Reid – Australia 2022

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  1. A potential labor gain, however I find western Sydney has been improving for the liberal party so it could remain with the liberal party. Labor should target eastern Melbourne as Victoria as a whole is leaning more labor then liberal recently.

  2. Reid is not really ‘Western Sydney’, politically, culturally or geographically. In reality, it is part of the gentrifying Inner West. Underlying demographics are typical of the wealthy voters who toyed with switching to Labor, hence the swing to them at the last election.

    I still remember everyone predicting a Labor gain here at the last election. Again, the margin is simply too large for Labor to overcome.

  3. Wreathy of Sydney
    Not everyone mate !. And i was a Sam Crosby fan, & backer. Ben even put me into moderation for defending him. One of my predictions was that he would achieve “a credible swing of 2% ” dead on. We will find out just how influential he was . I’ll predict an underlying swing back to Fiona Martin of around 3-5%. i say underlying because it’s unclear how much, & permanently Morrison has damaged the libs.

    The rest i agree with
    cheers wd

  4. There are seats like Reid which will be interesting to watch. We the current COVID outbreak who knows what will happen. People are not happy with the Commonwealth or State Governments regardless of polls. Possible Labor gain.

  5. Apologies WD, you’re quite right – almost everyone!

    As I recall, I think you were one of the only people to predict the overall Coalition win too.

  6. It’s amazing how people think the outbreak will cause political damage to Gladys/Morrison when we had a similar situation in Victoria last year which did nothing of the sort. As I recall, Andrews didn’t really suffer any long-term damage from the constant outbreaks and lockdowns. Of course, it depends on how long this one lasts.

    Even at the worst, I don’t rate Labor’s chances very highly here.

  7. James
    Sorry not even a toss up. A dark horse even if labor win. & that won’t happen.

    Wreathy of Sydney
    Sorry can’t take credit for coalition win prediction. I PREDICTED LABOR/INDEPENDENT GREEN minority govt IIRC 72-76 LABOR seats. However everyone else was saying 80-85. IIRC you did better
    cheers WD

  8. I can’t see the libs losing here although lockdown is having short term effects as stated above in Victoria the effects don’t last forever, still undecided whether it’ll be a small swing for or against the government but they should definitely hold their ground around concord and other areas near the water. As Albo himself said on election night on channel 9, high real estate near water is not you traditional labor voter.

  9. This part of Sydney – especially the Canada Bay suburbs – has evidently changed a lot over the decades. The former Division of Lowe covered roughly the same area and was usually held by Labor.

    It’s even more pronounced at the state level, with Drummoyne district having been held by Labor from 1962 to 2011, with a peak 2PP of Labor 73.8% in the 1981 “Wranslide”. Even in 2003 and 2007, it was “fairly safe” seat for Labor. Now it’s a Liberal seat safer than Epping, Lane Cove, or Manly!

  10. I was busy on election night, but if Albo said that, and ALP are indeed limiting their successes to “traditional labor voters”, then it may well be a long time before ALP wins again. I just looked at AEC and all the Drummoyne booths swung to ALP in 2019 and so did Abbotsford. Swings varied across the seat of course, but is doesn’t look to me like it was lost “on the waterfront” – you don’t have to win every booth – just the ones you lose, don’t lose by too much.

    Coming across the water – have a look at the Greenwich and Wollstonecraft 2019 results – have a look at McMahons point. Waterfront or water side suburbs doesn’t equal automatic Liberal big margins.

  11. Yes, It will be a long time. They will never win government again. The coalition will stay in power even longer than the record 23 years in power under Menzies.

    The voters of Reid don’t care about the failures of this government. They want to know how the alternative (Labor) will be better for them and their families. And so far Labor has failed to prove themselves that they would be a better government let alone better at managing the pandemic. Glady’s can get her fair share of the blame for NSW but Morrison is Prime Minister. Not Premier.

    Obviously the state area is much more Liberal leaning than the federal area but this seat and Banks will not flip at next years election. I don’t even think Plibersek could do it.

    This seat will be called when polls close. It won’t even be a contest. The Liberals will probably be able to govern in their own right if they wanted to at this stage (even though they won’t they could) The 53-47 poll to Labor is bullcrap, these are the same polls that had them well up before the last election. People just don’t want to tell the pollsters that they prefer the coalition over Labor, The more Labor leads in the polls the less they will learn because Albo is likely looking at the polls and saying that because he’s ahead Labor is on the right track. Well I can’t wait to see your concession speech in May 2022.

    Liberal retain 6-8% swing

  12. Good luck with that Daniel – you will be “right” in your belief that it is legitimate to disbelieve the polls right up until you are wrong. Maybe you will be proved right again in 2022 – but if you know anything about polling error, you will appreciate that the any error in this coming election is not correlated with the error in the last.

  13. I was so certain that Labor’s Sam Crosby would snatch this seat in 2019, he certainly has the intellectual prowess and had a head start in the campaign. He looks so formidable at the polling booths. But what went wrong? Oh also does anyone know the background of the candidates? Who is Sally Sitou? Is she of Chinese ancestry?

  14. A high-profile NSW Liberal woman Natalie Baini is quitting to run as an independent in this seat.

    Unlike some of the other independents that are running in safe Liberal seats. Baini isn’t a strong progressive on climate change. Baini dissatisfaction comes from more the Liberals handling of a complaint she made. And the fact they won’t have a preselection to let her challenge the incumbent in this seat.

    This can’t help the Liberals which will split the vote. But I suspect Baini will still prefernce the Liberals. But if this is happening here you have to presume Scott Morrison will be allowed his captain picks in other NSW marginals (Gilmore, Eden-Monaro etc).

  15. Pessimistic Daniel is off-putting, it has thrown me off completely this election cycle.

    Usually Daniel is very optimistic about Labor’s vote.

  16. Reid will become more and more safe Liberal as time goes on. Labor hasn’t helped matters by picking another dud candidate.
    The results of the Mayoral/Council election in Canada Bay will affirm this becoming a blue ribbon area- given the Council makes up the largest geographic area of the seat, along with the state seat of Drummoyne.
    Fiona Martin outcampaigned Sam Crosby, who had a year and a half head start, and still blew it. Interesting to seat now Sam has moved too Barton, hoping to inherit the much safer seat from Linda Burney.
    Also to note the local Labor branches are in disarray since Angelo Tsirekas was expelled from the party.
    PhD Candidate Sally Sitou was rushed through as a candidate, even though the more qualified and actual Dr Frank Alafaci would’ve been able to fundraise more and tap into the large Korean community.
    Labor panicked after the Tu Le situation in Fowler, and the perception that Labor uses ethnic communities to hand out and volunteer but never puts them forward as candidates, instead opting for Keneally.
    Both Labor’s candidates in Reid and Banks are of Asian decent but have little to no chance of winning the seat, thus proving Tu Le’s point.
    Interestingly, Sally Sitou herself moved into the area only 12 months ago- couldn’t actually vote for herself in preselection. And furthermore, wasn’t actually after Reid but wanted the state seat of Strathfield. Unbeknownst to her Jodi McKay pulled the pin early as a final farewell to her rival Chris Minns. This caused a by-election in the middle of a Local Government and Federal Government campaign.
    Sally had also nominated to be on Strathfield Council but had to withdraw after local members said it was greedy for her to be both a Federal candidate and Council candidate.
    No doubt she will be hoping for a protracted length of time for the writs to be written, so after the imminent failure of a Federal campaign, she can then run again for Strathfield.
    Incumbency is also a powerful thing

  17. Hawkeye_au can you stop attacking me for god sake? I didn’t do anything to you. I am entitled to my on opinions as much as you are. If you are going to mention me how about confronting me directly mate. I don’t appreciate it at all and I would appreciate if you could ask him to stop Ben.

    Usually I am optimistic about Labors vote. and I said that back in JULY mate. Allot has changed since then. back then I was predicting an increased majority for the coalition but ever since. I say this is going to be very close.

    Morrison looked as if he was winning the argument on COVID and Labor was lacking (they still are but the coalition look weak at this point compared to July. Not saying the polls are correct but it must be scary that Labor has the biggest lead nation wide 55-45 in 3 years. It must scare the coalition.

    It also doesn’t help there was a primary challenge/preselection challenge to the sitting MP within her own party. But the person pulled back and is now not running for pre-selection perhaps because she doesn’t believe she has the numbers (Morrison will do anything he can to protect Martin from a challenge) because he see’s her as more electable and incumbency can help in bruising elections.

    Kristina Keneally would be more suited here than Fowler but she probably doesn’t want to hold a marginal seat as she is PM material in my view. Tu Le could always give this seat a crack or run for senate or perhaps run for the state election in 2 years.

    Reid will be very close and anyone would be daring to call it with recent events but I do agree with the consensus that the Liberals will narrowly be favoured due to demographics but if the election was held right here right now Labor would win on current polling. But it will almost certainly tighten.

  18. I do not know what will happen here.. thought it was a certain alp win in 2019.. but obviously I was wrong .there was a dampened swing.Labor can win without this seat. At the moment Morrison is being portrayed as a liar. This makes it very hard to pick up ground in the election campaign..the boy who cried wolf.I this seat is won by Labor then Morrison can’t win

  19. @Daniel – I do and it is because your record of posting on here is, frankly, ridiculous. You make the most blatantly biased comments, with no relevance whatsoever in the evidence you provide and have a track record of being straight out wrong. I’m just the most vocal about it but everyone here knows it. So try taking a hint for a chance.

    @Mick – I think you are majorly under-estimating the demographic swing within Reid, especially with regards to the gentrification that has occured along the River side. The increasing in development along the River and through Rhodes is making this better for the Liberal Party. Dr Martin has also become a solid MP in the area and could well be positioning for her own Sophomore Surge.

    Labor needs to throw everything at this seat to win it back because, if not, I think it is gone for another couple of election cycles

  20. The electorate of Reid sits in an enviable position where you have a choice in what party will represent you. The electorate to your south doesn’t have that luxury and is a Labor Party stronghold.
    The comments seem to be directed towards party loyalty and not based on the individual who will best represent you and the area you call your home.
    That said, I don’t support Labor, nor the Liberals. I am a swing voter. A lot of people would count themselves lucky to have a choice of being pandered to living in a marginal seat or swinging seat.
    If you genuinely vote on party lines, Those who vote Liberal never endured nor would never tolerate helicopters flying overhead at 2.00 am during our lockdown and 1 hour of “freedom” a day and really should move to an amalgamated mega council area to know what LNP policy looks like. Those of you who vote labor need to move out of Reid and live in the western end of Campsie to see what a very safe labor electorate looks like Both Locally, state and Federally. Vote for the person who would support you – party loyalty means nothing

  21. @ Hawkeye-au nothing is ever relevant when it comes to politics, but outright biased whining and complaints don’t get better candidates or discussions

  22. Albanese held his first election rally in Reid, a good indication that Labor will put more heft into this seat than they did in 2019. I think Crosby did well to achieve a 1.5% swing, given that there was an overall swing against Labor, but of course it wasn’t enough.

    Fiona Martin didn’t move into the electorate as promised but I’m not sure what impact she’s had as a local member. Her recent interventions suggest she’s worried about the government’s record on climate change. So she may not have as much personal following as could be expected for an incumbent. That said, it will be very hard for Sitou to get a 3.2% swing so Martin may hang on with a new margin of around 1%.

  23. If Baini preferences the Liberals it would essentially defeat the purpose of her running as an independent against Fiona Martin. What I think she would do is preference the ALP in hopes of ousting Fiona Martin and then getting preselected as Liberal candidate for Reid at the following election but I don’t know if the Liberal party would let her back in after she quit.

  24. Afaik the Libs have a policy of expelling members/preventing preselection for people who run against endorsed candidates – see Peter King vs Malcolm Turnbull in 2004.

  25. Cassandra what overall ”swing” against Labor. there was no swing against Labor. It was just status quo to 2016. There was no swing whatsoever. If you are talking about this seat then Labor got a primary and TPP swing here albeit a very small one.

  26. @John Smith

    Your comments are very naïve if you think the Liberals would let her back in the party. If that’s Natalie Baini strategy (which I seriously doubt) then it’s a pretty dumb strategy. The Labor party is the same anyone in the party who runs as independent candidate against a Labor candidate faces instant expulsion from the party.

  27. Natalie Baini, prior to quitting the party, was being suggested for the state seat of Strathfield after internal polling put her forward, along with other potential Liberal candidates, she polled near last.
    Factionally, she is in the hard right, who have been stroppy since both the Member for Drummoyne and Member for Reid are both Moderates. Even though they have the numbers in the area, the Moderates across Greater Sydney lead by Matt Kean/Trent Zimmerman have been working more strategically with Alex Hawke’s Centre Right to squeeze the Hard Right faction out of winnable seats.
    Noting of course, Reid is fairly middle of the road when it comes to social issues. Whilst you too have a progressive middle class element, along the water front, this is offset by socially conservative families in suburban Concord, Strathfield, Burwood and Auburn. It is a delicate balance for any candidate.
    She’ll be lucky to crack 5%, as she is a virtual unknown. Has no real governing ideas or concepts to rally around.
    Similarly Labor’s Sally Sitou will also struggle, as like the prior candidate Sam Crosby, she seems to be repeating the same mistake of not making enough inroads with both the Korean and Italian/Greek communities. The fact that Labor preselection was rushed and with only 1 other contender, shows you Labor has given up on this seat (Keneally definitely would’ve ran here if she thought it was winnable, rather than moving to Fowler)
    I think the other factor is Fiona Martin is actually a very good candidate, and ticks a lot of boxes especially with voters in the area: she’s young, female, a professional, has good media presence (prior to elected, as a child psychologist on national morning tv), grew up in the area and is of Italian/Greek heritage.
    She was also able to muster the very large Korean community in Strathfield and consolidate the Italian/Greek communities in Concord through to Drummoyne.
    The feeling was regardless of any state or national swings, this electorate and area has changed. A lot more Audis and BMWs on the road, when there used to be Holdens and old Toyotas.
    Lot more Duplexes going up and the main promenades of Majors Bay Road and Great North Road have gone through affluent gentrification, along with the establishment of more or less gated-communities like Breakfast Point and Liberty Grove.
    When Laundy won the seat back in 2013, it was implicitly understood that whilst marginal due to areas like Silverwater, Auburn and Burwood the seat is more or less a Liberal lock for at least a decade, maybe 2.
    A Labor candidate would need to really think about how to corral all these different groups, whilst still holding a socially equitable agenda- it’s near impossible. That’s why I think Dr Brian Owler or Dr Charlie Teoh would’ve been better candidates for this area rather than wasting Owler in Bennelong. You’d need a professional with a good social grounding so either a Doctor or successful Business owner or Engineer.
    The Labor party really needs to stop putting forward hacks, who have little to no life experience and have only ever worked in Head Office or for MPs. They struggle on the hustings because of this real world experience. The old “I’ve got a family and I’m raising my kids in the area” will only get you so much of the vote, especially if you are anchored by luke-warm federal leader and an inoffensive/non-controversial incumbent member.


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