of the coalition
At the moment, One Nation is polling much higher than the Coalition. The most probable result is One Nation gets 2 and the Coalition (or should I say, Liberal), gets 1.
Currently it would also seem that Labor are not assured of the second seat anywhere. It would seem that #1 of ALP, ON and LNP would get elected but it will be a slog to get #4, #5 and #6 elected with Greens in probable box seat for #4. There is nothing to say that someone like Legalise Cannabis won’t come through especially after the Greebs have been elected. And we haven’t even discussed Allegra Spenders and Zali Steggalls new party with the totally forgettable name.
Given David Shoebridge made comments saying that The Greens would oppose military aid to Ukraine, I wonder how it could fare among more moderate Green Voter? This is given that Ukraine seems to be amongst the only issues that unites all factions of both Labor and The Coalition as well as the Teals.
@ Marh
I think it maybe unpopular in places like Ryan and the Tealish Greens but may do well in Green Left areas like Wills. It maybe popular among CALD communities who want an Anti-West Foreign policy.
@Nimalan
how are voters in Victoria and Qld going to effect David Shoebridge’s reelection in NSW, even if some moderate voters who put Greens voters 1 in senate change, Greens will likely pick up similar or more votes on the cost of living or anger with Labor who don’t even consider foreign wars when voting
@Greenlach
I agree wasnt to talking about David Shoebridge releection chances he will be re-elected. i was talking about different parts of the Greens base for example Tealish Greens in say Ryan probably dont have as much as Anti West focus at least those who voted for Turnbull in 2016 and switched to Greens since then. Greens will pick up Western Sydney votes regardless of foreign policy. I was saying in Wills for example i think it is very Anti-Aukus and Anti West foresign policy because it combines Green Left areas of Brunswick/Fiztroy North with large Muslim communities who see double standards in Western Foreign policy thats all.
I think there’s a risk for the Greens in the senate. The tilt to the right due to the surge in One Nation, coupled with a slide in Labor’s primary vote would make it harder for all Greens senators (whose term ends in 2028) to get re-elected.
@Nimalan, I also think that his military aid stance and his objective to “replace Labor” would put off moderate Greens in seats like Melbourne or Ryan or Brisbane. Ironically, it might encourage them to switch to Labor.
This is all only anecdotal, but: Opposing military aid to Ukraine and proposing state-operated supermarkets crosses two red lines for me that The Greens have never crossed in the past. I will certainly be putting The Greens below Labor at the next election. A friend of mine who was formerly a member of The Greens has said the same.