LIB 0.1%
Incumbent MP
Jerome Laxale (Labor), since 2022.
Geography
Bennelong covers western parts of the north shore of Sydney. The seat covers the entirety of the Ryde, Lane Cove and Hunter’s Hill council areas, along with small parts of the Willoughby and Parramatta council areas. Main suburbs in the seat are Ryde, Eastwood, Gladesville, Hunters Hill and Lane Cove.
Redistribution
Bennelong shifted east, gaining the Lane Cove and Hunter’s Hill council areas from the abolished seat of North Sydney, along with a small part of the Willoughby council area. To compensate, Bennelong lost most of the suburbs within the City of Parramatta, namely Ermington and Epping. These changes flipped the seat’s margin from 1.0% for Labor to 0.1% for Liberal. With the uncertainty in estimating vote for each part of an electorate, it is not possible to be certain as to whether this is a notional Labor or Liberal seat, but my estimate came out as Liberal 0.1%.
History
Bennelong was created in 1949, and was held by only two MPs between then and the 2007 federal election. Bennelong originally covered Ryde, Hunters Hill and Lane Cove, but not areas such as Eastwood and Epping that were later added to the seat.
Bennelong was first won by John Cramer (LIB) in 1949. Cramer served as Minister for the Army under Robert Menzies from 1956 to 1963. During his time holding Bennelong the seat was never a very safe seat, and in 1961 Cramer only held on by 1832 votes. His largest margin was 15.4% in 1966.
Cramer retired at the 1974 election and was succeeded by John Howard (LIB). Howard went on to serve as a minister under Malcolm Fraser, including as Treasurer from 1977 to 1983. He then served in a variety of roles on the opposition frontbench after 1983, including as two stints as Opposition Leader (1985-1989, 1995-1996). He was elected as Prime Minister in 1996 and served until 2007.
The seat of Bennelong had gradually shifted to the north-west over the decades, taking in Epping. The 1992 redistribution saw the last parts of Lane Cove removed from the seat, and Howard’s margin was cut in 1993. After recovering in 1996 to a margin over 10% it gradually declined to a 4.3% margin in 2004, when the Greens ran high-profile former intelligence officer Andrew Wilkie against Howard.
The 2006 redistribution saw Howard’s margin cut slightly and the ALP decided to target the seat, running former journalist Maxine McKew. McKew won the seat with 51.4% of the two-party vote.
In 2010, McKew was defeated by former tennis champion John Alexander. Alexander was re-elected in 2013 and 2016.
John Alexander was found to be a British dual citizen in 2017, and resigned from his seat to recontest without any citizenship concerns. He was re-elected at that by-election, despite a swing to Labor. Alexander was re-elected in 2019 and retired in 2022.
Bennelong was narrowly won in 2022 by Labor candidate Jerome Laxale, a former mayor of Ryde.
Assessment
Bennelong is an extremely marginal seat. The seat could easily go to either Labor or Liberal. It would be easy to assume that any swing to the Liberal Party nationally would see this seat flip, but the loss of Liberal Party incumbency in this electorate could see this seat buck the trend. Laxale now has a personal vote (admittedly just for the two thirds of the seat contained in Bennelong back in 2022), and the entire seat (both the areas previously contained in Bennelong and North Sydney) no longer has a personal vote for a sitting Liberal MP that was defending each seat in 2022. The third of the electorate added from North Sydney has also had an independent MP representing the area for three years which may benefit Laxale in a close race.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Simon Kennedy | Liberal | 41,206 | 41.4 | -9.5 | 41.2 |
| Jerome Laxale | Labor | 37,596 | 37.7 | +3.7 | 31.8 |
| Tony Adams | Greens | 11,395 | 11.4 | +2.0 | 10.3 |
| Independent | 8.2 | ||||
| Rhys Ian Collyer | United Australia | 2,915 | 2.9 | +1.0 | 2.6 |
| Victor Waterson | One Nation | 1,664 | 1.7 | +1.7 | 1.5 |
| Dougal Cameron | Liberal Democrats | 1,539 | 1.5 | +1.5 | 1.4 |
| John August | Fusion | 2,125 | 2.1 | +2.1 | 1.4 |
| Others | 0.9 | ||||
| Kyinzom Dhongdue | Democratic Alliance | 1,208 | 1.2 | +1.2 | 0.8 |
| Informal | 6,130 | 5.8 | +0.6 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Simon Kennedy | Liberal | 48,847 | 49.0 | -7.9 | 50.1 |
| Jerome Laxale | Labor | 50,801 | 51.0 | +7.9 | 49.9 |
Polling places in Bennelong have been split into three parts. Polling places in Hunters Hill, Lane Cove and Willoughby council areas have been grouped as “east”, while the rest of the electorate was split into north-west and south-west.
The Liberal Party won 51.5% of the two-party-preferred vote in the east, while Labor won 50.9% in the south-west and 52.1% in the north-west.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 8.2% in the east to 12.1% in the north-west. Independent candidate Kylea Tink polled 23.6% of the vote in the east of the electorate, which lines up with the former North Sydney boundaries.
| Voter group | GRN prim | IND prim | LIB 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| East | 8.2 | 23.6 | 51.5 | 20,333 | 19.2 |
| North-West | 12.1 | 0.0 | 47.9 | 19,451 | 18.4 |
| South-West | 11.9 | 1.0 | 49.1 | 16,703 | 15.8 |
| Pre-poll | 9.6 | 7.6 | 49.6 | 29,893 | 28.3 |
| Other votes | 10.7 | 7.6 | 52.2 | 19,269 | 18.2 |
Election results in Bennelong at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor and the Greens.
They haven’t lost is John – there is nothing technical about that. You are just referring to how the election analysts look at the numbers.
If Labor doesn’t win they seat, they will have failed to “retain it”
This might be quite tricky for Labor. It could be tighter than i first thought. There are some wildcard factors I mentioned before about Laxale’s personal vote factor and the newly absorbed North Sydney parts.
I’ve seen physical ads for Scott Yung including the big billboard over the main road just outside Top Ryde.
I see Laxale’s campaign has gathered steam. Penny Wong has had a fair few public engagements in Bennelong (and Reid) so far this year.
redistributed,
The ICAC referral related to several Ryde Councillors, but did not include Jerome Laxale.
The full ICAC report:
https://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/tp/files/6403/investigation-into-the-conduct-of-certain-city-of-ryde-councillors-and-others-operation-cavill-30-06-2014.pdf
SMH gives a summary of the case and outcome of the trials.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/former-ryde-mayor-ivan-petch-gets-18-month-sentence-20191218-p53l9m.html
WW – not the same case – the Jerome Laxale case started in 2019 and then kept going for a while.
More stuff out on Scott Yung which is negative, might be ideal for the Liberals to ditch the candidate and replace with some less accident prone.
Nominations have closed so it’s too late for stuff like that. That being said, Scott Yung isn’t the worst candidate out there. The previous one in 2022 was a lot worse.
SpaceFish, it’s too late. Ballots have been drawn. It shows that all parties, especially the Liberals in a marginal seat, should have a proper vetting process and should make aware of guidelines.
Some one, somewhere has it in for Scott Yung big time and won’t stop until he is brought down.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/frantic-calls-party-concern-as-lib-candidate-under-spotlight-20250409-p5lqkx.html
The Liberals candidate selection may cost them dearly. The Liberal candidate in Bruce seems to be in the news for all the wrong reason as well.
Maybe Liberals should call John Alexander out of retirement and contest in 2028 😀
Though not sure if John would resonate with the rightward shift of the Liberals since 2022
Re: Scott Yung, I’ve seen this movie before in Chisholm 2019, and it didn’t stop Gladys Liu from winning the seat.
Indeed “controversy” about a candidate being too pro China may swing a few 2022 ALP votes in their favour
@ redistributed
Enemies on his own side
@Blue Not John
Since new Bennelong is far less Chinese (still high) than the old Bennelong thanks to replacing Epping with Hunters Hill and Lane Cove, it makes me wonder if the redistribution was a blessing in disguise for Labor/Laxale.
I can’t comprehensively determine Lane Cove’s attitude towards China but demographic change and a potential general corruption issue could swing it Labor I guess?
Question: Is Hunters Hill a genuine anti-China area? I am unfamiliar with that area.
The chances of John Alexander coming out of retirement are the about equal to John Howard doing the same…
Zero
Leon, I think the border suburbs (Gladesville, Hunters Hill and Lane Cove) whilst being considered more ethnically white and less diverse also feature many private schools where children come from the neighbouring Chinese/Asian background suburbs (Ryde and Chatswood). As a result, I don’t think there will be significant anti-China sentiment in these areas.
I agree with Yoh An about those suburbs i dont see there will be much anti-China sentiment there. Anti-China sentiment will be stronger in seats like Herbert and Soloman due to significant milltary vote. Areas with large Muslim communities will be Pro-China as there is Anti-American sentiment there. It maybe the case in Wentworth there is anti-China sentiment among the Jewish community as they are Pro-American for example Michael Danby is a China Hawk.
@Redistributed There was a push to dump Scott Yung after the redistribution by the Hunter Hill LGA Mayor on the grounds of safer boundaries for the Libs so all those stories are likely some factional drama.
What faction didn’t like him loitering outside a primary school handing out lollies?
No matter what else appears if anything
Noms are closed so the libs are stuck with him
If one accepts the conventional wisdom that Labor are likely to underperform in outer suburban seats, the flipside to that is that they’re likely to overperform in seats like this (and Sturt), even without adding any impact of whatever baggage candidates have.
Anyone else find it a bit fishy that the person/organisation running this smear campaign against Scott Yung constantly mentions the “candidate selection process”?
To me, it looks like someone is throwing a jealous tantrum/fit over not being preselected over Yung. It’s a bad look when it’s obvious that the smear campaign is coming from inside the house.
I think the Lib executives should step in and threaten the preselection candidates with expulsion from the party IMO, it’s damaging their chances in an already tight race.
From AFR, 15 June 2024:
“Mr Yung, the owner of a tutoring business, was chosen as the Liberal candidate last year after the other contenders dropped out.”
“A party source said Hunters Hill mayor Zac Miles has begun lobbying factional leaders to support them in Bennelong.”
Given the other contenders had dropped out, if I had to guess, my money is here.
@Wombater,
So why did everyone drop out of the race then? I’m a bit confused. But basically someone is jealous that he was preselected and are now ruing it for him. Labor must be happy for this situation to occur regardless of the reason.
@SpaceFish
Basically, everyone dropped out of the race (reasons unknown, perhaps they knew Scott Yung had the support from Liberal members and they didn’t?), and Scott Yung was then chosen – only to then have the Hunter Hills mayor try to lobby support from other members to topple him after he was chosen.
As far as I know, I haven’t heard of any other Liberal member pushing to get Scott out – that AFR article seems to be the only evidence of anyone that wants to get Scott out for their own gain.
I’m quoting from Pollbludger – Yung was preselected unopposed, despite reports Hunters Hill mayor Zac Miles had resigned from the Liberal state executive to run. It was reported that Miles lobbied the party with a view to having the process reopened after the announcement of new boundaries in June 2024 that appeared to strengthen the Liberals’ position.
Trumpet of Patriots nationally are putting incumbent parties last. Funnily enough, they have on their HTV card the Liberals last and Labor (Jerome Laxale) as second last.
Pro-China suburbs like Epping/Carlingford/Macq park hv been axed by the new boundary. .
which means there will be less votes for LAB. If Coalition cannot win it this time – they might as well fold along with Dufus.
Mainland Chinese vote LAB; Diaspora Chinese vote LIBs
I noted that one of the few conflutes I saw for Laxale had his face on a blue background with red text rather than the dominant Labor red
My view on Bennelong is slowly moving form a Liberal gain to a Labor retain. Even though Scott Yung has been actively campaigning and can appeal to Chinese communities, I think that his gaffes might hurt him.
Such gaffes include his close links to members affiliated with the CCP, his failure to declare that he paid for Chinese celebrities to endorse him in his Kogarah campaign in 2019, and the fact that he’s from Hurstville. Not to mention that I’m hearing from some people that his signs are beginning to get a bit annoying.
That combined with Labor seemingly doing better in inner-city/metro areas, Laxale’s high popularity and trend from previous to the most recent YouGov MRP showing Chinese Australians are moving back to Labor, might mean Laxale might barely hold Bennelong.
*from, not form
@bazza Milton Dick surprisingly does this, despite being in a very safe seat with no real challenge. His branding is mostly blue with a little bit of red text. Driving through his seat, his corflutes almost look like Liberal ones.
Jerome Laxale’s branding is quite different. His shirts are white and his corflutes have red and the party logo and a different shade of blue to the Liberal one. I know that Tanya Plibersek uses a purple theme.
@Lurking exactly right. I think Scott Yung is being a bit overexposed and it’s starting to turn people off. If he was under a more moderate Liberal leader, I think he would stand a fair chance – however, under someone like Dutton, the constant Liberal branding is an unwelcome reminder that they’re voting for Dutton too.
Changing my opinion from Liberal gain to Labor retain.
Labor retain with a slight swing. Yung seemed like a good candidate at the time but ye… umm…
Monique Ryan and Clare O’Neil have also had their CCP issues. If the truth be know it is probably an easy minefield to stumble into.
Reports that Scott Yung is telling potential voters to vote for him and not worry about Dutton as the leader because Pete will be gone soon
Jerome Laxale’s dad also in the news for abusing a Liberal party volunteer at a pre-poll
@bazza. Regarding Scott’s comments, that’s not exactly incorrect with how things are going with the campaign and if Well done Angus gets his way. Jerome’s dad story is also not a good look, particularly in the Ryde and Lane Cove areas.
I said a month ago that this would be a notional Liberal hold even though Laxelle has been a strong local member versus a drop in who has is nothing short of a disaster.
Even though Laxelle was paying over $3 on various sports betting agencies at the start of the campaign versus $1.60 now, I still believe Yung will this, only because this is supposedly Liberal heartland. Maxine (remember her?) won this in the Rudd landslide when the seat shifted west into the housing estates of Dundas and Ermington, but now the seat has gone wayback east into Hunters and Lane Cove, which is where it was when Howard first had the seat.
Labor only holds this if all the bad press, all of it warranted, from the left (ABC, guardian, SMH) to the right (Australian), in the past month shifts the undecided voters in the seat. The Liberal party will be looking for blood if they do not notionally retain this.
Would agree with you Eastwardian, Scott Yung will probably scrape through (winning by a margin around 1% or so, similar to Jerome Laxale’s current margin). His past controversies combined with a weaking of the Coalition/Liberal vote nationally will likely prevent him from achieving a more comfortable win that John Alexander achieved (3-4% margin in 2010).
@Eastwardian and @Yoh An
As someone who drives through the electorate and works in Chatswood, I actually think that there’s a bit of voter fatigue + Scott Yung’s controversies + Albanese Labor is more appealing to a lot of Asian voters in Bennelong vs. a Dutton Liberal government = very slight edge to Jerome Laxale. Seeing Scott Yung’s face every time on the drive home was exciting at first, then quickly became a turn off.
@Wombater, are you referrring to Scott Yung’s giant billboards facing both directions on the main road next to Top Ryde?
Your comment about voter fatigue is interesting. I believe the Liberals went all in very early in Bennelong. The PM delayed the election by 3 weeks due to the cyclone. It allowed more time to get a feel of Scott Yung and Peter Dutton.
@Votante correct. Do you think that if they had delayed Scott Yung’s campaign a bit, he would have had a better shot at winning Bennelong?
Yung has enemies within the liberal party.
I think Laxale still has a chance of winning.
National polls show nationwide Labor 2PP to be the same as or slightly higher than in 2022. This means there must be some seat that swings towards Labor, and Bennelong has a demography which the Coalition struggles to appeal to and which makes it more likely to swing towards Labor. Bennelong has one of the highest average income and highest levels of university education among all federal electorates. It is also one of the most diverse, with one of the largest proportion of residents of Chinese ancestry.
Peter Dutton has not helped the Coalition win back the support of high income and university-educated voters as well as voters of diverse (especially Chinese) backgrounds, and is in fact continuing to alienate them.
Dutton’s Coalition won’t appeal to the 8.2% of new Bennelong voters who voted for Kylea Tink in the former electorate of North Sydney. For this reason, in the absence of a teal independent, most of these teal voters won’t go back to the Liberal Party. Many of these voters, including some who preferenced the Liberal Party in 2022, will switch to minor parties and preference Labor or even switch directly to Labor.
Laxale has been among Labor’s most progressive MPs. He has pushed for LGBTIQ+ people to be counted in the 2026 Census and for Labor to honour its 2022 election commitment of reforming Australia’s environmental laws, which will also make him appeal to teal voters.
By contrast, Liberal candidate Scott Yung has faced scrutiny over undisclosed campaign spending during the 2019 NSW state election and links to a casino high roller linked to the Chinese Communist Party, as well as inappropriate conduct such as handing out Easter eggs to children outside of a school. These controversies can turn some swinging voters away. These controversies have even raised some internal concerns within the Liberal Party.
There are other factors that can help Laxale hold on, including his personal vote which should give him a sophomore boost, especially considering he was the Mayor of the local Ryde Council for a total of more than five years.
Why would anyone be writing Laxale off? If anything, he’d be the favourite in a tight race.
Plus since the Liberal Party seems not to even want Yung in the room with them…
A month ago quite a few people on this page wanted to write him off. Most seem to have retracted that stance now though.
I was wrong but am very happy that Laxelle was returned. The fact that Yung suffered the worst swing out of all NSW liberal candidates just shows what a disaster he was and I’m glad the electorate saw through him.
Scott Yung has shown that he has a talent to piss every voter group off. A candidate from an ethnic Chinese background who has seen huge swings in Asian areas – a candidate who in more Anglo areas that have come North Sydney has managed to convert every Teal vote to Labor or the Greens. With the latter I wonder if his hanging around with the CCP influence types might have been a factor? His political career is over.
@Redistributed the undeniable factor was that despite being ethnically Chinese, a vote for Scott Yung was also a vote for the hawkish and unelectable Dutton who the Chinese community cannot trust (source: SBS). Had he been under a Turnbull Liberal government, he would have not suffered such a large swing away from him.