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Here is an unknown
But this seat is situated in a area of declining liberal influence . The north shore of Sydney.
The resignation of the sitting lib Mp and the boundary changes. Maybe shift the vote a couple of % to the teal.
I don’t know if the resignation of the sitting MP necessarily does drag the Liberal vote here, if anything the preselection of a moderate aligned and younger female candidate might help buffer them against the teal vote.
It’s a combo of both
@Sabena,
Sorry I missed your comment on 29 Jan.
I am not sure what that list of data is (I note you gave a reference) but its looks to be movement in the Liberal primary vote, which is a bit moot in a preferential system – most of the data is ancient history. In making my comment I was relying on nothing more than the graph our esteemed blog host provides on each electorate preview. The last 4 results for Bradfield are:
2013: NSW LIB 2PP 54.4 Bradfield LIP 2PP 70.7
2016: NSW LIB 2PP 50.5 Bradfield LIP 2PP 71.0 (change -3.9 vs +0.3)
2019: NSW LIB 2PP 51.8 Bradfield LIP 2PP 66.6 (change +1.3 vs -4.4
2022: NSW LIB 2PP 48.6 Bradfield LIP 2PP 56.2 (change -3.2% vs -10.8%)
So yes, in 2022, they moved in the same direction, but with a 7% differential. In the previous two they moved in the opposite direction, with an average differential of approx 5%.
These area dances to its own beat nowadays
2016 & 2019 mirror a lot of affluent urban seats.
2016 (Turnbull) the Liberals copped a swing against overall, but generally had a positive swing in affluent inner-urban areas. The Liberals even had their best ever 2PP in Melbourne Ports / Macnamara in 2016.
2019 (Morrison) the Liberals had a small positive swing overall, but copped a pretty heavy swing against them in affluent inner-urban areas.
2022 is in line with that broader trend too. The Liberals did cop a beating across the country overall that year, but it was far more pronounced in affluent inner-urban seats than it was in outer suburban & regional areas.
How time changes… less than 10 years ago the endorsed liberal would have won any seat on the north shore except Ryde based. Ones.
Now this part of Sydney is a problem both in terms of elections and the reduction in funding available. This leads to serious competition in such area’s which tend to march to the beat of a different drum.
mick the same can be said for inner city seats for labor who are now not just under threat from the greens but from independents as well
@High Street-you are right to say that the seat is less safe than it used to be.
At this election the generic polls are indicating a swing to the Liberals and it seems unlikely that there will be a swing to Boelle in those circumstances,particularly given the 15% swing against Fletcher on primaries last time.If you do a search of Psephos you will find his site which cover all Australian elections and some overseas ones as well.
Boundary changes +1.8% teal
Less fletcher’s personal vote -1% liberal in
That gives roughly 1.5% liberal margin without any swing 2022 to 2025.
????
Are there really teal-curious Liberal voters who would switch based on Fletcher being swapped out for a moderate-aligned female candidate? If anything I’d have it the other way
@ maxim
I don’t know but he claimed to be a moderate.
Any thoughts on the campaign so far?
Boele mentioned on her socials that over 600 attended her campaign launch last Sunday. I think the sitting teal MPs had similar numbers of volunteers in 2022 but they were in different electorates at a different time.
@mick ive met him before and he seems to a nice guy and im dissapointed to see him go.
@Maxim – would agree. If the libs kept the same do nothing candidate then that would be a good opportunity to try something different. At least with a new lib candidate, liberal voters can tell themselves that this one might be different
@Maxim
I tend to agree with your skepticism about further bleeding from LIB to Teal – I think there is a strong chance the Teal vote has topped out and just because Boele has been active and has a lot more $$ to spend this time does not mean many extra votes. Tink spent 1.8M in North Sydney and barely got 25% primary, so it not like $$ are a guaranteed path to a high primary vote
What I would be interested to hear views on though (there is probably data) is what % of voters are deciding on local candidates and who looking at the Leader and policy? We’ve just had a long discussion above about relativity of state and seat swings over time and the factors at play – these aren’t primary driven by local candidate factors. With Dutton as Leader, I can’t see Kaperterian increasing the Liberal vote much on ’22 when the entire electorate has lost the Liberal MP incumbency factor (two MP’s relevant)
The advantage of a new candidate – i.e. Gisele Kapterian – is that they are invariably younger, hungrier and keen to make a mark. Fletcher would have been complacent last time – she will not be. She just has to hold the line to win.
I think we are seeing a new era where MPs in safe seats can’t be complacent. They will all have to work that much harder. MPs in marginal seats have always known this. It might see more churn too as they might just exhaust themselves.
@Redistrubuted – perhaps we need better quality Senators as more Ministers may come from the Upper chamber, with member of the House generally to focused on holding their seat. Any Party that has someone at the top of their Senate ticket that doesn’t have the stature and ability to be a Senior Minister really should be having a good look at themselves.
@High Street – usually the top skill of the top senate ticket is to convince members of the dominant faction to put them there. Not necessarily ministerial qualities. There seem plenty of plodders and outright terrible senators from the majors
High Street
I think the Libs may have already learned this – the opposition front bench seems to be senate heavy – Nats excepted. Labor does have a problem though, they have some high quality senators such as Penny Wong and Murray Watt but there are some timeservers / time wasters such as Helen Polley who (I don’t know this) do decent constituency work but have nothing to contribute to the national debate. They have too many timeservers and party / union hacks.
PS: I often listen to the senate when cooking dinner and the level of contribution from some Labor senators is at Year 9 or 10 level and obviously written by a staffer who is not much beyond Year 9 or 10.
PPS: You also get the absolutely bizarre from Malcolm Roberts, Gerrard Rennick or Ralph Babet but that is just at a different level altogether.
Redistributed, your last comment about the hard right senators like Malcolm Roberts and Gerard Rennick reminds me of the behaviour from some hardcore Republican Senators in the US such as Tommy Tuberville (Alabama) who frequently pulled stunts in Congress and made controversial remarks to the media. He and others of that background were generally ridiculed by others in the party who were more mainstream.
@YohAn
The converse,however,does not seem to be the case with the Democrats.